分析師預(yù)測偏差與股價崩盤風(fēng)險的關(guān)系研究.pdf

1、≮毒浙爐z角矢乎碩士學(xué)位論文(專業(yè)學(xué)位)作者姓名：孫曉冬專業(yè)學(xué)位類別：金融碩士專業(yè)學(xué)位領(lǐng)域：無研究方向：指導(dǎo)教師：實(shí)務(wù)導(dǎo)師：朱晉羅旭峰提交日期：2018年5月浙江工商大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文分析師預(yù)測偏差與股價崩盤風(fēng)險的關(guān)系研究STUDYONANALYSTFORECASTBIASESANDSTOCKPIUCECRASHABSTRACTTilestockpricecrashmeansthatthelistedcompany’Sshareprice

2、hasplummetedrapidlyanddramaticallyinaveryshortperiodoftimeandwithoutanysignsofwarningThisisanimportantphenomenoninthecapitalmarket，whichseriouslyjeopardizestheinvestors’wealthandthestableandhealthyoperationofthecapitalma

3、rketIfthecompany’Ssharepricecollapses，ItwillevencausefinancialdamagetotherealeconomyInformationasymmetryisoneoftheimportantcausesofthestockpricecollapseriskUndertheconditionthatChina’Sinformationdisclosuresystemisflaweda

4、ndmarketin—fomaationisasymmetric，thestockprice’crashriskisoftenmorepronounced一Duetotheprevalenceofinformationasymmetryinthemarket，analystscanactasinformationmediatorstotransferinformationandmitigateinformationasymmetryTh

5、erefore，intoday’Smarket，analystsplayanimportantroleinthetransmissionofinformationandtheroleofinformationmediationHoweverduetofactorssuchascognitivebiasesandconflictsofinterest，analystsoftengeneratebiasesintheirprofitfore

6、castingbehaviorwhichfurthcrexacerbatesinformationasymmetryandcausesmarketdisruptionThehazardsanalystspredictthatbiasbehaviorhindersthetransmissionofrealinformationandtherealizationofmarketefficiencyThemoreserioustheanaly

7、stpredictsbiasbehavior，themoredifficultitisforlistedcompaniestodisclosenegativenews，andthestockpricegraduallydeviatesfromtherealprice，whennegativeinformationgraduallyaccumulatesoverthelimitEventually，asuddenoutbreakwilll