瑞信-美國大類資產(chǎn)第三季度展望-58頁

1、DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPTCONTAINSIMPTANTDISCLOSURESANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLEGALENTITYDISCLOSURETHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asare

2、sultinvestsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.7July2017AmericasUnitedStatesEquityResear

3、chAssetManagersUSTraditionalAssetManagers–2Q17PreviewSECTREVIEWResearchAnalystsCraigSiegenthalerCFA2123253104craig.siegenthaler@creditAriGhosh2123257113ari.ghosh@creditJdanFriedler2123253184jdan.friedler@creditExpectSoli

4、dResultsContinuedImprovementinto2H17–BLKTopLongIn2Q17resultsoverthenextmonthwegenerallyexpect(1)betterthanexpectedimprovedflows(especiallyconsideringnegativeseasonalityqq)(2)higherAuMbalancesrevenues(strongmarketback1ext

5、raday)(3)improvedoperatingmargins(aidedbyrevenuelift)(4)betterthanexpectedEPSresults(includingsomepositivecontributionfromnonoperatingincome).2Q17flowsfeeratesareespeciallypositivewhenyouconsiderwheremarketexpectationswe

6、re612monthsagogiventhefirstDOLRuleimplementationdeadlineofApril2017(delayedtoJune17).Howeveraswewroteaboutin“DarkestBefeDawn“onMay4welookfflowsfeestotrendbetterthanmarketexpectationsin2017expectthepaceofthethreesecularro

7、tations(activetopassivehightolowfeeMFtoETFSMA)toslowin2018intheUS(butaccelerateoutsideoftheUSgivenFCAReviewinUKMiFID2inEUfutureregulations).Note:ETFsarealsostealingsharefromsinglesecuritiesininvestptfoliosincludinginstit

8、utionalinvests(insurancecompanies)retailinvestswhichcanprovidenewsourcesofgrowththatareoutsideoftheactivemanagers.Wehaverevisedestimatestargetpricesacrossourcoverage.PleaserefertoFigure8.■Macro:ExcludingLATAMallmajglobal

9、equitymarketsgeneratedstrongreturnsagainin2Q17withEMEuropeleadingtheUS.Bondreturnswerebroadlypositiveacrosstheboardwithallmajcategiesgeneratingpositivereturns(includingUSGlobalHighYield).Globaleconomicactivitymodestlyund

10、erperfmedexpectationsintheUSwith“hard”datasofteningwithlowerprospectsffiscalstimulusderegulation.■Flows:Industryflowtrendsremainedconsistent–withinflowsintoETFspassiveactivefixedincomebutnegativeintoactiveequities.Howeve

11、ractiveequityflowsdidimproveqq(despitenegativeseasonality)aretrackingbetterthanourinitialfecasts(feeratestrendingbettertoo).Wecontinuetobelieve2017willcontainpeaknegativeactivityftraditionalmanagers(activetopassiverotati

12、onhightolowfeeshiftfrequencyoffeecuts)expecttheselevelstoslowin201819aspassiveshareofequityassetsreach50%intheUSnextyear.■LTIndustryView:Wehaveamixed12monthviewofthetraditionalmanagersdrivenby(1)severalsecularheadwindsto

13、flowsintraditionalproductclasses(activeequities)(2)elevatedriskoffreepressure(3)riskofnewregulations(especiallyinEurope)thatfocusonconsumerprotectiongenerallyencourageinveststoshiftfundsintolowcostindexproducts.Howeverth

14、eUSassetmanagerstocksarecheaprelativetotheirhistylongonlyinvestsaregenerallyunderweightwhichcouldleadtobetterthanexpectedstockperfmance.Wefecasta510%totalreturnftheaveragetraditionalstockoverthenext12months(includesdivid

15、ends).7July2017USTraditionalAssetManagers–2Q17Preview32Q17ThemesConclusionsFigure1:CumulativeUSRetailEquityFlows($B):Figure2:CumulativeUSRetailBondFlows($B)6005004003002001000100200300400ActiveEquityPassiveEquityMFPassiv

16、eEquityETF50250255075100125150ActiveBondPassiveBondMFPassiveBondETFSource:CreditSuisseAssetManagerResearchSimfundActiveEquityincludesactiveMFactiveETFSource:CreditSuisseAssetManagerResearchSimfundActiveBondincludesactive

17、MFactiveETFMacro■Equitymarketreturnswerestrongfthemostpartin2Q17(exLatinAmerica)withUSindicesupfthequarterwhileEMEuropeanequitiesoutpaceddomesticequityreturns(onapointtopointbasis).Fixedincomereturnswerepositiveacrossthe

18、boardwithallmajcategiesincludingceUSbondsEMhighyieldmunisgeneratingpositivereturns.IndustryflowswerepositiveintoETFspassiveactivefixedincomebutnegativeintoactiveequitiesmoneymarketfunds.Weexpectthenegativeflowsinactiveeq

19、uitiestocontinuebuttoslowin201819.Weestimate2Q17publicassetmanagerflowsat1.0%ganicgrowth(ann.)whichwhilenegativebelow1Q17(0.6%)isntthatbadgiventhedualheadwindsofDOLimplementationnegativeseasonality(taxseasonoffof401kinfl

20、owsin1Q).Whileganicgrowthtrendscontinuetolookweakfthegroupwebelievethatthestocksnowreflectaslightlymepositiveoutlookasthegrouphasrallied9%onaverageoverthepastthreemonthscomparedto3%ftheS&P5007%ftheUSfinancialsect.Weestim

21、atemuchoftheoutperfmanceYTDhasbeendrivenby(1)hedgefundshtcovering(2)longonlyallocationsincreasingfromunderweight.Stocks■BLK(Outperfm)–weexpectanEPSbeatareprojectingverystrongflowsin2Q17(ffullyear2017)drivenby$70BofiShare

22、sinflows(~$50BEquity$20BFixedIncome)withmethanhalfoftheinflowsiginatingfromoutsideofitsceseriesETFs(verylowfee).WecontinuetoseeourBLKretail“l(fā)grab“thesisplayingoutwithGlobaliSharescrossingtheannual$100BflowmarkalreadyinJu

23、ne(vs.Octoberin2016Novemberin2015).WealsoexpectBLKs2Q17feeratetostabilizegivenamepositiveback(FXdivergentbeta)alsonotethatwebelieveBLKsretail(~60bps)ETF(~30bps)segmentswilldrivefuturegrowthbothsegmentsaremeprofitablethan

24、BLKsslowergrowthinstitutionalsegmentoverallbusiness(~19bps).BLKremainsourtoptraditionallong.■LM(Outperfm)–webelieveLMwillreptaGAAPearningsmissflowswillturnslightlynegative.Howeverweestimatethereareabout$0.350.40ofonetime