2019年公共財(cái)政稅收研究明年減稅能否加碼，減稅空間還有多大

1、目錄1.經(jīng)濟(jì)下行，政策基調(diào)轉(zhuǎn)變..................................................51.1經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩.......................................................51.2更加積極的財(cái)政政策.................................................52.財(cái)政收入分析...................

2、.........................................62.1財(cái)政收入現(xiàn)狀.......................................................62.1.1公共財(cái)政收入以稅收收入為主.....................................62.1.2財(cái)政收入進(jìn)入較低增速運(yùn)行階段...................................62.

3、1.32018年財(cái)政收入前高后低.........................................72.2稅收收入部分組成...................................................82.2.1我國(guó)現(xiàn)行稅收結(jié)構(gòu)...............................................82.2.2增值稅增速低于稅收增速......................

4、...................8企業(yè)所得稅增速高于稅收增速...........................................82.2.3增值稅占財(cái)政收入比重下降........................................93.財(cái)政支出...............................................................103.1財(cái)政支出現(xiàn)狀.....

5、.................................................103.1.1財(cái)政支出與財(cái)政收入變化基本一致................................103.1.2現(xiàn)階段財(cái)政支出同樣進(jìn)入低增速運(yùn)行階段..........................103.1.318年支出增速或?qū)⒌陀谀壳八?.................................113.2財(cái)政支出部

6、分組成分析..............................................113.2.1各項(xiàng)目支出情況................................................123.2.2行政支出占比維持在78%..............................................................................124.財(cái)政赤字情況

7、...........................................................134.1國(guó)內(nèi)赤字率水平近年來(lái)維持在3%以內(nèi).................................134.2美國(guó)赤字率水平開啟新一輪上調(diào)......................................144.3國(guó)內(nèi)大幅增加赤字率的可能性不大.............................

8、.......155.2019年減稅空間及力度..................................................165.1減稅空間的三個(gè)來(lái)源................................................165.1.1赤字率上調(diào)帶來(lái)減稅空間........................................165.1.2減支擴(kuò)大減稅空間............

9、..................................165.1.3通過(guò)增加稅種增加稅收..........................................175.219年減稅加碼力度可能不及市場(chǎng)預(yù)期..................................195.2.1赤字率3%的上限標(biāo)準(zhǔn)很難突破...................................195.2.2增值稅減稅效果有

10、待驗(yàn)證........................................195.2.3政府減支壓力較大..............................................206.未來(lái)減稅及受益方向分析.................................................216.1個(gè)稅加碼可能性較小......................................

11、..........216.2增值稅VS企業(yè)所得稅...............................................216.3所得稅............................................................226.3.1所得稅率或有23個(gè)點(diǎn)的下調(diào)空間................................226.3.2所得稅降稅有利于提高優(yōu)質(zhì)企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力..

12、..........................226.4增值稅............................................................226.4.1降低增值稅更有利于位于盈虧平衡線附近的企業(yè)....................22圖表目錄圖1：M2與GDP增速........................................................5圖2：社

13、會(huì)各部門杠桿率變化情況..............................................5圖3：財(cái)政收入分析..........................................................6圖4：年度財(cái)政收入與名義GDP增速對(duì)比.......................................7圖5：財(cái)政收入月度增速........................

14、..............................7圖6：財(cái)政收入結(jié)構(gòu)分析......................................................8圖7：稅收收入增速..........................................................9圖8：各項(xiàng)稅收占比情況分析..........................................

15、........9圖9：財(cái)政支出及增速.......................................................10圖10：年度財(cái)政支出與GDP增速對(duì)比.........................................11圖11：財(cái)政收支月度增速....................................................11圖12：財(cái)政支出結(jié)構(gòu)分析.....

16、...............................................12圖13：各項(xiàng)支出占比情況分析................................................12圖14：行政支出及其增速....................................................12圖15：行政支出占比...............................

17、.........................12圖16：中國(guó)政府預(yù)期赤字率..................................................13圖17：中美財(cái)政預(yù)期赤字率對(duì)比..............................................14圖18：美國(guó)房產(chǎn)稅收入狀況..................................................17

18、圖19：稅收增速變化情況....................................................20圖20：財(cái)政收支及GDP增速...................................................20圖21：增值稅及企業(yè)所得稅收入..............................................21圖22：增值稅及企業(yè)所得稅占比.........

19、.....................................21表1：中國(guó)政府各年度財(cái)政預(yù)算...............................................13表2：美國(guó)各年度財(cái)政收支及預(yù)算安排.........................................14表3：全國(guó)公共財(cái)政支出預(yù)算.............................................

20、....17表4：美國(guó)各州房產(chǎn)稅率.....................................................18表5：上市行業(yè)增值稅情況...................................................23表6：截至2017年12月31日的銀行業(yè)各類金融機(jī)構(gòu)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況...............24表7：增值稅測(cè)算..........................