發(fā)展中國家的債務(wù)漏洞一個新的債務(wù)陷阱區(qū)域與主題分析（英文版）

1、,,,,,,,,,,,,,,UNITED NA TIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT,,,,,,,,,,,,,DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:A NEW DEBT TRAP?,Volume I: Regional and Thematic Analyses,New York and Geneva, 2018,2,,DEBT VUL

2、NERABILITIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A NEW DEBT TRAP? VOLUME I: REGIONAL ANALYSES,,© 2017, United Nations,This work is available open access by complying with the Creative Commons licence created for intergovernmen

3、tal organizations, available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U

4、nited Nations or its officials or Member States.The designation employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations

5、concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper

6、 credits. This publication has not been formally edited.,United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.,UNCTAD/GDS/MDP/2017/4 (Vol I),3,,,ABOUT THE AUTHORS,ABOUT THE AUTHORS

7、,Bruno Bonizzi is Lecturer in Political Economy. He holds a PhD and a master’s degree from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. He has taught at City University and the University of

8、East London. His doctoral research focussed on pension funds and their investments in emerging market economies. Financialisation, pension funds and developing countries feature prominently in his current research proj

9、ects.Jan Toporowski is Professor of Economics and Finance at SOAS, University of London. He studied economics at Birkbeck College, University of London and the University of Birmingham, UK. He has written widely on fin

10、ancial macroeconomics. His major works include Michael Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography, volume I, Rendezvous in Cambridge 1899-1939 (2013).Why the World Economy needs a Financial Crash’ and other critical essays on

11、 Finance and Financial Economics.(2010), Theories of Financial Disturbance. An Examination of Critical Theories of Finance from Adam Smith to the Present Day. (2005) and The End of Finance: The Theory of Capital Market

12、 Inflation, Financial Derivatives, and Pension Fund Capitalism (2000).Annina Kaltenbrunner is Lecturer in the Economics of Globalisation and the International Economy at Leeds University Business School. She holds a Ph

13、D and MSc in Development Economies from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), a Postgraduate Certification in Econometrics from Birkbeck, and an undergraduate degree in Economics from the Vienna University

14、 of Economics and Business Administration. Her areas of research are development economics, international finance, monetary economics, international political economy, heterodox economics and methodology. She has publi

15、shed on exchange rate theory, currency internationalisation, financial integration, financialisation, and the Eurozone Crisis.Yuefen Li is Special Advisor on Economics and Development Finance at the South Centre, Genev

16、a. Previously, she was Head of Debt and Development Finance Branch, Division of Globalization and Development Strategies at UNCTAD. She has published widely in books and journals on debt, finance and other economic iss

17、ues and contributed extensively to UNCTAD publications and documents.,5,,,CONTENTS,About the authors Introduction References,............................................................................................

18、............................................ 3........................................................................................................................................ 7..................................

19、.................................................................................................... 13,SOVEREIGN DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICABRUNO BONIZZI AND JAN TOPOROWSKI ...............................

20、......................................... 15Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 16I.Trends in foreign debt o

21、f SSA............................................................................................................ 17A.The incidence of external debt in SSA in recent years ..............................................

22、.... 17B.The importance of long-term and private debt .............................................................. 21Causes and implications of recent changes in external debt of SSA countries.................. 25A

23、.Commodity cycles and exchange rates......................................................................... 25B.Monetary policy, and global financial integration......................................................

24、..... 28III. Debt Sustainability Criteria..................................................................................................... 31IV. Policy considerations and implications ..........................

25、....................................................... 32Interdependence with private sector foreign indebtedness........................................... 32B.The international monetary cycle ......................

26、............................................................. 33V. Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 34Appendi

27、x: The dependence of short-term debt on long-term financing possibilities ............... 35 Notes.........................................................................................................................

28、..................... 37References..................................................................................................................................... 38SOVEREIGN DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFR

29、ICA ADDITIONAL REPORT: INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES DEBT CONDITIONS AND PROJECTIONSBRUNO BONIZZI AND JAN TOPOROWSKI ........................................................................ 39Introduction .....................

30、.............................................................................................................. 40Debt projections .........................................................................................

31、................................... 45Concluding remarks ...................................................................................................................... 51Notes...................................

32、........................................................................................................... 52THE FINANCIALISATION OF NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS IN BRAZILANNINA KALTENBRUNNER...........................

33、................................................................. 53Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 54 I.

34、Finance, Financialisation and Development.......................................................................... 54The Changing Financial Behaviour of Large Brazilian NFCs ...........................................

35、..... 56A.The Liability Side of NFCs’ Balance Sheets................................................................... 56B.The Asset Side of NFCs’ Balance Sheets .....................................................

36、................. 61The Determinants of NFCs Financialisation in EMEs: SubordinatedInternationalisation .................................................................................................................

37、63IV. Conclusions............................................................................................................................. 65Notes.................................................................

38、............................................................................. 67References.................................................................................................................................

39、.... 69,CONTENTS,6,,DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A NEW DEBT TRAP? VOLUME I: REGIONAL ANALYSES,,CHINA’S DEBT PROBLEM AND RISING SYSTEMATIC RISKS: IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND STRUCTURAL PROB

40、LEMSYUEFEN LI.................................................................................................................... 73Introduction ........................................................................

41、........................................................... 74I.The size, composition and evolution of China’s debt burden............................................... 75II. The Achilles’ heel: high corporate and lo

42、cal government debt and their changing composition ............................................................................................................................ 76III. Reasons for the rapidly increasing

43、 debt burden ................................................................... 78A.US$ 590 billion stimulus package of 2008..................................................................... 78B.Shrinking global

44、demand ............................................................................................... 78C.Lower investment returns and A property bubble.......................................................... 78D.

45、Carry trade, illicit financial flows and financial liberalization .......................................... 80E.Fast expansion of shadow banking especially WMPs ................................................... 81S

46、pecial features of the Chinese economy to tolerate A high debt ratio .............................. 82A large, diversified and growing economy with a strong state role ............................... 82Debt is predomin

47、antly domestic and external debt is low............................................. 83C.Low central government debt ........................................................................................ 83D.Credit

48、 mainly coming from the banking sector .............................................................. 83E.High savings rate especially from households............................................................... 83F

49、.Capital control and government influence ..................................................................... 84G.Large foreign exchange reserves and significant liquid assets...................................... 8

50、4V. Weakening of buffers and increasing systemic risks ............................................................ 84Breathtaking speed of debt increase and diminishing returns.......................................

51、 85Non-performing loans from the corporate sector and local governments posea threat to the banking sector ........................................................................................ 85Systemic risks pose

52、d by shadow banking especially WMPs ........................................ 86D.Shrinking foreign exchange reserves ............................................................................. 87Persistent capital o

53、utflows is a systemic risk while sudden large outflowscould trigger a crisis....................................................................................................... 88Risks for China’s large and intercon

54、nected financial sector .......................................... 88G.Drastic and prolonged decline of investment returns .................................................... 89VI. Imminent debt crisis unlikely but h

55、igh time to address rising systemicvulnerabilities .......................................................................................................................... 90Notes.....................................

56、......................................................................................................... 93References.....................................................................................................

57、................................ 94,7,,INTRODUCTION,,Yet again, unsustainable international debt burdens haunt the developing world and are fast becoming a core obstacle to the international community delivering on it

58、s repeated promises to enable sustainable development finance.For the best part of two decades, the driving motor of the global economy has been debt, issued on a whim and traded for speculative purposes, rather tha

59、n backing productive and long-term investment, including into the structural transformation of developing economies. With the world’s total gross debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 250 per cent (BIS 2017:283) and global debt

60、stocks surpassing their record level at the onset of the global financial crisis (US$ 142 trillions) by over US$ 80 trillion in 2017, it is little wonder that international financial markets continue to show periodic

61、 nerves, and policy-makers in lead economies struggle to stabilize an increasingly volatile, fragmented and unbalanced global economy.Advanced economies still hold the largest share of these debt stocks. This is as i

62、t should be in a context of sluggish recovery from a global economic crisis and impending stagnation. Yet, such continued dependence of world economic growth on debt, for the most part fuelling short-term speculative

63、 rather than long-term productive investments, is a constant source of instability as well as escalating income inequities. Governments in the core economies have been unwilling to tackle the systematic removal of t

64、oxic debt burdens, accumulated in the run-up to the global financial crisis of 2007/08, from non-bank private sector balance sheets in a comprehensive and orderly manner. In addition, with an irrational addiction to

65、fiscal austerity, in particular in Europe, this has resulted in a surge of highly volatile international flows of cheap credit emanating from an excessive reliance on expansive monetary policies in these economies.No

66、t only have these policies failed to ensure a fast and lasting economic recovery based on closing the global demand gap, but the negative spill over effects of persistent deflationary tendencies in advanced economies

67、 and global financial fragility have by now had a profoundly disruptive impact on developing economies’ prospects of sustained structural transformation. In this context, the growing stock of debt incurred by develop

68、ing countries and transition economies - estimated to have reached $7.64 trillion in 2017, an increase of over 80 per cent since 2009 - is bound to become a serious liability for their immediate future.,While externa

69、l debt-to-GDP ratios remain relatively low by recent historical standards, on average rising from 21 percent in 2009 to 26 per cent by 2017, this masks much higher ratios in a growing number of individual countries,

70、in particular in the Caribbean and African regions. Debt service and payment burdens have also risen markedly over the past few years. For all developing countries, the ratio of debt service-to- exports rose from 8.7

71、 per cent in 2011 to 15.4 per cent in 2016, and, in poorer developing countries, debt service-to-government revenue ratio also climbed up steadily, from 5.7 per cent in 2008 to over 14 per cent by 2016. This increase

72、 in debt service burdens has hit the most vulnerable developing countries the hardest, including commodity exporters, countries dealing with large refugee inflows, and small island developing states.Further signs of

73、 trouble on the horizon include a growing share of short- relative to long-term debt in total external debt stocks, as well as a significant slowdown in the growth of international reserves. These grew by only 4 per

74、cent between 2009 and 2017, compared to 24 per cent between 2000 and 2008. The ratio of short-term debt to international reserves stood at just below 400 percent in 2016. While this is still substantially higher than

75、 the 230 per cent ratio at the start of the millennium, the relatively sharp decline since 2009, when this ratio stood at 580 per cent, is cause for additional concern (Report on external debt sustainability and deve

76、lopment 2017, UN Secretary General).The commodity price downturn that started in 2011 is, of course, a major factor in explaining the heightened dangers of sovereign debt crises across the developing world. Commodit

77、y price slumps have been accompanied by currency, banking and sovereign debt crises in vulnerable economies for centuries, and the current downturn is no exception. However, six years after the onset of the current s

78、lump, there are few, if any signs of a sustained recovery of commodity prices. While sector-specific aspects obviously vary, the common underlying reason for the prolonged stagnation of commodity prices is the lack o

79、f global macroeconomic policy coordination to facilitate a turn around. US expansion has been moderate and unstable which is unlikely to be helped by continued reliance on already overloaded monetary policy tools, i