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1、ClimatechangeBellweatherAstatisticalanalysisshowshowthingsreallyareheatingupAug11th2012|fromtheprinteditionAREheatwavesmecommonthantheyusedtobeThatisthequestionaddressedbyJamesHansenhiscolleaguesinapaperjustpublishedinth
2、eProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences.Theirconclusionisthattheyare—thedatatheydrawondonotevenincludethecurrentsccherthatisdryingupmuchofNthAmericathreateningitsharvest.Theteam’smethodofpresentationhoweverhascausedas
3、tiramongthosewhofeelthatscientificpapersshouldbedispassionateintheirdeliveryoftheevidence.Fthepaperinterestingthoughtheevidenceitdeliversisisfarfromdispassionate.DrHansenwhoisheadoftheGoddardInstitutefSpaceStudiesabranch
4、ofNASAthatisbasedinNewYkisapolemicistoftherisksofmanmadeglobalwarming.Despitehisjobrunningagovernmentlabatyhehasmanagedtogethimselfarrestedonthreeoccasionsfprotestingagainstthosehethinksarecausingsuchclimatechange.Heclea
5、rlystatesinthepaper’sintroductionthathewaslookingfawayofconveyinghisfearstoascepticalpublic.Someofthatscepticismisconnectedwiththefactthatalthoughchangesintheclimatewillinevitablyresultinchangesintheweatherribinganygiven
6、event—suchasalocalheatwave—toclimatechangeisimpossible.DrHansenhastherefetriedtogobeyondthestudyofindividualcausesbydemonstratingthatwhatwasonceunusualisnowcommon.LongerhottersummersTodosohehiscolleaguestook60years’wthof
7、data(theperiodfrom1951to2011)fromtheGoddardInstitute’ssurfaceairtemperatureanalysis.Thisanalysisdividesthepla’ssurfaceintocells250km(about150miles)acrossrecdstheaveragetemperatureineachcell.Theresearchersbroketheirdatain
8、tosixdecadelongblockscomparedthoseblocks’statisticalproperties.Theylookedinparticularatthethreemonthswhichconstitutesummerinthenthernhemisphere(JuneJulyAugust).Firsttheycreatedareferencevaluefeachcell.Thiswasitsaveragete
9、mperatureoverthosethreemonthsfrom195180.Thentheycalculatedhowmuchthetemperatureineachcelldeviatedfromthecell’sreferencevalueinanygivensummer.ThatdonetheyIfthemeanofeachcurvewerethesamesuchflatteningwouldimplybothmecoldpe
10、riodsmehotones.Butbecausethemeanisrisingtheeffectatthecoldendofthecurvesisdiminishedwhilethatatthehotendisenhanced.Theupshotismehotperiodsoflocalweather.Meoverthebellcurvemethodmakesitpossibletosayjusthowmuchmehotweather
11、thereis.DrHansendefinedextremeconditionsasthoseoccurringmethanthreestarddeviationsfromthemeanofhisreferencecurve.Inthatcurvethiswouldbeaneighthofapercentateachendwhichismelessthevalueinthecurvef195161.Nowadaysthoughextre
12、meconditions(atleastthosethatwouldhavebeenconsideredextremehalfacenturyago)canbefoundatanygiventimeinabout8%ofthewld.Localweatherpatternsdoofcoursehavelocalcauses.Tothatextenttheyareaccidental.ButDrHansen’sanalysissugges
13、tsthatclaimsthereismehotweatheraroundthanthereusedtobehavesubstancetoo.Nothinginhisanalysisspeaksofthecauseofthatsubstance.Thatisdeliberate.Ashesaysinthepaperhewantsthedatatospeakfthemselves—thoughheispersonallyconvinced
14、thatthecauseishumangeneratedemissionsofgreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxide.ButastheUnitedStatesbakesinwhatmayturnouttobearecdheatwavehehopeshemightnowpersuadethosefwhomglobalwarmingisasitwereonthebackburnertoagreethatitis
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