制成品出口和進口需求的評估外商直接投資的作用【外文翻譯】

1、本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目：外文題目：EstimatingtheExptImptDemfManufacturedGoods:TheRoleofFDI出處：處：ReviewofWldEconomics140(3)2004pages347375作者：者：MariamCamareroCecilioTamarit原文：文：2.2.2TestingStrategiesinPreviousEmpiricalStudiesThe

2、theeticalreviewundertakeninsubsection2.2.1cannotgiveclearcutconclusionsaboutthecomplementarysubstitutenatureoftradeFDI.Thusthequestionremainsopenfempiricalanalysis.Generallywecanidentifytwoempiricalapproachesintheliterat

3、ure.Firsttheempiricalliteraturethatanalyzesthebilateralexptimptbehaviofaffiliatesofmultinationalfirmstowardshostcountrymarketsbasedonthetheeticalbackgroundprovidedbythetheyofindustrialganization.Thispartoftheliteratureus

4、ingmainlydataatindustryindividualfirmlevelhasbuiltonthesocalledgravitymodelsestimatingtheeffectsofeconomicintegrationinlargecrosssectionsofcountries.Thesegravityequationsestimatetheclassoftheeticalmodelsderivedmostlyfrom

5、theKKmodels6tosomeextentfromaproximityconcentrationtradeoffwherefirmsdecidetoserveafeignmarketeitherasanexpter(viatrade)asamultinationalenterprise(viafeignaffiliatessales).Becauseofdataavailabilityproblemsthelattercanbep

6、roxiedbystocksofFDIratherthanthefeignaffiliatessalesitself.Howeverthisapproachhasbeencriticizedbothfromaneconometricatheeticalpointofview.Ontheonehtheuseofstaticpanelshasseriouseconometricflawsontheotherhitconsidersthein

7、tegrationeffectsinastaticwayneglectingthefactthatthephenomenonisintrinsicallydynamic.Indertoovercomethesepitfallssomeauthshaveproposedalternativelyapplyingeithercomputablegeneralequilibriumanalysis(Helpmanetal.2003)dynam

8、icpanelsmultinationalactivities.Wewillconcentrateonequationsfexptimptdemofmanufacturedgoodstryingtousenotonlythetraditionalfacts(pricecostexternalinternaldem)butalsofeigninvestmentstocks.Additionallyabasicassumptionofthe

9、modelisthatexptersarealwaysontheirdemschedulessothatdemalwaysequalstheactualleveloftradeflows.Howeverithasbeenwidelyacknowledgedthatexptsdonotimmediatelyadjusttotheirlongrunequilibriumlevelwhenthereisachangeinanyofitsdet

10、erminants.8Thiskindofempiricalrathermethodologicalflawcanbeavoidedusingcointegrationtechniquesthataccountfthenonstationarynatureofthedataexplicitlyconsiderthedynamicstructureimplicitinthemodel.UsingthedynamicOLS(DOLS)pro

11、cedurewecanobtainlongrunrelationswithoutneglectingtheshtrunadjustmentprocesscrectingfpossibleendogeneityproblems.Inadditiontimeseriespropertiesestimationtechniquescanbecombinedwiththeinfmationcontainedinapanelofdatabyusi

12、ngtherecenttestsfcointegrationinpanels.Hencetheuseofpanelcointegrationtestsallowsustogainpowerbyexploitingcrosssectionalinfmationtakingintoaccountthedegreeofheterogeneityinthecrosssectiondynamics.Thisobjectiveisachievedb

13、yextendingtheclassicalanalysisofexptimptfunctionstoincludeaggregateoutwardinwardFDIusingapanelof1312OECDcountriesrespectivelyftheperiod19811998.Ourpaperdepartsfromotherpreviousstudiesinseveralissues.Firstwemakeuseofcapit

14、alstockratherthanflowdataonFDI.Dataondirectinvestmentflowsfromnationalbalancesofpaymentsareusuallyavailableearlierthanthecrespondingstockdatahencetheyarefrequentlyusedwhentheauthsareinterestedincountrycomparisons.However

15、suchcomparisonsmayleadtomisinterpretationsinaneconometricanalysisduetolackofharmonization(DeutscheBundesbank1997)highvolatilityofthedatatheabsenceofasolidtheeticalunderpinning.Themostappropriatevariablefromatheeticalpoin