外文翻譯--發(fā)展中國家稅制改革下增值稅收入仿真模型

1、<p>　　3500單詞，17500英文字符，5100漢字</p><p>　　出處：Jenkins G P, Kuo C Y. A VAT revenue simulation model for tax reform in developing countries[J]. World Development, 2000, 28(4): 763-774.</p><p><

2、;b>　　外文文獻(xiàn)：　</b></p><p>　　A VAT Revenue Simulation Model for Tax Reform In Developing Countries</p><p>　　Glenn P. Jenkins，Chun-Yan Kuo</p><p>　　Abstract In this paper, we d

3、evelop a model to simulate policies and revenues for a value added tax (VAT) system in countries that have an indirect tax system containing sales, excise taxes, and tariffs. An application of the model is carried out fo

4、r Nepal, which has recently introduced the VAT to replace its sales tax system and rationalize its excise and tariff systems. The study shows that, in a developing country, tax policies that might seem very realistic and

5、 politically noncontroversial a</p><p>　　Key words：VAT revenue, Tax reform, model, Nepal</p><p>　?、? INTRODUCTION</p><p>　　Import tariffs and excise taxes often constitute the most

6、important revenue sources in developing countries. Because of growing concerns in recent years about economic efficiency and tax simplicity in a competitive and integrated world economy, many countries are lowering trade

7、 taxes and replacing distorted excise taxes with consumption-type VAT. With respect to the latter, one of the most important questions is the revenue potential of alternative designs of this new tax as governments attemp

8、t </p><p>　　The potential revenue which can be raised from the VAT depends on a number of factors, such as how broad the tax base will be and the extent to which businesses will comply with the tax. This iss

9、ue has not been widely discussed in the public finance literature. The main purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical framework which can be used to estimate the potential tax base and associated revenues for a V

10、AT in a typical developing country. The model developed for this purpose should be de</p><p>　　Ⅱ. ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO THE ESTIMATION OF A VAT BASE</p><p>　　The potential tax revenue of a V

11、AT is greatly dependent on the number and level of tax rates, the scope of the tax base, and the degree of tax compliance. The proposed VAT is assumed to be a multistage consumption tax based on the destination principle

12、, similar to a European-style VAT. The tax is applied to the sales of goods and services at all stages of the production and distribution chain. At each stage, vendors are able to claim tax credits to recover the tax the

13、y paid on their business inp</p><p>　　A common feature of the tax base in most VAT countries is to not tax a number of important goods or services because of political and socioeconomic considerations, techn

14、ical difficulties, or administrative complexity. These goods and services generally fall into two major categories, zero-rated and tax exempt. For zero-rated commodities, the VAT is not levied on the selling price of the

15、se items. The vendor, however, receives full credit for the VAT paid on inputs used in production. If zero-rate</p><p>　　For conceptual and technical difficulties, countries employing a VAT generally exempt

16、the domestic sales of financial intermediation and insurance services. For administrative and compliance simplicity, most VAT countries also exempt small businesses from the tax. When these goods and services are exempte

17、d, the VAT is not applied to these sales. Unlike zero-rated goods and services, vendors of exempt products are not eligible to receive any credit for the taxes paid on the inputs used to produce</p><p>　　Lik

18、e zero-rated sales, tax exemption can occur at either an intermediate or the retail stage. Consider the tax exemption at the retail stage where goods are sold directly to consumers. Only the value added at the retail sta

19、ge will not be subject to tax. In contrast, if tax exempt sales operate at the intermediate stages of the production-distribution chain, sales by the subsequent businesses acquiring the goods are effectively overtaxed to

20、 the extent that the inputs prior the exempt stage are no</p><p>　　Multiple tax rates are a common feature of some VAT systems in the developing countries. It is not uncommon to observe that a lower rate is

21、applied to goods or services which are regarded as the necessities of life. At the same time, there are luxury goods which may be subjected to a higher rate of VAT or alternatively, a non-increditable excise tax.</p&g

22、t;<p>　　Three alternative approaches can be used to estimate the tax base and associated revenues, for which input-output tables, national accounts and family expenditure survey data are often required. The first

23、approach is simply to construct an aggregate tax base. It begins with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the economy, which is the sum of the value added in the domestic production of all goods and services. Because we

24、are considering a destination principle VAT, we need to subtract exports an</p><p>　?、? GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING THE VAT BASE</p><p>　　This section explores the detailed methodology of

25、 the third approach described above. This approach depends heavily upon input-output tables. Input-output models are static in nature and, as such, do not allow for behavioral responses to policy changes. Thus, the VAT b

26、ase estimation discussed in this paper does not take into account behavioral responses due to the replacement of the current sales tax system with the VAT.</p><p>　　As was mentioned earlier, the VAT base can

27、 be estimated using the final expenditures made by various economic entities. Construction of the base can, therefore, begin with the data for domestic expenditures contained in the final demand matrix of the I-O tables.

28、 The final demand matrix generally contains a transaction matrix of a number of commodities by a number of final demand categories. The final demand categories may include many categories under each of the headings such

29、as personal consum</p><p>　　The starting point in calculating the VAT base is with the amount of personal and government expenditures. This amount is equivalent to the total expenditures shown in the I-O tab

30、les. Adjustments must however, be made for several factors in order to arrive at the VAT base. What follows is a description of the relevant deductions and adjustments.</p><p>　　Calculation of the current sa

31、les taxes</p><p>　　Suppose that a country has a manufacturer sales tax system and the government proposes to replace it with a VAT. The gross expenditures contained in the I-O tables, expressed at purchasers

32、' price, include the current sales taxes to be replaced. These taxes are imposed on the manufacturer's sale price of goods produced in the country and on the duty paid value of imported goods. Wholesale and retai

33、l trade margins are excluded from the tax base. Usually, these sales taxes apply also to a range of </p><p>　　In order to remove the current sales taxes paid directly by personal and government sectors from

34、each category of expenditures, one has to first construct the current sales tax base. This is accomplished by removing the retail and wholesale trade margins from purchasers' expenditures on each good or service, inc

35、lusive of sales tax. The expected current sales tax revenue from each commodity, say, the ith commodity( Ri), can be calculated by multiplying the derived tax base by the applicable tax r</p><p>　　where is

36、the sales tax-inclusive base of the ith commodity, is the taxable proportion of the ith commodity, and is the sales tax rate of the ith commodity. The magnitude of the taxable proportions depends upon the proportion of

37、 the legally taxable sales to the total sales of the items contained in each commodity category.</p><p>　　A further calculation must be made for the hidden (or indirect) sales taxes embedded in personal and

38、government expenditures. This represents the sales taxes which are levied on business inputs. These inputs are used in turn to produce goods and services which are ultimately sold to final consumers and governments. If s

39、ales taxes are assumed to be fully shifted forward, the taxes will be transformed into a higher price of the final goods and services. The I-O tables can be used to measure the in</p><p>　　Introduction of th

40、e value-added tax</p><p>　　The potential revenue of the VAT extended to the retail level can be calculated by summing domestic personal and government expenditures at retail prices. This does not include exp

41、enditures made by businesses since the taxes paid on business purchases are creditable. Thus, the starting point for calculating the VAT base is with the value of all goods and services (shown in the I-O tables) purchase

42、d by personal and government sectors, net of all current sales taxes. </p><p>　　This is the total potential tax base, which is then multiplied by the taxable proportions for each corresponding commodity in o

43、rder to arrive at the VAT base. At this point, the taxable proportions are determined by the tax policies and laws under consideration. For example, the proposed VAT may zero-rate or exempt certain goods or services. In

44、such cases, the full value of zero-rated or exempted goods and services purchased by individuals or governments has to be removed from the potential base</p><p>　　Where is the percentage wholesale margin fo

45、r the ith commodity, is the percentage retail margin for the ith commodity, is the total business inputs used in the production of the jth exempt sector under the proposed VAT, is the ratio of taxable inputs to the to

46、tal inputs used in the production of the jth exempt sector under the proposed VAT, and Bi ,ai and pi are defined as eqn..</p><p>　　Special attention should be paid to long-term residential rent paid by tenan

47、ts to landlords and imputed rent arising from the consumption flow by owner-occupied housing, which is normally presented as part of personal expenditures in the I-O tables or national accounts. This rent is often tax ex

48、empt and should be excluded from the tax base in order to avoid double taxation, since as an alternative, the VAT is sometimes levied on the purchase price of newly constructed dwellings. A portion of gro</p><

49、p>　　Finally, to arrive at a benchmark estimate of revenue yield, the tax base for each commodity item is then multiplied by the compliance ratio under the current sales tax system. This adjustment implies that the com

50、pliance rate for each commodity under the proposed VAT would not be different from that being subject to the current system. The compliance rate may be adjusted upward however if one believes that the VAT system would en

51、hance taxpayer compliance, or if the government can increase the le</p><p>　　Accrual versus actual revenue collections</p><p>　　The model developed so far provides an annual estimate of the VAT

52、paid by final consumers and governments. These estimates are presented on an accrual basis rather than the actual revenues received by the government due to the payment lags built into the VAT system. For example, the VA

53、T may be designed to provide a great deal of flexibility in filing requirements, depending on the size of the business. For large firms, filing may be required on a monthly basis. For smaller firms, filing may be a</p

54、><p>　　From a government’s perspective, it is necessary to transform the VAT estimates from an accrual to a collection basis. One can first segregate the above annual estimate of the VAT base into the individua

55、l ``value-added'' components for primary producers, manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, and other service sectors. Each of these components is then converted to a monthly basis using sales and other relevant d

56、ata. For example, the retail component is distributed to each month based on monthly </p><p>　　Ⅳ. CONCLUDING REMARKS</p><p>　　In this paper, a simulation model has been developed to estimate the

57、 VAT base and revenue potential for alternative policy options to replace the current sales tax, hotel tax, contract tax and entertainment tax. The model is fairly detailed and can be employed to assess the consequences

58、of key policy decisions. It can also be extended further to examine the relative price effects and tax incidence of sales tax reform. </p><p>　　The model is applied to the case of Nepal where statistical dat

59、a are not available in a consistent fashion or a published form. Hence, efforts had to be made to collect relevant expenditure data. This information was then organized in such a way as to facilitate the estimates of the

60、 tax base and the associated revenues. The preliminary results show that there is a significant amount of the current sales taxes imposed on business inputs in Nepal, but the general compliance rate of the current sal<

61、;/p><p>　　Efforts to improve compliance require a measurement of the compliance rate and its movement monitored over time. The use of a tax calculator model as outlined above will greatly facilitate the estimat

62、ion of the revenue impacts of such changes in compliance. Compliance, however, will come about only if the tax laws are designed to reduce the incentive for evasion and if the tax administration is strengthened to provid

63、e both service and enforcement.</p><p><b>　　中文譯文：</b></p><p>　　發(fā)展中國家稅制改革下增值稅收入仿真模型</p><p>　　摘要 本文將開發(fā)了一個模型來模擬間接稅制國家的增值稅稅收系統(tǒng)政策和收入，間接稅系統(tǒng)包含銷售稅、消費稅、關(guān)稅。這個模型在最近推出了增值稅取代銷售稅系統(tǒng),并

64、合理化消費稅和關(guān)稅系統(tǒng)的尼泊爾進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用，研究表明，在發(fā)展中國家，那些看起來非?，F(xiàn)實和政策上無可非議的稅收政策，可能會產(chǎn)生一個非常狹窄的稅基。如果一個發(fā)展中國家的政府想要在以后更多地依靠增值稅，它必須積極擴大增值稅稅基和加強其規(guī)范性。 關(guān)鍵詞：增值稅收入，稅制改革，模型，尼泊爾</p><p><b>　　1 引言</b></p><p>　　進(jìn)口關(guān)稅和消費稅

65、往往是構(gòu)成發(fā)展中國家最重要的收入來源。由于近年來對在競爭激烈的世界綜合經(jīng)濟體制中經(jīng)濟效益和稅制簡化的日益關(guān)注，許多國家都在降低貿(mào)易稅，并用消費型增值稅取代扭曲的消費稅。對于后者，最重要的一個問題就在于這個新稅種替代設(shè)計的潛在收入能否讓政府試圖取代或提高現(xiàn)行稅制產(chǎn)生的收入水平。</p><p>　　增值稅提升的潛在收入取決于很多因素，如稅基的廣泛程度、企業(yè)遵守稅收的程度等，但這些問題一直都沒有在公共財政文學(xué)中得到廣

66、泛的討論。本文的主要目的是提供一個分析框架，可以用來估算一個典型的發(fā)展中國家的潛在稅基及相關(guān)增值稅收入。為此開發(fā)的模型應(yīng)足夠詳細(xì)，以促進(jìn)替代稅方案的潛在收入估計，并幫助決策者做好稅收籌劃。為了說明有關(guān)情況，該模型將被運用于尼泊爾的經(jīng)濟。我們選擇尼泊爾是因為它是許多發(fā)展中國家的典型，有非常有限的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，而且是一個從高度扭曲的間接稅制改革為增值稅的國家。</p><p>　　2 增值稅稅基估計替代方法</p&

67、gt;<p>　　潛在的增值稅收入很大程度上取決于稅率大小、稅基范圍和納稅遵從度，提出的增值稅被認(rèn)為是一個基于目的地原則的多階段消費稅，類似于歐式增值稅。增值稅適用于銷售商品和服務(wù)的生產(chǎn)和分銷鏈的所有階段，在每個階段，供應(yīng)商都可以申請稅收抵免，以彌補他們購入項目已支付的進(jìn)項稅。因此,增值稅實際上是一個針對每個供應(yīng)商商品增值部分征稅的稅種，由于它只在最后一個環(huán)節(jié)的消費不退還稅款，所以性質(zhì)相當(dāng)于終端消費的零售稅。然而，以目的地

68、原則加征稅收，進(jìn)口商品同國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的商品一樣要征稅，而出口則不用繳納稅款。因此，增值稅基本上適用于國內(nèi)消費的商品和服務(wù)。</p><p>　　在大多數(shù)征收增值稅的國家中，一個普遍存在的特征就是考慮到政治和社會經(jīng)濟因素、技術(shù)困難或管理的復(fù)雜性等，對一些特殊的商品和服務(wù)不征收增值稅。這些商品和服務(wù)一般分為兩大類：零稅率和免稅。對于零稅率的商品或服務(wù)，其銷售價格中不包含增值稅部分，然而供應(yīng)商將支付含增值稅的用于生產(chǎn)的全部

69、投入。如果零稅率銷售發(fā)生在一個中間階段，購買者不會有任何款項從后續(xù)應(yīng)繳稅款中扣除。事實上，這將提供現(xiàn)金流成本并利于買賣雙方，而對政府凈收入的影響仍然為零。相比之下，如果零稅率銷售發(fā)生在零售階段，將有效地消除消費者的稅收負(fù)擔(dān)，只是政府也將失去從銷售這些商品和服務(wù)中享有的所有稅收收入。 考慮到概念和技術(shù)上的困難，采用增值稅的國家普遍對國內(nèi)金融中介和保險服務(wù)免征增值稅，同時為了簡化行政管理和納稅，大部分增值稅國家也對小企業(yè)免征增值稅。

70、當(dāng)這些商品和服務(wù)享受免征政策時，其銷售也不用繳納增值稅，只是與零稅率不同的是，供應(yīng)商不能夠抵扣任何用于生產(chǎn)商品或服務(wù)的成本。雖然供應(yīng)商增加值免征稅收，拒絕進(jìn)項稅抵免還是會增加廠商的生產(chǎn)成本。 同零稅率銷售一樣，免稅可能發(fā)生在任何一個中間或零售階段，而考慮到免稅商品在零售階段是</p><p>　　在發(fā)展中國家，多重稅率是增值稅制中的常見現(xiàn)象。對生活必需的商品和勞務(wù)多采取低稅率政策，同時，一些奢侈品可能面臨

71、較高的增值稅率或者繳納不可抵扣的消費稅。</p><p>　　三種方法可以用來估計增值稅稅基及相關(guān)的收入,但通常需要用到投入產(chǎn)出表、國民經(jīng)濟核算和家庭支出調(diào)查表中的數(shù)據(jù)。第一種方法是構(gòu)建一個簡單的累計稅基，它源于經(jīng)濟國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值，是國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的所有商品和服務(wù)增加值的總和?？紤]到增值稅目的地原則，在計算時需要在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的基礎(chǔ)上減去出口并增加進(jìn)口部分。對于消費型增值稅，該稅基也要減去私營企業(yè)總資本的構(gòu)成，而且要扣除

72、零稅率或免稅的消費支出。由于免稅的供應(yīng)商不能申請抵扣購進(jìn)原材料的進(jìn)項稅，稅基將不得不向上調(diào)整。第二種方法是匯總各工業(yè)部門的經(jīng)濟附加值。由于增值稅是一個目標(biāo)地型稅種，商品進(jìn)口和出口必須調(diào)整相應(yīng)的稅基，而且需要因存貨改變、商品實行零稅率或免稅做進(jìn)一步調(diào)整。按部門作出這些調(diào)整通常比較困難，因為出口和進(jìn)口值沒有現(xiàn)成的產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，即使整個經(jīng)濟總的調(diào)整是可能的，由部門提供的詳細(xì)信息卻沒有。第三種方法是計算消費者購買商品和服務(wù)的價值，由于該價值不包括出

73、口而包括進(jìn)口部分，所以自動考慮了增值稅目的地原理，然后增值稅稅基可以根據(jù)商品在終端消費環(huán)節(jié)的銷售價格進(jìn)行計算。這種方法也有利于分析增值稅的范圍或價格對消費者的影響,而這一問題通常是銷售稅改革中重要的政治辯論</p><p>　　3 估計增值稅稅基的一般方法</p><p>　　本節(jié)詳細(xì)探討了上述介紹的第三種方法，這種方法主要依賴于投入產(chǎn)出表，而投入產(chǎn)出模型本質(zhì)上是靜態(tài)的，因此不允許對政策的

74、變化做出行為反應(yīng)。所以本文所討論的對增值稅稅基的估算沒有考慮到由于更換現(xiàn)行的增值稅銷售系統(tǒng)而引起的相關(guān)變化。  如前所述，增值稅稅基可以使用各種經(jīng)濟實體的最終支出來估計。因此，稅基的確定可以從最終需求的投入產(chǎn)出表中獲取國內(nèi)支出的有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)。最終需求矩陣通常是一個包含不同種類商品的交易矩陣，最終需求類別可能包括很多，如個人消費、政府支出、投資、進(jìn)口以及出口等。其中，個人消費是指那些不從事商業(yè)性質(zhì)生產(chǎn)的為生存獲取商品和服務(wù)的個

75、人或家庭或其他實體存在的消費；政府支出包括各級政府的經(jīng)常項目和資本開支，除由同一級別的政府部門支付的增值稅不一定會增加政府凈收入外，它同增值稅制度下的個人消費還是有一些相同之處的；由于增值稅允許企業(yè)抵扣包括資本投資在內(nèi)的所有購買支出的進(jìn)項稅額，投資不計入基數(shù)計算；出口也因增值稅目的地型的特點被排除在外，進(jìn)口卻由于購買其他最終需求類別包括進(jìn)口而被忽略。 計算增值稅稅基本的基礎(chǔ)在于個人和政府開支的多少，這個金額相當(dāng)于投入產(chǎn)出表中的總

76、開支的投入占用產(chǎn)</p><p><b>　　現(xiàn)行銷售稅計算</b></p><p>　　假設(shè)一個國家適用制造業(yè)銷售稅系統(tǒng)而政府提出改征增值稅，在投入產(chǎn)出表中以購買價格顯示的總支出包括被替換的現(xiàn)行銷售稅。這些稅種都是針對制造商在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)和進(jìn)口貨物的完稅價值，批發(fā)和零售貿(mào)易利潤被排除在稅基之外。通常，這些銷售稅也適用于各種貨物和服務(wù)的生產(chǎn)和分配使用的中間投入和資本貨物。

77、為了消除目前銷售稅由個人和政府直接支付的每類支出，首先要構(gòu)造目前銷售稅基,這可以通過移除零售和批發(fā)貿(mào)易差額連同購買人支出的每一種商品或服務(wù),包括銷售稅。預(yù)期當(dāng)前每一種商品的銷售稅收，如第i種商品（Ri），可以用派生稅基乘以適用稅率和應(yīng)稅的比例計算：</p><p>　　其中是第i種商品銷售含稅稅基，為第i種商品的應(yīng)稅比例，是第i種商品的銷售稅率，應(yīng)納稅的比例幅度取決于各類商品中項目的總銷售額的合法應(yīng)稅銷售額比重。

78、 對隱藏（或間接）的個人和政府支出稅費必須做進(jìn)一步的計算，即表示要對商業(yè)投入征稅，而這些投入將用于生產(chǎn)出售給最終消費者和政府的商品和服務(wù)，如果銷售稅被認(rèn)為是完全向前轉(zhuǎn)移的，將導(dǎo)致最終產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的價格上漲。投入產(chǎn)出表可以用來測量由最終消費者和政府購買的商品和服務(wù)的間接銷售稅目。上述預(yù)期的直接和間接銷售的所有商品和實體的稅收通常是不等于實際稅收，這是由一系列因素構(gòu)成的，如壞賬準(zhǔn)備、小進(jìn)口免稅優(yōu)惠、偷稅漏稅以及小供應(yīng)商的免稅等。通過對

79、這些因素的適當(dāng)比率調(diào)整，預(yù)期的稅收收入將等于實際稅收，而這個比率就是簡單的實際收入比預(yù)期收入。當(dāng)然，這個比率可能因商品的不同而有所差異，這取決于市場條件和其他因素。</p><p><b>　　增值稅簡介</b></p><p>　　延伸到零售層面的增值稅潛在收入可以通過加總國內(nèi)個人和政府基于零售價格的支出計算，這不包括由企業(yè)繳納的稅款，因為企業(yè)采購支付的稅款是可抵扣

80、的支出。因此，計算增值稅稅基的基礎(chǔ)是個人和政府部門購買所有商品和服務(wù)的價值（投入產(chǎn)出表），覆蓋了現(xiàn)行所有的銷售稅。</p><p>　　這就是潛在的總稅基，乘以每種商品相應(yīng)的應(yīng)納稅比例即可得到有關(guān)稅基。此時，正在考慮通過稅收政策和法律確定納稅比例，如建議某些商品或服務(wù)增值稅零稅率或免稅，這種情況下，個人或政府購買的零稅率或免稅商品和服務(wù)的全部價值必須從稅基中扣除。然而，免稅項目的進(jìn)項成本支出是不可以抵扣的，所以需

81、要就供應(yīng)商不能申請抵扣的進(jìn)項稅額的多少做額外調(diào)整。總之，整個潛在增值稅稅基可以表述為:</p><p>　　其中是第i種商品的批發(fā)毛利百分比,是第i種商品的零售賣力百分比，表示在生產(chǎn)免征增值稅的建議下，第j種產(chǎn)品的總投入,表示相應(yīng)的應(yīng)稅輸入的比例。 應(yīng)特別關(guān)注長期出租房和自用住房消費流量產(chǎn)生的租金，這通常代表了個人在投入產(chǎn)出表或國民經(jīng)濟核算中的一部分。這個租金往往是免稅的，而且應(yīng)被排除在稅基之外，以避免重

82、復(fù)征稅。作為一種替代稅種，有時也對新建住宅的購買征收增值稅。然而，某些現(xiàn)金房租和估算房租由于存在維修、財產(chǎn)保險、某些公用事業(yè)這些應(yīng)稅支出而應(yīng)征收增值稅。應(yīng)當(dāng)指出，土地的價值被排除在投入產(chǎn)出表和國民經(jīng)濟核算中，因為它并不代表增值。實際上，土地的價值通常包含在房屋的買家中，所以當(dāng)新房要繳納增值稅時，個人支出必須向上調(diào)整至全價。政府部門的總支出也要做一些調(diào)整，因為多數(shù)情況下它的生產(chǎn)和增值免征增值稅。另一方面，為政府部門的需要而投入的生產(chǎn)要課稅

83、，因此，保留政府部門在稅基中的部分。</p><p>　　最后，為了獲得一個基準(zhǔn)的稅收估計，用每種商品的稅基乘以現(xiàn)行銷售稅制的適當(dāng)稅率。這種調(diào)整意味著每種商品適用的增值稅率將不同于現(xiàn)行稅制，如果有人認(rèn)為增值稅體系會提高納稅人的遵從度或政府能夠提高行政執(zhí)法水平，則合規(guī)稅率可能會向上調(diào)整。相反，如果逃稅現(xiàn)象泛濫，合規(guī)稅率就可能會下調(diào)。增值稅收入的預(yù)期總經(jīng)濟將等于經(jīng)過調(diào)整的總稅基乘以擬定的增值稅率。</p>

84、<p>　　權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制與實際收入</p><p>　　目前提出的模型提供了一個由最終消費者和政府支付增值稅的年度預(yù)算，這些估計數(shù)據(jù)都是以權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制為基礎(chǔ)的,而不是政府收到的增值稅體系下延期支付的實際收入。例如,增值稅可能根據(jù)企業(yè)的業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模，在申報要求方面提供很大的靈活性，對于大型企業(yè)可能要求每月申報，而對于規(guī)模較小的企業(yè),可能允許以一個季度或年度為申報期進(jìn)行申報。某些類型的企業(yè)，如出口商有可能選擇在

85、每月的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行申報，以提前申請進(jìn)項稅抵免。此外，所有納稅人都可能要等到月底的報告期內(nèi)進(jìn)行納稅申報。</p><p>　　從政府的角度來看,有必要將以權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制為基礎(chǔ)估計的增值稅轉(zhuǎn)變成以收付實現(xiàn)制為基礎(chǔ)的估計值?？梢允紫葘⑸鲜鲈鲋刀惸甓阮A(yù)算按初級生產(chǎn)者、制造商、批發(fā)商、零售商和其他服務(wù)業(yè)劃分為單個的“增值”部分，然后每個行業(yè)再依據(jù)銷售和其他相關(guān)資料轉(zhuǎn)換成每月的增值數(shù)據(jù)。例如,零售商根據(jù)每月的零售銷售數(shù)據(jù)分配到每月

86、基數(shù)上，這應(yīng)當(dāng)反映出在生產(chǎn)和分銷渠道的季節(jié)性模式，而且應(yīng)給予每種類型的納稅人適當(dāng)?shù)难悠谑湛顧?quán)限，由此產(chǎn)生的收入可以轉(zhuǎn)換成實際收入，而這種轉(zhuǎn)換對一個國家首次引進(jìn)增值稅顯得特別重要。</p><p><b>　　4 結(jié)束語</b></p><p>　　本文開發(fā)了一個仿真模型來估算增值稅稅基以及取代現(xiàn)行銷售稅、酒店稅、契稅和娛樂稅的選擇稅制的潛力收入。該模型很詳細(xì)，可以用來

87、評估關(guān)鍵政策的效果，還可以加以延伸以檢查稅制改革的相對價格效應(yīng)和稅收負(fù)擔(dān)。</p><p>　　由于該模型應(yīng)用到尼泊爾的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)無法用統(tǒng)一的方式或公布中取得，必須努力去收集相關(guān)支出數(shù)據(jù)，然后加以整理用于估算稅基和相關(guān)收入。初步結(jié)果表明，在尼泊爾有大量的業(yè)務(wù)投入實行現(xiàn)行的銷售稅，但其一般遵從率僅僅只在58.6％左右，14％的娛樂稅收和酒精飲料、煙草品、水泥以外的其他商品的消費稅也不利于加強稅收執(zhí)法力度。這種對增值稅

88、收入估算模型的分析，清楚地表明了擴寬稅基對潛在收入的巨大影響，也指出了需要提高納稅遵從的某些地區(qū)。一個低收入國家的增值稅設(shè)計和操作很重要，因為它沒有稅收系統(tǒng)可以有效的應(yīng)用于大部分支出，而且相對于國民經(jīng)濟中的其他部門，小型現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)通常征稅較沉重，它們需要以最少扭曲的方式進(jìn)行稅收管理。</p><p>　　努力提高納稅遵從度要求確定合理的稅率并隨時進(jìn)行檢測。上述稅收估算模型的運用將大大推動符合這種變化的收入影響估算