農(nóng)業(yè)行業(yè)2019年投資策略黎明已至，豬周期反轉(zhuǎn)帶動產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈景氣度向上

1、目錄1.生豬養(yǎng)殖：非洲豬瘟疫情持續(xù)擴散，豬價周期拐點或加速到來..................61.1非洲豬瘟疫情防控形勢嚴峻，行業(yè)落后產(chǎn)能加快退出.....................61.2行業(yè)變革之際，關(guān)注豬周期反轉(zhuǎn)的投資機會.............................91.2.1疫情的點狀爆發(fā)或?qū)⒊蔀樾袠I(yè)常態(tài)，區(qū)域價格分化持續(xù)...............91.2.2大型養(yǎng)殖企業(yè)將成為主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)走向的中堅力量

2、.......................91.2.3上市公司產(chǎn)能投建放緩，建議關(guān)注溫氏股份、新希望................102.飼料：不同品類飼料分化演繹.............................................122.1畜禽飼料新標準發(fā)布，豆粕年需求量有望大幅降低.....................122.2不同品類飼料分化演繹...........................

3、..................142.2.1豬料：非洲豬瘟疫情大范圍擴散或?qū)е落N量承壓..................142.2.2禽料：養(yǎng)殖盈利較好疊加存欄量回升，銷量有望保持高增.........152.2.3水產(chǎn)料：普通顆粒料和膨化料銷量增速繼續(xù)分化..................152.3重點關(guān)注標的.....................................................163.動

4、物疫苗：豬價景氣有望帶動高端苗需求...................................173.1明年的生豬養(yǎng)殖市場預(yù)計對政采苗和市場苗形成不同影響...............173.2行業(yè)政策變化影響明年口蹄疫招采市場分配...........................173.3建議關(guān)注：生物股份、中牧股份.....................................194.禽養(yǎng)殖：景氣度緩慢下行.

5、................................................194.1全年行情回顧：禽鏈各環(huán)節(jié)景氣度明顯回升...........................194.22019年展望：禽鏈景氣度或?qū)⒕徛滦?..............................194.2.1供給端：強制換羽逐漸增多或顯著增加毛雞出欄量...............194.2.2需求端：流感影響減弱疊加豬肉替

6、代效應(yīng)，禽肉需求料將保持平穩(wěn).224.3重點關(guān)注標的.....................................................225.種子：品種井噴，行業(yè)競爭更趨激烈.......................................225.1玉米種有望逐漸回暖，稻種市場仍處調(diào)整期...........................225.2新銷售季開啟，關(guān)注龍頭種企復(fù)蘇勢頭.........

7、......................256.市場表現(xiàn)：前11個月跑贏大盤6.22個百分點...............................257.重點公司盈利預(yù)測和估值.................................................278.風險提示...............................................................28圖31全

8、國在產(chǎn)祖代白羽肉雞周存欄數(shù)據(jù)（萬套）.............................20圖32全國在產(chǎn)父母代白羽肉雞周存欄數(shù)據(jù)（萬套）...........................21圖33全國后備父母代白羽肉雞周存欄數(shù)據(jù)（萬套）...........................21圖34雞苗和毛雞價格.....................................................21圖3

9、5全國在產(chǎn)父母代理論&實際存欄量......................................21圖3620142018年一季度中國H7N9流感感染病例數(shù).........................22圖372015Q12018Q3肯德基同店銷售增速.................................22圖38近年國審品種數(shù)量（個）....................................

10、.........23圖39玉米收購價（元噸）................................................24圖40稻谷庫存量（萬噸）.................................................24圖41稻谷收購價（元噸）................................................24圖42部分種企國審水稻品種數(shù)量及占比....