外文翻譯--為什么80年后杜邦分析模型還有熱衷他的粉絲

1、<p>　　中文2800字，1500單詞，8000英文字符</p><p><b>　　原文 </b></p><p>　　Why the 80-year-old DuPont model still has fans</p><p>　　Material Source: CFO Magazine January 1, 1998<

2、;/p><p>　　Author: Robin Goldwyn Blumenthal</p><p>　　Much has been said in favor of new financial metrics that marry such elements as growth rate and stock price to a company's inner financial m

3、echanisms. Like old friends, however, some seasoned metrics continue to deliver value if only by virtue of familiarity and simplicity. The most prominent among these is the DuPont system of financial analysis. Developed

4、in 1919 by a finance executive at E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co., of Wilmington, Delaware, in the days when the chemical giant cooked up f</p><p>　　The DuPont model is a way of visualizing the information s

5、o that everyone can see it," says accounting and MIS professor Stephen Jablonsky of Penn State University. A typical DuPont chart resembles a chart drawn to mark the progress of competitors in a tennis or basketball

6、 tournament. Entries that ultimately make up before-tax return on investment include cost of goods sold, selling expenses, administrative expenses, inventories, accounts receivable, and cash. At successive stages, they a

7、re adde</p><p>　　In his new book, The Manager's Guide to Financial Statement Analysis, to be published in February by John Wiley & Sons, Jablonsky stresses DuPont's enduring appeal. "Where f

8、inancial people are integrated into the business," says Jablonsky, "they use traditional measures of evaluating performance, such as profit margins, return on assets, and return on equity, all contained in the

9、DuPont model." </p><p>　　Outside the cloistered confines of finance departments, where financial performance has not taken root among rank-and-file workers, the DuPont model can be very effective. DuPon

10、t analysis "is a good tool for getting people started in understanding how they can have an impact on results," says Doug McCallen, budgets and forecasts manager at construction and mining equipment maker Cater

11、pillar Inc., in Peoria, Illinois, where performance has turned around since the company launched a reorganization</p><p>　　Using return on assets as a primary performance measure, and setting targets for eac

12、h part of the organization, Caterpillar can determine when a problem is related to operating efficiency versus asset utilization. The results have been phenomenal, McCallen says. ROA has reached double digits, accompanie

13、d by record profits in 13 of the past 15 quarters, as of last September 30. </p><p>　　Nucor Corp., a $4 billion-a-year producer of steel and steel products, has been using return on assets employed to measur

14、e performance in its facilities for years, with salutary results. "Number one, it's simple," says Sam Siegel, vice chairman and chief financial officer of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company. "

15、All of our people understand it." Each facility aims for a 25 percent or greater return on assets employed, which is calculated before the effects of federal income tax, interest</p><p>　　Thoughts from

16、time to time about trading DuPont in for something else have yet to convince Siegel that something else is better. Alternatives, in his view, won't improve the company's incentives program. Nucor's overall pr

17、ofit-sharing plan is based on a 10 percent share of companywide pretax profits, and Siegel notes proudly that Nucor has consistently paid that amount into the plan since 1966, a year after new management took over after

18、Martin Marietta sold its stake in the company. </p><p>　　ROOM FOR ERROR </p><p>　　The performance model that a company chooses should depend on its culture, Siegel contends. Lacking that affinit

19、y, models with extra bells and whistles will not fill the gap. Not so, say proponents of economic value added EVA, who argue that the traditional ratio-based DuPont model suffers from a serious, if not fatal, flaw. They

20、charge that guesswork inherent in generally accepted accounting principles leaves room for managers to make shortsighted decisions that boost return on investment witho</p><p>　　Gary John Previts, a professo

21、r of accountancy at Case Western Reserve University's Weatherhead School of Management, in Cleveland, does not agree that DuPont is significantly more vulnerable to manipulation than newer methods. "Some would s

22、ay the income behind return on investment is an estimate and not a fact, because income requires judgment," says Previts. "Depreciation is a guess and accrual-based measures are somewhat guessy." But by th

23、e same token, he observes, "people who believe in estim</p><p>　　Professor Jablonsky also cautions that all models that require numerous calculations and adjustments create opportunities for manipulatio

24、n. At Caterpillar and Nucor, subjects of research projects by Jablonsky for the Financial Executives Research Foundation the research arm of the Financial Executives Institute, methodology takes a backseat to clarity. &q

25、uot;Performance information is widely shared," Jablonsky says, "and it's tied to compensation, so people take an interest in the numbers." </p><p>　　From an operating standpoint, managers

26、may not need to know how well they are utilizing capital from day to day, according to Dale Flesher, Arthur Andersen professor of accounting at the University of Mississippi, Oxford. "Under the traditional measure,

27、managers can't know whether they've created value for the firm, not without knowing the cost of capital," Flesher observes. "The question is, Do they care?" Without control over the company's c

28、ost of capital, he argues, a divisional manager may n</p><p>　　This issue spawns sharp disagreement with proponents of cost-of-capital-based metrics, however. "One of the beauties of EVA is that the mes

29、sage is easily communicated to all levels of the business," says Kenneth Stephens, general auditor at Harnischfeger Industries Inc., a capital goods manufacturer based in Milwaukee. "With EVA, you are trying to

30、 make prudent business decisions to maximize your financial returns while minimizing the assets employed to achieve that. So you can talk to a salesper</p><p>　　MIX 'N MATCH </p><p>　　The Du

31、Pont model falls short, say some critics, because it is not a great tool for predicting the future or for tracking costs. "It is designed to give you a picture of where you've put your resources," says Jack

32、 Kreischer, president of the Pennsylvania Institute of CPAs and managing director of Kreischer, Miller & Co., a public accounting firm in Horsham, Pennsylvania. A DuPont model can tell you, for example, the extent to

33、 which you've invested in machinery to build widgets, but it offers litt</p><p>　　Flexibility, a hallmark of the expandable DuPont model, can enable finance executives to combine return on investment wit

34、h measures that do incorporate growth prospects. "DuPont can be hooked up to a variety of value-based measures," says Eric Olsen, vice president of The Boston Consulting Group Inc., which has developed cash flo

35、w metrics of its own, including cash flow return on investment, or CFROI. </p><p>　　Some securities analysts routinely use DuPont in their state-of-the-art environment. "The DuPont method has the advant

36、age of being much easier to use than other forms of analysis that depend on information buried in footnotes," says analyst Jim Stoeffel of Salomon Smith Barney, in New York. </p><p>　　Nucor's decisi

37、on to stick with DuPont reflects a pragmatic view of metrics. "I don't say it's the best way," Siegel concedes. "All I say is that it has worked for us." </p><p>　　Robin Goldwyn B

38、lumenthal, a former reporter for the Wall Street Journal, writes frequently about business. </p><p>　　THE FIRST REENGINEER </p><p>　　The DuPont model of financial analysis was dreamed up by F. D

39、onaldson Brown, an electrical engineer who joined the giant chemical company's treasury department in 1914. A few years later, DuPont bought 23 percent of the stock of General Motors Corp. and gave Brown the task of

40、cleaning up the carmaker's tangled finances--in effect, America's first large-scale reengineering effort. Much of the credit for GM's ascension afterward belongs to Brown's systems of planning and control

41、, according to no l</p><p><b>　　譯文 </b></p><p>　　為什么80年后杜邦分析模型還有熱衷他的粉絲</p><p>　　資料來源:CFO雜志1998年1月 作者:羅賓高德溫布盧門撒爾</p><p>　　很多人都贊成在公司的財務(wù)內(nèi)部機(jī)制中用新的財務(wù)指標(biāo)代替增長

42、速度和股票價格等因素。然而,就像老朋友,一些經(jīng)驗豐富的指標(biāo)憑借著其熟悉和簡單的優(yōu)點(diǎn)繼續(xù)使用,評價價值。其中最突出的是杜邦財務(wù)分析體系。它是在1919由金融長官E.I.杜邦在美國特拉華州威爾明提出發(fā)展起來的。在當(dāng)化工巨頭炮制研究金融公式以及碳?xì)浠衔锬嵌螘r期里,杜邦系統(tǒng)仍然幫助許多公司的資產(chǎn)報酬率和投資回報率等其的關(guān)鍵部分更加形象化。 </p><p>　　“杜邦模型是一種可視化的信息,這樣能讓每個人都可以看懂理解

43、。”賓夕法尼亞州立大學(xué)會計和管理信息系統(tǒng)教授Stephen Jablonsky這么說。一個典型的杜邦圖表象一張記錄在網(wǎng)球或籃球比賽進(jìn)展情況的圖表。參與的各個項目包括銷售成本,銷售費(fèi)用,管理費(fèi)用,存貨,應(yīng)收賬款和現(xiàn)金最終組成稅前投資收益。在一個個連續(xù)的階段,他們加,減,除,或乘直到達(dá)到凈資產(chǎn)收益率。 </p><p>　　即將在二月出版的由John Wiley & Sons一起編著的新書《基金經(jīng)理的財務(wù)報表

44、分析指南》中,Jablonskyy講述了杜邦公司的持久魅力?！叭绻攧?wù)金融人員都融入相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)中” ,Jablonsky解釋說,“他們使用傳統(tǒng)的方法評估財務(wù)業(yè)績,比如利潤率,資產(chǎn)回報,股本回報率,都在杜邦模型中?！?</p><p>　　在除了財政部門以外,在和金融隔絕的范圍內(nèi),在財務(wù)業(yè)績沒有采取等級的普通業(yè)務(wù)工作之間,杜邦分析法是十分有效的。杜邦分析法“是一個讓人們開始了解他們?nèi)绾慰梢詫Y(jié)果產(chǎn)生重大影響的工具”

45、,在伊利諾斯州皮奧里亞市建筑和采礦設(shè)備制造商卡特彼勒公司的預(yù)算和預(yù)測經(jīng)理這么說。該公司在1991年進(jìn)行了債務(wù)重組并且財務(wù)業(yè)績也見有起色。也就是在這一年,該公司開始重視了業(yè)務(wù)中具體各個部分的問責(zé)制?！岸虐钅Ｐ椭С植⑶壹訌?qiáng)問責(zé)制” 麥卡倫說。 </p><p>　　利用資產(chǎn)收益率是評價企業(yè)業(yè)績的一個方法,可以根據(jù)資產(chǎn)收益率然后給企業(yè)各個部門設(shè)定目標(biāo)?？ㄌ乇死绽觅Y產(chǎn)收益率解決有關(guān)經(jīng)營效率和資產(chǎn)利用率的問題。麥卡倫說:

46、結(jié)果是驚人的。截至去年9月30日,在過去15個季度里經(jīng)過,更新了13次利潤記錄,資產(chǎn)收益率已經(jīng)達(dá)到了兩位數(shù)。 </p><p>　　紐柯公司,年產(chǎn)值40億美元鋼和鋼材的生產(chǎn)商,多年以來一直使用資產(chǎn)報酬率來測量其設(shè)施的性能,并取得了良好的成果?！暗谝?它十分簡單,”北卡羅萊納州夏洛特公司的首席財政官和副主席山姆西格爾這么說,“通俗易懂,大家都能理解。”在排除所得稅,利息費(fèi)用和企業(yè)開銷影響下計算得出每項租用的資產(chǎn)都要

47、求25%或者更高的資產(chǎn)報酬率。 </p><p>　　時不時的在思考能不能有一種更好的方法去說服西格爾來代替杜邦分析法。在西格爾看來,那些替代的法案不會提高公司的獎勵方案。西格爾自豪地說紐柯公司的整體利潤共享計劃是基于全公司稅前利潤的百分之十,紐柯公司自1966 即Martin Marietta 出售了其在股權(quán)手中一年后新的經(jīng)營階層接手后,按計劃一貫支付金額。 </p><p><b

48、>　　錯誤的用法 </b></p><p>　　一個公司選擇分析模型應(yīng)取決于其文化,西格爾Siegel 辯解說。缺乏的親和力,為了更加吸引人而附加一些不必要的先進(jìn)特色的模型填補(bǔ)了空白區(qū)域。事實(shí)并非如此,經(jīng)濟(jì)價值的支持者說附加值(EVA)認(rèn)為傳統(tǒng)的比率為基礎(chǔ)的杜邦模型有嚴(yán)重的的缺陷,也許不是致命的。他們控告杜邦模型在公認(rèn)會計原則下所固定的推斷空間使管理者短視的決策,提高在業(yè)務(wù)上沒有真正改善投資回報

49、。“使用比率方法很容易誤導(dǎo)人們,使管理層與股東之間產(chǎn)生矛盾,” 在金融機(jī)構(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)的高級副總裁斯特恩斯圖爾特公司的Dennis Uyemura提醒說,這家咨詢公司在1983年研究形成了EVA總體框架。EVA模型的通過由決策產(chǎn)生的回報超過資本成本的良好業(yè)績- 股東創(chuàng)造價值的公式在企業(yè)屆取得了良好的口碑。它同時也將費(fèi)用例如研究和開發(fā)的費(fèi)用等分類到資本投資中。 </p><p>　　在克利夫蘭的凱斯西儲大學(xué)維澤赫德管理學(xué)院

50、的會計教授Gary John Previts并不同意杜邦分析法比其他新的方法更容易操作。“有人會說,投資回報率背后的收入只是一個估計的收入,不是確實(shí)存在的,因為收入需要作出鑒定,”Previts說,“折舊是一個猜測,以權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制為基礎(chǔ)的方法也有些假象的?！钡?同樣的道理,他指出,“人們相信在估計現(xiàn)金流量估計有他們的未來,誰能夠準(zhǔn)確估計?涉及主觀猜測也是如此?！?</p><p>　　Jablonsky教授也告誡

51、:所有的模型,需要大量的計算和調(diào)整來創(chuàng)造實(shí)踐的機(jī)會。在卡特彼勒和紐柯公司,由Jablonsky領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的學(xué)科研究項目:財政董事研究基金 (財政執(zhí)行官研究所的研究機(jī)構(gòu)),研究方法采用比較透視清晰的方法。 “由于性能數(shù)據(jù)廣泛共享,”Jablonsky說,“也和報酬聯(lián)系在一起,因此人們會在這些數(shù)字的興趣?！?</p><p>　　根據(jù)密西西比牛津大學(xué)安達(dá)信會計學(xué)教授 Dale Flesher 來說從經(jīng)營的角度來看,管理者可

52、能并不需要知道他們?nèi)绾卫煤妹恳惶斓馁Y金。用傳統(tǒng)的方法,管理人員并不能知道他們是否已經(jīng)為公司創(chuàng)造的價值,也不知道資金成本。Flesher指出?！皢栴}是,他們關(guān)心嗎?”如果沒有對公司的資本成本控制,他認(rèn)為,一個部門經(jīng)理可能只需要知道他所遇到問題的百分之十五,例如,留下對企業(yè)的水平的計算。 </p><p>　　這個問題滋生卻與以資本成本為基礎(chǔ)的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的支持者產(chǎn)生了分歧。 “就EVA其中的一個優(yōu)點(diǎn)來說就對在相同水平

53、上的企業(yè)來說,他們的信息是很容易相互溝通交流的” 哈尼斯菲工業(yè)公司的審計長Kenneth Stephens如是說,這家公司是密爾沃基市主要的物資制造商。“使用EVA時,你需要審慎做商業(yè)決定在取得最大化的財務(wù)報酬的同時最小限度地使用資產(chǎn)。因此,你可以告訴銷售人員為什么你要把寄售庫存安排到位,或著問一個工頭他是否確實(shí)需要一臺機(jī)床?！?</p><p><b>　　混合與搭配 </b></p

54、><p>　　一些評論說杜邦模型功虧一簣,因為它不是一個預(yù)測將來或跟蹤成本很好的工具。“他設(shè)計了一張資源圖片,告訴你們把你們的資源用在哪里?！辟e夕法尼亞州注冊會計師協(xié)會主席Jack Kreischer和在賓夕法尼亞州霍舍姆的米勒會計師事務(wù)所董事總經(jīng)理Kreischer都這么說。Kreischer認(rèn)為杜邦模型可以告訴你很多,例如,你在何種程度上建立了機(jī)械部件的投資,但它缺少對增長前景的洞察力以及整個過程中的成本。同樣道

55、理,杜邦分析法缺少包括日益突出對無形資產(chǎn)投資回報的計算的一些方法。 </p><p>　　靈活性,是具有擴(kuò)展性的杜邦模型的一大特點(diǎn),使財務(wù)管理人員能把相應(yīng)的措施方法將經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景與投資回報相結(jié)合?！岸虐罘治鲶w系可以與各種各樣以價值為基礎(chǔ)的方法掛鉤,”波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)有限公司副主席Eric Olsen這么說,該公司開發(fā)其自己的現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo),包括投資的現(xiàn)金流回報,或著CFROI。 </p><p&g

56、t;　　一些證券分析員經(jīng)常使用杜邦分析法在最新的的環(huán)境里?！岸虐罘椒ㄅc其他依賴腳注形式的信息分析方法具有很大的優(yōu)勢,更容易被用來的分析使用,”紐約所羅門美邦的分析師Jim Stoeffel說。 </p><p>　　紐柯公司堅持使用杜邦指標(biāo)的決定反映了現(xiàn)實(shí)中務(wù)實(shí)的看法。“我不說這是最好的方式,”西格爾承認(rèn)說,“但我要說的是它為有助于我們的工作。” </p><p>　　前華爾街日報記者Ro

57、bin Goldwyn Blumenthal經(jīng)常撰于此寫有關(guān)的報道。 </p><p><b>　　首次重新設(shè)計 </b></p><p>　　杜邦財務(wù)分析模型是由F. Donaldson Brown想出來的,他于1914年加入巨人化工公司的財務(wù)部。幾年后,杜邦公司收購了通用汽車公司23%的股票,交給布朗一項棘手的財務(wù)工作:解決汽車制造商混亂的財務(wù)狀況??實(shí)際上,是在