（節(jié)選）經(jīng)貿(mào)專業(yè)外文翻譯---人民幣匯率傳遞的不對稱性對外商直接投資進出口業(yè)務(wù)的影響

1、<p>　　人民幣匯率傳遞的不對稱性對外商直接</p><p>　　投資進出口業(yè)務(wù)的影響</p><p><b>　　一、引言</b></p><p>　　自中國在2005年7月實施人民幣匯率形成機制改革以來，人民幣兌美元上升約5％，人民幣匯率波幅逐步擴大。與此同時,中國仍然呈現(xiàn)“雙順差”局面。據(jù)此,一些經(jīng)濟學家指出:實際有效匯率才是

2、影響一國貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)鍵因素。因此上述局面形成的主要原因是人民幣實際有效匯率在匯改后并未顯著升值,貨幣當局應(yīng)進一步關(guān)注人民幣實際有效匯率的變動。他們認為貨幣當局應(yīng)擴大人民幣匯率的波幅,并預(yù)計其擴大將導(dǎo)致匯率在雙邊波動的情況下加速升值。也有一些學者則強調(diào)匯率對調(diào)節(jié)貿(mào)易收支的作用有限,認為應(yīng)保持匯率的相對穩(wěn)定,避免匯率大幅波動對中國進出口造成的沖擊。對于如何選擇最合適的匯率制度以促進發(fā)展，許多經(jīng)濟學家運用不同貿(mào)易的理論模型和經(jīng)驗來分析匯率波動

3、的影響。庫什曼（1983）認為，風險厭惡的廠商會選擇降低他們的貿(mào)易量。Doroodian（1999）和克魯格曼（1989）強調(diào)匯率的波動性導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易中的風險增加，特別是當貿(mào)易商無法通過金融工具來避險或者避險成本過高的時候。另一派觀點像Sercu and Vanhulle（1992），Dellas and Zilberfarb（1993）則認為匯率的波動性可能對貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生正面的影響。</p><p>　　有關(guān)人民幣匯率

4、對貿(mào)易的影響也是近年來的研究熱點,但大多集中在考察匯率水平值對進出口總量和貿(mào)易收支的影響方面,考察其波動性對貿(mào)易影響的研究相對較少。少數(shù)有關(guān)人民幣匯率波動性和進出口貿(mào)易之間的關(guān)系的文獻都得出了人民幣匯率波動性將對出口產(chǎn)生負面沖擊的結(jié)果(Chou, 2000;曹陽與李劍武, 2006)。李廣眾和Voon(2004)關(guān)注了匯率波動性對制造業(yè)不同部門的影響,他們的研究表明匯率波動性對制造業(yè)中各細分行業(yè)出口的影響是不同的,并不都表現(xiàn)為負面沖擊。

5、</p><p>　　基于對外商投資企業(yè)（外資企業(yè)）的行為，本文還試圖從不同角度說明了人民幣匯率波動和貿(mào)易流動的關(guān)系。有以下幾個方面：首先，為吸引外商投資企業(yè)定向投資（FDI）和鼓勵出口導(dǎo)向，近20年我國制定了一系列的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策，使得外商投資企業(yè)在中國貿(mào)易發(fā)揮極其重要的作用，促進貿(mào)易的大量順差。因此，研究匯率變動如何影響了他們的貿(mào)易是有必要的。其次，相對于中國的既定國有或民營企業(yè)，外商投資企業(yè)往往在國際金融市場

6、上擁有更多處理風險的經(jīng)驗和市場地位。因此，很自然地想知道外商投資企業(yè)作為一個特殊群體是否有避免匯率風險的能力。第三，許多中國外商投資企業(yè)以加工貿(mào)易的方式，這些特征應(yīng)該能處理是否會扭轉(zhuǎn)外商投資企業(yè)貿(mào)易和匯率波動之間的關(guān)系的問題。</p><p>　　二、匯率變動對外商投資企業(yè)的貿(mào)易影響的實證分析</p><p>　?。?）進出口方程數(shù)據(jù)的處理及平穩(wěn)性檢驗</p><p&g

7、t;　　數(shù)據(jù)樣本期間為1997年1季度到2006年3季度, X表示中國的實際出口額,用名義出口額除以出口價格指數(shù)(2000=100)計算得出; M表示中國的實際進口額,用名義進口額除以進口價格指數(shù)(2000=100)計算得出; Y表示中國的實際收入,用實際GDP來進行衡量;Yf表示中國主要貿(mào)易伙伴國的實際收入,是美國、日本、德國、荷蘭、英國、韓國6國的以美元計的實際GDP加總后再乘以人民幣對美元匯率得到的</p><

8、p>　　（2）分析人民幣匯率變動和外商投資企業(yè)出口之間的關(guān)系</p><p>　　由表 1檢驗結(jié)果可以看出，各變量的原值是I（1）過程，因此各變量單整階數(shù)一致,可以使用Engle-Granger的兩步法來判斷變量間的長短期關(guān)系。檢驗結(jié)果如下：經(jīng)ADF檢驗表明各變量之間有一個長期平穩(wěn)的協(xié)整關(guān)系。括號中的值為t統(tǒng)計量</p><p>　　說明：表中的ADF檢驗的最大滯后階數(shù)為12, (n

9、, nt, c)表示(滯后階數(shù),無趨勢項,有截距)的檢驗形式, (n, nt, nc)表示(滯后階數(shù),無趨勢項,無截距)的檢驗形式,其中的滯后階數(shù)是根據(jù)SBC準則所確定的。*號表示5%的置信度下拒絕原假設(shè)。</p><p>　　方程（9）表明外商投資企業(yè)出口主要受實際收入水平拉動的影響。目前，中國開放的程度會影響外商投資企業(yè)出口積極。另一方面，人民幣的升值對外商投資企業(yè)出口產(chǎn)生負面影響。結(jié)果證明，外國直接投資和外

10、商投資企業(yè)有緊密積極的關(guān)系，這意味著，流入中國的外國直接投資中很大一部分是面向出口。羅德里克（2006）認為外商投資企業(yè)利用低成本的勞動力，土地和其他福利來實現(xiàn)我國政府提供的加工和出口基地中國的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。但是，外商投資企業(yè)輸送貨物的目的地主要是美國或歐洲，這些國家收入的增加對促進中國的外商投資企業(yè)出口作用日益顯著。這解釋了為什么中國隨著美國和歐洲的經(jīng)濟在過去數(shù)年出口增長速度驚人。人民幣升值將使中國出口產(chǎn)品價格更昂貴，這類產(chǎn)品的出口可能受到

11、負面影響。特別是，人民幣實際有效匯率變動不對稱性對外商投資企業(yè)出口有負面影響，說明即使可能有外商投資企業(yè)更多的的優(yōu)勢和經(jīng)驗來處理匯率風險，但是面對人民幣的匯率風險，他們還將改變他們的貿(mào)易金額。另一方面，它會通過對外國直接投資的人民幣風險渠道對出口造成負面影響。在長期關(guān)系建立之后，基于協(xié)整理論和誤差修正模型（ECM），進一步了解了短期關(guān)系。</p><p>　　令ecm1,t = Û1,t ,然后建立外

12、商投資企業(yè)出口方程：</p><p>　　令n = 4，用OLS法估計方法，然后按照從一般到具體的方法得到最終結(jié)果（見表2）。表2顯示了△ln X 是由它滯后變化帶來積極影響。改革開放以來，外國直接投資和實際有效匯率變化對于△lnX積極方面，或者△lnX 對△lnY的滯后影響是模糊的。人民幣匯率變動的滯后系數(shù)的變化表明，負面效應(yīng)并不突出。</p><p>　　（3）分析人民幣匯率變動與外商

13、投資企業(yè)進口之間的關(guān)系</p><p>　　同樣，我用恩格爾，格蘭杰方法來分析匯率的波動和外商投資企業(yè)進口的長期關(guān)系協(xié)整性。忽略對開放式變量和外國直接投資的未統(tǒng)計量的分析。變量有M, Y, V ， 估計結(jié)果如下。括號中的值是t 統(tǒng)計量，其余的方程用ADF檢驗來證明是不是平穩(wěn)序列，這意味著變量之間有一個長期的協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗。</p><p>　　方程（11）表明，中國外商投資企業(yè)的進口是由中國

14、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的拉動的。中國的快速發(fā)展意味著生產(chǎn)力水平的提高和擁有吸引更多市場的進口機會。人民幣升值會對中國的外商投資企業(yè)進口產(chǎn)生消極影響，它反映了人民幣升值將影響許多出口導(dǎo)向型外商投資企業(yè)其最終利潤產(chǎn)生負面影響。人民幣匯率波動不對稱性對外商投資企業(yè)的進口比出口影響的負面性更嚴重。也就意味著，外商投資企業(yè)加工貿(mào)易模式與我國內(nèi)部和外部經(jīng)濟失衡的事實仍然普遍存在。由于我國需求不足，因此，輸出依賴于世界市場。所以，他們對于一定程度的利潤轉(zhuǎn)化無動

15、于衷。然后，在變量之間的基礎(chǔ)上分析協(xié)整理論的短期關(guān)系。</p><p>　　令ecm2,t =û 2,t, 然后將外商投資企業(yè)誤差修正模型導(dǎo)入。</p><p>　　令n=4，并使用OLS法估計函數(shù)，然后從一般遵循的方法得到最終結(jié)果（見表3）。</p><p>　　表3指出△ln M是由它自身滯后性而產(chǎn)生負面影響的。我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的變化將積極影響△ln

16、M，而實際有效匯率的滯后影響是不確定的。人民幣匯率波動其滯后性表明它會給外商投資企業(yè)進口在短期內(nèi)帶來積極變化。這與對外商投資企業(yè)出口的負面影響不同。</p><p><b>　　三、結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　本文估計了人民幣匯率的不對稱性對外商投資企業(yè)出口和進口匯率波動的影響。衡量人民幣實際有效匯率指數(shù)波動性的標準是運用TARCH模型得出條件方差。然后，本文采

17、用恩-格爾，格蘭杰方法來探討匯率波動和外商投資企業(yè)之間進出口的長期和短期關(guān)系。</p><p>　　從長期來看，人民幣匯率的匯率水平對外商投資企業(yè)出口和進口都會產(chǎn)生負面影響。人民幣升值對外商投資企業(yè)出口的影響比進口更為嚴重。其原因可能與盛行的中國外商投資企業(yè)加工貿(mào)易形勢有關(guān)。外商投資企業(yè)加工貿(mào)易的依賴于進口材料和重要零部件加工模式，然后處理它們在海外銷售的最終市場。</p><p>　　從

18、短期來看，匯率波動對外商投資企業(yè)出口產(chǎn)生負面影響，除了對進口產(chǎn)生積極影響。我國的匯率水平對外商投資企業(yè)出口在短期內(nèi)存在著積極影響，并且已經(jīng)對外商投資企業(yè)進口產(chǎn)生作用。</p><p>　　此外，外國直接投資和外商投資企業(yè)出口促進了長期和短期開放發(fā)展的作用。本文沒有對協(xié)整研究變量之間的關(guān)系進行分析。</p><p>　　總之，我國政府可能會逐漸減緩對擴大人民幣匯率每日波動幅度，避免誘使陷入高

19、風險的經(jīng)濟體系。并且，我國應(yīng)采取措施改變貿(mào)易格局，采用更合理的方法來減少貿(mào)易盈余。</p><p>　　The Analysis of RMB Real Exchange Rate Asymmetric Volatility Impact on Foreign-Invested Enterprises</p><p>　　Export and Import in China</p&g

20、t;<p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　Since Chinese government launched the RMB exchange rate forming mechanism reform in July, 2005,the RMB against dollar appreciates about 5% until now, and the flexibilit

21、y of RMB is gradually enlarged. At the same time, China witnesses the surplus of current account and capital account, the so-called "double surplus". Under this circumstance, some economists advise the governme

22、nt to enlarge the daily range of RMB exchange rate fluctuation and quicken the pace of RMB appreciation. On the other hand</p><p>　　As the key issue on choosing the best suitable exchange rate system to boos

23、t the development, many economists study how the exchange rate volatility impact trade theoretically and empirically, with different theoretical models and empirical conclusions. Cushman(1983) argues that risk-verse trad

24、er would low their trading volumes facing with the exchange rate risk. Doroodian (1999) and Krugman (1989) emphasized exchange rate risk is detrimental to trade especially when the traders can not be acces</p><

25、;p>　　For the past several years the RMB is a hot issue because of the trade surplus and vast reserves, many scholars illustrate the effects of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on trade volumes, employment and grow

26、th in China, but a few relating to the RMB exchange rate volatility. Chou (2000) give the conclusion RMB exchange rate volatility has negative impact on trade. Li and Voon (2004) analyze the exchange rate misalignment an

27、d volatility impact on different sector export of manufacturing indu</p><p>　　By focusing on the behavior of Foreign-Invested Enterprises (FIEs), this paper also tries to illustrate the relationship of RMB e

28、xchange rate volatility and trade flows from a different angle. The reasons for focusing on FIEs are as follows. Firstly, because of the two decades macroeconomic policies of attracting Foreign Directed Investment (FDI)

29、and encouraging export-oriented FIEs, the FIEs play a very important role in Chinese trade and contribute lots of trade surplus. So it will be necessar</p><p>　　2. The empirical analysis of exchange rate vol

30、atility impact </p><p>　　on FIEs trade</p><p>　　Data description and stability test</p><p>　　The dataset of this paper is from the period Q /1997 to Q3/2006. X is the real quarterly

31、 export amount of Chinese FIEs, deflated by the price index for Chinese export(2000=100), multiplied by RMB nominal exchange rate against dollar; M is the real quarterly import amount of Chinese FIEs, deflated by the pri

32、ce index for Chinese import (2000=100), multiplied by RMB nominal exchange rate against dollar; Y is Chinese real national income, measured as Chinese nominal GDP deflated by GDP deflator (200</p><p>　?。?）Te

33、sting the relationship between exchange rate volatility and FIEs export</p><p>　　As the Tab. 1 indicates, all the variables are I(1) process, so I can use the Engle-Granger methods to analyze the long-run re

34、lationship between the variables based on the function (3). The estimated result is as follows. The residual of equation is proved to be stationary series tested by the ADF test, which means the variables has a long-run

35、co-integration relationship. T-statistics are in parentheses.</p><p>　　The biggest lag length is 12 in the ADF test. (n, nt, c) means (lag length, no trend, with intercept), (n,nt,nc) means (lag length, no t

36、rend, no intercept). The lag length is decided by the SBC criteria.</p><p>　　Equation (9) indicates that Chinese FIEs export is pulled by the income of trading partners' income and inflow FDI. The openne

37、ss degree of China can impact FIEs export positively. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB impacts FIEs export negatively.</p><p>　　The result prove that FDI and FIEs has tight and positive relationshi

38、p, which means that large share of inflow FDI in China is export-oriented. Rodrik (2006) argues the FIEs utilize the low cost workforce, land and other benefits Chinese government offers and treat China as the processing

39、 and export base of their industrial chain. But the destination of FIEs goods is mainly US or Europe, whose national income increase can boost China's FIEs export dramatically. That explains why China witness am</

40、p><p>　　Especially, the asymmetric volatility of RMB real effective exchange rate impacts FIEs export negatively, which proves that even FIEs might have more advantages and experience to deal with the exchange

41、rate risk, the risk of RMB will make their change their trade amount. Another cause of negative impact by the RMB risk on export flow is through the channel of RMB risk on FDI.</p><p>　　After the long-run re

42、lationship is established, I further find out the short-run relationship based on the co-integration theory and Error-Correction Model (ECM).</p><p>　　Let ecm1,t = Û1,t, then set up the ECM of FIEs exp

43、ort:</p><p>　　Let n=4 and use the OLS method to estimate the function, then follow from general to specific methods to get the final results (see Tab. 2).</p><p>　　Table 2 shows that △ln X is po

44、sitively affected by its lagged change. The change of Open, FDI and reer will affect △ln X positively, the impact of lagged △ln Y on △ln X is ambiguous. The lagged change of RMB exchange rate volatility shows the negati

45、ve coefficient, even not prominent in statistics.</p><p>　?。?）Testing the relationship volatility and FIEs import between exchange rate </p><p>　　Similarly, I use the Engle-Granger method to fin

46、d out the long-run co-integration relationship between exchange rate volatility and FIEs import.</p><p>　　Because of the variable of Open and FDI are not prominent in statistics, so I eliminate these two var

47、iables in the analysis. The co-integration vector includes M ,Y ,reer V . The estimated result is as follows. T-statistics are in parentheses. The residual of equation is proved to be stationary series tested by the ADF

48、test, which means the variables has a long-run co-integration relationship.</p><p>　　Equation (11) indicates that Chinese FIEs import is pulled by Chinese GDP. The fast development of China means the improve

49、d production level and more market opportunities in China, which inducing more import. The appreciation of RMB would have negative effect on Chinese FIEs import, which reflects the RMB appreciation will affect their fina

50、l profits of many export-oriented FIEs.</p><p>　　The asymmetric volatility of RMB exchange rate impacts FIEs import negatively and more severely than FIEs export. It could be still explained by the facts of

51、prevalent processing trade pattern of FIEs and the imbalance of Chinese inner and external economy. The demand of China is insufficient, so the output rely on the world market. So they are irresponsive to the change of p

52、rofit to some degree.</p><p>　　Then I investigate the short-run relationship based on the co-integration theory between the variables.</p><p>　　Let ecm2,t =û 2,t, then set up the Error-Cor

53、rection model of FIEs import:</p><p>　　Let n=4 and use the OLS method to estimate the function, then follow from general to specific methods toget the final results (see Tab. 3).</p><p>　　Tab. 3

54、 shows that △l n M is negatively affected by its lagged change. The change of Chinese GDP will affect A in M positively, the impact of lagged △l n reer on △l n M is ambiguous. The lagged change of RMB exchange rate vol

55、atility has the positive coefficient, indicating it will impact FIEs import positively in short run., which is different with the negative effect on FIEs export.</p><p>　　三. Conclusion</p><p>　　

56、This paper estimates the impact of asymmetric RMB exchange rate volatility on the FIEs export and import. The volatility is measured by the conditional variance of RMB real effective exchange rate index from a TARCH mode

57、l. Then, this paper uses the Engle-Granger methods to investigate the long-run and short-run relationship between exchange rate volatility and FIEs export and import.</p><p>　　The empirical analysis finds ou

58、t that the volatility of RMB exchange rate will impact FIEs export and import negatively in the long-run, which means exchange rate risk has negative effects on FIEs trading volumes. However, the exchange rate volatility

59、 impacts FIEs import more than on FIEs export, so it is reasonable to enlarge the flexibility to solve the trade surplus incurred by the FIEs. But imagine how RMB exchange rate volatility would affect the non-FIEs, Chine

60、se government should be very </p><p>　　In the long run, the level of RMB exchange rate impacts negatively on FIEs export and import too. The appreciation of RMB impacts FIEs export more severely than on FIEs

61、 import. The causes could be related to the prevalent processing trade pattern of Chinese FIEs. The FIEs processing trade is depending on the mode of importing materials and key processing parts, then processing them to

62、sell in overseas final markets.</p><p>　　In short run, exchange rate volatility impacts FIEs export negatively, but impacts FIEs import positively. The level of exchange rate impacts positively FIEs export p

63、ositively in short-run, and has ambiguous effect on FIEs import.</p><p>　　Besides, the FDI and openness promote FIEs export prominently in long-run and short-run. But this paper can not find co-integration r

64、elationship among the studied variables.</p><p>　　In conclusion, the Chinese government might enlarge the daily floating range of RMB exchange rate gradually and slowly, avoiding inducing too much risk into