智能制造行業(yè)專題報告（五）鋰電設備，分化還未定型，淘汰正在發(fā)生，宜居危而思安

1、正文目錄一、政策寵兒，高額補貼下新能源汽車行業(yè)快速成長...............................................6二、退補與降價，對鋰電供應商和設備供應商的影響.............................................122.1補貼退坡，雙積分政策接力，行業(yè)景氣仍將持續(xù)..............................122.2補貼退坡的壓力傳導，鋰電設備供應

2、商毛利率下滑............................152.3本章小結(jié)................................................................20三、階段性產(chǎn)能過剩，結(jié)構(gòu)性機會仍相當可觀........................................................203.1現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)超過2020年的需求..............

3、............................203.2行業(yè)集中度持續(xù)提升，無效產(chǎn)能將持續(xù)出清..................................223.3電池技術(shù)分化，軟包電池擴張有望新增130億設備市場.......................243.4本章小結(jié)................................................................27四、投資建議

4、.........................................................................................................27五、風險提示.........................................................................................................27

5、六、附錄................................................................................................................28圖表34先導智能、贏合科技等產(chǎn)品毛利率變化(%).............................................................18圖表35寧德時代和國軒高科的研

6、發(fā)投入占比(%).................................................................19圖表36寧德時代及國軒高科的凈現(xiàn)比(%)............................................................................19圖表37先導智能等公司的經(jīng)營凈現(xiàn)金流(億元)及占收入比例(%)................

7、.........................20圖表38我國新能源汽車產(chǎn)量預測(臺)...................................................................................21圖表39我國動力鋰電池裝機量預測(GWh).....................................................................

8、.....21圖表40我國主要鋰電池供應商產(chǎn)能及規(guī)劃.........................................21圖表41我國動力電池生產(chǎn)廠家個數(shù)...............................................22圖表422016年以來我國動力鋰電池市場份額前十名................................22圖表432017年寧德時代等鋰電供應商產(chǎn)能利用率...

9、...............................23圖表44寧德時代24條產(chǎn)線投資設備清單..........................................23圖表45鋰電設備上市公司近期獲得大額設備訂單...................................23圖表46圓柱電池、方形電池、軟包電池內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)對比...............................24圖表47圓柱、方

10、形、軟包電池對比...............................................24圖表48兩種制造工藝的主要差別.................................................25圖表49卷繞和疊片工藝差別及設備差別...........................................25圖表502018年軟包電池大事件..................

11、................................25圖表512018年110月份三種電池出貨占比.......................................26圖表52軟包電池特有設備供應商.................................................26圖表53主要鋰電設備示意圖............................................