宏觀研究美國(guó)降息周期大類資產(chǎn)運(yùn)行規(guī)律

1、正文目錄正文目錄1.1972年以來七個(gè)降息周期年以來七個(gè)降息周期....................................................................................................................52.降息周期美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)降息周期美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn).................................................

2、.........................................................................63.美國(guó)降息周期大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)美國(guó)降息周期大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)..................................................................................................................73.1.美

3、債........................................................................................73.2.美股........................................................................................93.3.美元指數(shù)...........................

4、........................................................103.4.黃金.......................................................................................123.5.原油價(jià)格...........................................................

5、........................154.2019年下半年大類資產(chǎn)走勢(shì)展望年下半年大類資產(chǎn)走勢(shì)展望......................................................................................................155.附錄：美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期前后經(jīng)濟(jì)和大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)附錄：美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期前后經(jīng)濟(jì)和大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)................

6、............................................................175.1.美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期前后經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì).............................................................175.2.經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期前后美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)........................................................

7、...185.3.美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期前后大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn).............................................................195.3.1.美債............................................................................................205.3.2.美股.......................

8、.....................................................................205.3.3.美元指數(shù)........................................................................................215.3.4.原油價(jià)格.......................................

9、.................................................21圖表目錄圖表目錄圖1：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開啟降息一般是為了應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)或者即將到來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退.......................................5圖2：1970年以來降息周期美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)(陰影部分為降息周期)............................................................

10、............................6圖3：1970年以來降息周期美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)(陰影部分為降息周期)........................................................................................6圖4：1974.61974.12美債走勢(shì)(陰影部分為衰退期，下同)......................................

11、..............................................................8圖5：1980.31980.7美債走勢(shì)..........................................................................8圖6：1980.121983.2美債走勢(shì)...........................................

12、..............................8圖7：1984.8.91987.1.2美債走勢(shì).......................................................................8圖8：1989.5.171994.2.3美債走勢(shì)......................................................................

13、8圖9：2000.5.162004.6.29美債走勢(shì).....................................................................8圖10：2006.6.292015.12.16美債走勢(shì)...................................................................8圖11：2018.12.182019.7.5美債走勢(shì)...

14、.................................................................8圖12：1974.61974.12美股走勢(shì)........................................................................9圖13：1980.31980.7美股走勢(shì)........................................

15、.................................9圖14：1980.121983.2美股走勢(shì)........................................................................9圖15：1984.8.91987.1.2美股走勢(shì)....................................................................

16、..9圖16：1989.5.171994.2.3美股走勢(shì)....................................................................10圖61：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前后2年美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債走勢(shì)(BP)................................................................................................

17、............20圖62：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前后2年標(biāo)普500變化(%)...........................................................................................................................20圖63：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前后2年標(biāo)普500變化(%).....................................

18、......................................................................................20圖64：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前后2年美元指數(shù)變化(%)...............................................................................................................

19、............21圖65：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前后2年美元指數(shù)變化(%)...........................................................................................................................21圖66：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前后2年原油價(jià)格變化%.........................................

20、.....................................................................................21表1：觸發(fā)降息周期的重要事件.........................................................................5表2：1972年以來美國(guó)降息周期的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)........................

21、......................................6表3：1972年以來美國(guó)降息周期的主要大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)......................................................7表4：標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在降息周期回調(diào)最大幅度............................................................9表5：1972年以來6次美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期

22、的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn).......................................................17表6：1929年以來美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期的大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)......................................................19表7：標(biāo)普500指數(shù)回調(diào)幅度超過20%的時(shí)期........................................................