摩根士丹利184頁報告：中國消費2030

1、M MChina Consumer Consumption 2030: At Your ServiceMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict

2、 of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and oth

3、er important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may

4、not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.We expect China's private consumption to more than double t

5、o about US$13trn by 2030, matching the size of the US market now, with changes in income, distribution, and technology. We lay out how this will reshape consumption into four distinct segments: emerging, expanding, e

6、volving, and ex-growth.January 26, 2021 10:43 PM GMTM MBy 2030, China will have a different consumer landscape than the one we see today. Fundamental trends that are already under way will, we believe, create an economy

7、in which services overtake goods in terms of value and share of GDP.We expect household per capita income to double by 2030, while purchasing power will be dominated by the 35-44 and 55+ age groups – baby boomers born

8、in the 1960s and their children – and will move from a 'young consumer' focus now to a 'family demands and retire-ment planning' focus' in 2030. Consumption that targets emotional wellbeing and self

9、-fulfilment will rise in prominence, and consumers will look to an evolved and often automated service sector to sup-port their daily lives. We think the average Chinese consumer will be a driver of change rather than me

10、rely a recipient of Western con-sumption trends. Part of that change will be informed by certain cul-tural values and consumption needs to support those values. These include strong family ties and the prioritization of

11、education. In this report, we look 10 years into the future to try to understand how different forces will shape the domestic consumption land-scape. The growth of service-based consumption will likely continue to well o

12、utpace that of goods, with its share of private consumption reaching 52% by 2030 (vs. 45% today). The Chinese government is prioritizing the domestic economy in a world of 'slowbalization' , and we expect policy,

13、 household income, technology, and demographic change to more than double the size of the private consumption market to US$12.7trn (48% of GDP) by 2030.Changes in the consumption landscape will require different response

14、s from different industries. For example, old-economy industries will look to digitalization to facilitate household consump-tion, while evolving lifestyles in smart supercities will help create new consumption demand. I

15、n the following pages, we highlight key drivers of change, classify industries into four categories to help investors understand their likely development paths, and create an investment framework to identify which indu

16、stries and stocks are most likely to benefit. We expect stock debates to move from brand and channel to technology and service.China Consumer Consumption 2030: At Your Service We expect China's private consumption

17、 to more than double to about US$13trn by 2030, matching the size of the US market now, with changes in income, distribution, and technology. We lay out how this will reshape consumption into four distinct segments: em