美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策轉(zhuǎn)向，國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)承壓

1、1海外經(jīng)濟(jì)：經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張減速，貨幣政策緊縮放緩海外經(jīng)濟(jì)：經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張減速，貨幣政策緊縮放緩海外經(jīng)濟(jì)體情況來(lái)看，主要發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增速繼續(xù)放慢，尤其是美國(guó)從此前的高速增長(zhǎng)開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)一節(jié)見(jiàn)頂?shù)恼髡?，雖然就業(yè)依然保持較好狀態(tài)，但是PMI指數(shù)等已經(jīng)開(kāi)始走弱，通脹水平也繼續(xù)回落。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策則出現(xiàn)明顯轉(zhuǎn)向，12月會(huì)議上美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員對(duì)明年加息的預(yù)期降至兩次，市場(chǎng)則進(jìn)一步將預(yù)期調(diào)整至不加息。歐洲方面，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍表現(xiàn)不慍不火，總體上不如美國(guó)的情況。歐洲央行從今年

2、開(kāi)始將不再進(jìn)行QE，并且將未來(lái)加息的時(shí)間點(diǎn)向后調(diào)整，可能將在今年年底。1.1美國(guó)：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)放慢緊縮步伐，因經(jīng)濟(jì)有減速風(fēng)險(xiǎn)美國(guó)：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)放慢緊縮步伐，因經(jīng)濟(jì)有減速風(fēng)險(xiǎn)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張的速度繼續(xù)放慢。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)12月份官方制造業(yè)PMI指數(shù)報(bào)54.1，遠(yuǎn)低于預(yù)期的57.5，也遠(yuǎn)低于前值的59.3。該數(shù)據(jù)創(chuàng)十年來(lái)最大降幅，具體來(lái)看，其中生產(chǎn)和新訂單出現(xiàn)明顯下降，新訂單下降達(dá)11個(gè)點(diǎn)，產(chǎn)成品庫(kù)存小幅上升，同時(shí)原材料庫(kù)存和原材料價(jià)格均有明顯下降，周

3、期上看依然處于去庫(kù)存階段。另外PMI中的就業(yè)分項(xiàng)出現(xiàn)回落，在手訂單和進(jìn)口量也都有明顯下降?？傮w上看，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)去庫(kù)存階段，并且隨著2018年減稅作用下降，以及貿(mào)易沖突的負(fù)面影響加劇，未來(lái)仍有進(jìn)一步下行的可能。圖1美國(guó)PMI走勢(shì)圖2美國(guó)PMI分項(xiàng)擴(kuò)張情況數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind、方正中期研究院數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind、方正中期研究院圖3美國(guó)官方PMI分項(xiàng)變動(dòng)制造業(yè)PMI生產(chǎn)新訂單新出口訂單產(chǎn)成品庫(kù)存原材料價(jià)格原材料庫(kù)存就業(yè)供應(yīng)商交付訂單庫(kù)存進(jìn)口20

4、18年12月54.154.351.152.841.754.951.256.257.550.052.7最近5年45%27%8%45%13%38%58%72%75%42%37%最近5年均值54.758.859.754.347.151.946.354.154.549.852.5最近5年波動(dòng)率4.25.77.12.83.415.61.93.93.55.34.5上月數(shù)值59.360.662.152.241.560.752.958.462.556.

5、453.6本月與上月差值5.26.311.00.60.25.81.72.25.06.40.9最近5年差值平均0.50.40.70.30.91.41.90.60.11.40.5最近5年差值歷史波動(dòng)率2.03.85.73.93.26.33.01.81.71.32.0數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind、方正中期研究院數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind、方正中期研究院圖9美國(guó)消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)分項(xiàng)季調(diào)環(huán)比3個(gè)月移動(dòng)平均環(huán)比同比季調(diào)環(huán)比拉動(dòng)同比拉動(dòng)項(xiàng)目權(quán)重2018112018102017

6、11201811201810201711201811201810201711201811201810201711201811201810201711機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)20%0.21%1.53%1.30%0.57%0.26%1.43%1.62%0.08%5.48%0.04%0.31%0.26%0.33%0.02%1.11%汽油9%2.27%3.23%3.66%0.15%1.16%3.22%8.24%14.81%12.70%0.19%0.28%0.31

7、%0.71%1.27%1.09%食品飲料12%0.39%0.31%0.35%0.29%0.10%0.59%2.94%2.90%3.45%0.05%0.04%0.04%0.36%0.35%0.42%家具2%1.16%0.45%0.46%0.41%0.33%0.86%1.72%1.02%7.99%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.03%0.02%0.16%家電2%1.42%1.68%1.41%0.62%0.15%0.91%2.96%2.95

8、%4.62%0.02%0.03%0.02%0.05%0.05%0.08%服裝5%0.18%1.34%1.05%0.63%0.33%0.49%4.16%5.44%3.75%0.01%0.06%0.05%0.19%0.25%0.17%建材6%0.28%1.49%0.52%0.47%0.84%0.93%3.28%4.11%9.14%0.02%0.10%0.03%0.21%0.27%0.59%文娛1%0.43%1.07%0.35%0.10%0.

9、75%0.96%8.29%8.36%2.29%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.11%0.11%0.03%日用品12%0.43%0.82%0.18%0.26%0.13%0.31%3.58%3.32%3.89%0.05%0.10%0.02%0.42%0.39%0.46%雜貨店2%0.40%2.15%2.71%0.58%1.10%1.04%1.45%3.78%6.56%0.01%0.05%0.06%0.03%0.08%0.14%保健護(hù)理6%

10、0.88%0.14%0.40%0.24%0.20%0.42%3.10%1.79%5.94%0.05%0.01%0.02%0.18%0.10%0.34%無(wú)店鋪零售12%2.30%0.75%3.99%1.40%0.87%1.31%10.54%12.36%13.00%0.27%0.09%0.47%1.23%1.44%1.52%餐飲服務(wù)12%0.49%0.61%0.42%0.49%0.36%0.52%6.03%7.00%1.97%0.06%0.

11、07%0.05%0.71%0.83%0.23%消費(fèi)合計(jì)100%0.23%1.11%0.71%0.37%0.27%1.04%4.24%4.74%6.14%0.23%1.11%0.71%4.24%4.74%6.14%除汽油91%0.47%0.91%0.46%0.42%0.19%0.86%3.88%3.87%5.58%0.43%0.83%0.42%3.55%3.54%5.10%除汽油、汽車(chē)、建材65%0.63%0.65%1.03%0.37%0

12、.10%0.66%4.67%5.09%5.27%0.41%0.42%0.66%3.02%3.29%3.41%除汽油、汽車(chē)、建材、食品53%0.68%0.73%1.19%0.39%0.10%0.68%5.08%5.61%5.71%0.36%0.39%0.62%2.67%2.95%3.00%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind、方正中期研究院就業(yè)方面看，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)口徑失業(yè)了在12月出現(xiàn)小幅上升，但是U6廣義失業(yè)率繼續(xù)保持不變，且二者大致仍位于多年的低位附近。新增非

13、農(nóng)就業(yè)12月增長(zhǎng)明顯，可能是對(duì)11月數(shù)據(jù)大幅回落的修復(fù)，其中商品和服務(wù)分項(xiàng)均有明顯增長(zhǎng)，前者主要是建筑業(yè)新增就業(yè)的正向推動(dòng)，后者則是受到教育和保健服務(wù)以及休閑和酒店業(yè)的影響。另外在薪資增速方面，環(huán)比和同比增速均出現(xiàn)明顯上升尤其是前者?？傮w上看，目前美國(guó)就業(yè)層面依然保持良好，申領(lǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金人數(shù)等數(shù)據(jù)顯示失業(yè)率仍有小幅下降空間，但是加速增長(zhǎng)的薪資表明經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張正在進(jìn)入后半程，并且將令核心CPI維持在一定高度。圖10美國(guó)失業(yè)率和非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)變動(dòng)