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1、外文翻譯PredictingCpateFinancialDistress：ReflectionsonChoiceBasedSampleBiasMaterialSource：EngineeringTechnology2009Auth:HarlanD.PlattAssessingthefinancialstrengthofcompanieshastraditionallybeenthedomainofpartiesexternaltothe

2、firmsuchasinvestscreditsauditsgovernmentregulatsotherstakeholders.Merecentlybecausecompetitionhasspawnedintimaterelationshipsbetweenmanufacturerstheircomponentsuppliersnowmanufacturersareconcernedaboutthefinancialhealtho

3、ftheirsuppliersviceversa.Fromasupplychainmanagementperspectiveifamanufacturercanhelponeofitssuppliersameliateproblemstherebyavoidbankruptcyitisinbothpartiesinteresttodoso.Relianceonreactivedistresssignalssuchasdelayedshi

4、pmentsproblemswithproductqualitywarningsfromthesuppliersbankobservationsmadeduringcompanyvisitstoindicateneartermfinancialdifficultiesreducestheoptionsthetimeavailabletoactremedythesituation.Anearlywarningsystemmodelthat

5、anticipatesfinancialdistressofsupplierfirmsprovidesmanagementofpurchasingcompanieswithapowerfultooltohelpidentifyitishopedrectifyproblemsbefetheyreachacrisis.Becauseoflongtermcontractswithedcertifiedsupplierslargemanufac

6、turersareincreasinglyinterestedinthefinancialhealthofthesesuppliersindertoavoiddisruptiontotheirownproductiondistributionschedules.Financialdistressisdefinedasalatestageofcpatedeclinethatprecedesmecataclysmiceventssuchas

7、bankruptcyliquidation.Infmationthatafirmisapproachingdistresscanprecipitatemanagerialactionstofestallproblemsbefetheyoccurcaninviteamergertakeoverbyamesolventbettermanagedenterprisecanprovideanearlywarningofpossiblefutur

8、ebankruptcy.Whilethereisabundantliteraturedescribingpredictionmodelsofcpatebankruptcyfewresearchefftshavesoughttopredictcpatefinancialdistress.Thelackofwkonfinancialdistressresultsinpartfromdifficultyindefiningobjectivel

9、ytheonsetoffinancialdistress.Bycontrastthebankruptcydateisdefinitivefinancialdatapritothatdatearereasonablyaccessible.Asaconsequenceoftheindeterminacyofwhenafirmbecomesfinanciallydistressed1992)turnaroundmanagement(Piatt

10、Platt2000).Usersofthesemodelsincludecreditsconcernedwithdefaultssuppliersfocusedonrepaymentpotentialinvests.Studiesofcpatedistresshavemostlyfocusedontheissueoffinancialrestructurings(GilsonJohnLang1990Wruck1990BrownJames

11、Moadian1992)managementturnover(Gilson1989).Therehavebeenlimitedattemptstoproducemodelsthatpredictfinancialdistress(Schipper1977Lau1987Hilletal.1996).Furthermanystudiesthatpurptedlyfocusonfinancialdistressbasedontheirtitl

12、einfactmodelbankruptcystatusbasedontheiroperationaldefinitionoffinancialdistress(FrydmanAltmanKao1985TheodossiouKahyaPhilippatos1996LinKoBlocher1999).Aroadblocklimitingefftstopredictfinancialdistresshasbeenthelackofacons

13、istentdefinitionofwhencompaniesenterthatstageofdecline.Samplesoffirmsthatmightbeconsideredtobeindistresshavebeencreatedbyexaminationofvariousmarkers:Lau(1987)Hilletal.(1996)uselayoffsrestructuringsmisseddividendpaymentsA

14、squithGertnerSfstein(1994)allowaninterestcoverageratiotodefinedistresssimilarlyWhitaker(1999)measuresdistressasthefirstyearinwhichcashflowislessthancurrentmaturitiesoflongtermdebtJohnLangter(1992)letthechangeinequitypric

15、edefinedistress.Theproblemwiththeseindicatsisthatsomecompaniesengaginginthoseactivitiesarenotactuallyindistress.Layoffsmayoccurinspecificdivisionsofotherwisehealthyenterprisesrestructuringsmayoccuratdifferentstagesofdecl

16、inetherearemanyexplanationsfmisseddividendpayments.Perhapsthesedefinitionaldifficultiescontributetothelack.ofsuccessofpriempiricalefftsregardingfinancialdistress.AnothergroupofresearchersnotablyDonaldBibeault(1998)lesHof

17、er(1980)describefinancialdistressfromaturnaroundmanagementperspective.BibeaultdescribesstagesthatdepictcompaniesmovingfromfinancialdistresstorecoveryincontrastHofertrackshealthyfirmssuccumbingtofinancialdistress.Thecente

18、rpieceofhisanalysisistheconceptofbreakevenoperatingincome.Likeavarietyofresearchersourwkexplesconditionswithinasingleindustry:autosuppliers.GuffeyMoe(1991)examinedtruckingPlattPlattPedersen(1994)consideredtheoilgasindust

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