金融學(xué)外文翻譯------匯率和貿(mào)易平衡的關(guān)系東盟國家的經(jīng)驗

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目： EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE BALANCE RELATIONSHIP: THE EXPERIENCE OF ASEAN COUNTRIES </p><p>　　出 處： Internatio

2、nal Trade 2003 </p><p>　　作 者：Khim-Sen Liew， Kian-Ping Lim，Huzaimi Hussain </p><p><b>　　原

3、文 :</b></p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　This study addresses the question of whether exchange rate changes have any significant and direct impact on trade balance. By examini

4、ng the trade balances between ASEAN-5 countries and Japan for the sample period from 1986 to 1999, this study found that the role of exchange rate changes in initiating changes in the trade balances has been exaggerated.

5、 As such, an alternative explanation to the observed behaviour of ASEAN-5 trade balances in the selected sample period has been postulated. In par</p><p>　　Keywords: Exchange rate; Trade balance; Real money;

6、 Purchasing power parity; ASEAN-5 Economies.</p><p>　　I. INTRODUCTION</p><p>　　Exchange rate is one of the important prices in an open economy since it affects so many business, investment and

7、policy decisions. Thus, it is not surprising to learn that the study of exchange rate has been one of the most important areas of economic research over the past few decades. This body of research has experienced tremend

8、ous growth, especially in the post-Bretton Woods era in which foreign exchange rate has been highly volatile after the inception of the floating exchange rate regime </p><p>　　One of the areas of research th

9、at has drawn the attention of researchers is the exchange ratetrade balance relationship. The elasticity model of the balance of trade (Krueger, 1983) has shown the existence of a theoretical relationship between exchang

10、e rate and the trade balance. Empirically, various studies have been conducted to assess the influence of exchange rate on trade balance, with the objective of providing valuable inputs to policy makers on the effectiven

11、ess of exchange rate policy s</p><p>　　and Lowinger, 2002; Singh, 2002). In theory, nominal depreciation (appreciation) of exchange rate is assumed to change the real exchange rate (see, for instance, Himari

12、os, 1989; Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001) and thus has a direct effect on the trade balance. Specifically, Bahmani-Oskooee (2001) noted that in an effort to gain international competitiveness and help to improve its trade balance

13、, a country may adhere to devaluation or allow her currency to depreciate. Devaluation or depreciation increases</p><p>　　This study attempts to investigate whether exchange rate changes have significant and

14、 direct impact on the trade balances of ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) with Japan, one of their major trading partners. However, from our plots of the exchange rate and t

15、rade balances for these ASEAN-5 countries, it seems that the role of exchange rate changes in initiating changes in the trade balances has been exaggerated. These results come as no surprise beca</p><p>　　Th

16、e rest of this paper is outlined as follows. Section II describes the empirical data of this study. Section III examines the exchange rate-trade balance relationship between ASEAN-5 countries and Japan. The mathematical

17、derivation of the real money effect proposition is presented in Section IV. Section V provides empirical evidence of our proposition and the final section concludes this study.</p><p>　　II. EMPIRICAL DATA OF

18、 STUDY</p><p>　　This study examines the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in the context of ASEAN-5 economies with respect to Japan, one of their major trading partners. The end of period

19、nominal exchange rates for the countries involved, namely Indonesia (IDR), Japan (JPY), Malaysia (MYR), the Philippines (PHP), Singapore (SGD) and Thailand (THB) are collected from various issues of International Financi

20、al Statistics (IMF). Our trade balance data is constructed by subtracting imports payment</p><p>　　In this study, nominal bilateral exchange rate is defined as the foreign price of domestic currency. For exa

21、mple, the JPY/MYR exchange rate refers to the unit price of Malaysia ringgit (MYR) in terms of Japanese yen (JPY). The Japanese yen-based nominal bilateral exchange rates of these ASEAN-5 economies, together with their c

22、orresponding long-term trends are plotted in Figure 1. A stylised fact depicted in these plots is that, in the period of study, the nominal exchange rates of these ASEAN-5 </p><p>　　The plots of trade balanc

23、es of ASEAN-5 economies with respect to their major trading partner- Japan are shown in Figure 2. The Malaysian trade balance generally deteriorates from 1986 to 1995, and from then it improves until 1999, the end period

24、 of this study. Similar stylised trend is clearly observed in the case of the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, with the exception of Indonesian trade balance, in which the trend is less obvious.</p><p>　

25、　III. EXCHANGE RATE-TRADE BALANCE RELATIONSHIP</p><p>　　The elasticity model of the balance of trade (Krueger, 1983) has shown the existence of a theoretical relationship between exchange rate and the trade

26、balance. Generally, the nominal depreciation (appreciation) of exchange rate is assumed to change the real exchange rate (see for instance, Himarios, 1989; and Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001) and thus has a direct effect on trade

27、 balance. Bahmani-Oskooee (2001) noted that in an effort to gain international competitiveness and help to improve its trade bala</p><p>　　expensive, thus improving trade balance.</p><p>　　With

28、the above optimistic view, one would expect that the depreciation of ASEAN-5 exchange rates with respect to Japanese yen would improve these economies’ trade balances with respect to Japan, during the sample period of st

29、udy. However, from our plots of the exchange rates (Figure 1) and trade balances (Figure 2), the impact of the depreciation of ASEAN-5 exchange rates (Figure 1, downwards–sloping long-term trend) on the bilateral trade b

30、alances is surprisingly the other way round. For instan</p><p>　　Similar phenomenon is observed in other countries (except Indonesia, in which the trend is less clear). For period post 1995, there exists a s

31、hort-run improvement of trade balance in all cases (except Indonesia). In particular, the trade balances recorded surpluses only in the last 3 years or so of our sample period comprising of 14 years in total. It seems th

32、at the role of exchange rate changes in initiating changes in the trade balances has been exaggerated. These results come as no surprise b</p><p>　　VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS</p><p>　　This study add

33、resses the question of whether exchange rate changes have any significant and direct impact on trade balance. While the elasticity model of the balance of trade (Krueger, 1983) has shown the existence of a theoretical re

34、lationship between exchange rate and the trade balance, the empirical results on this relationship have been ambiguous. By examining the trade balances between ASEAN-5 countries and Japan for the sample period from 1986

35、to 1999, this study found that the role of exc</p><p>　　An alternative explanation to the observed behaviour of ASEAN-5 trade balances in the selected sample period has been postulated. We have shown mathema

36、tically that trade balance is affected by real money, rather than the nominal exchange rate. Thus, we propose that trade balance of a country will improve if its real money is less than that of Japan in value. The econom

37、ic logic of this hypothesis is that whenever the real money of a domestic country is less than the real money of Japan, domestic </p><p>　　Our empirical data analysis suggests that the real money effect prop

38、osition could consistently explain the observed trade balances in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines during the period of study, with respect to Japan. Thus, in order to cope with trade deficits, the gover

39、nments of these ASEAN countries might resort to policy measures focusing on the variable of real money, which is the ratio of nominal money to aggregate price level. On the other hand, for devaluation-based adjus</p&g

40、t;<p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　匯率和貿(mào)易平衡的關(guān)系:東盟國家的經(jīng)驗</p><p><b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　本文主要研究匯率變動是否直接影響貿(mào)易收支情況。通過對1986年到1999年為采樣周期的東盟5國和日本的貿(mào)易差額的調(diào)查，該研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，匯率變化這一角

41、色在引發(fā)貿(mào)易平衡的變化時的作用被夸大了。同時，對東盟5國貿(mào)易的采樣周期的選擇的另一解釋也已被假定。我們特意提出了貿(mào)易平衡是受實際有效匯率的影響而不是名義匯率。并以一個數(shù)學(xué)框架，為支持我們的建議提供理論背景。我們的經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，實際有效匯率的一貫主張可以解釋在留學(xué)期間觀察到的馬來西亞、新加坡、泰國、菲律賓與日本的貿(mào)易平衡。因此，為了應(yīng)對貿(mào)易赤字，這些東盟國家政府可能采取的政策措施集中于實際貨幣帶來的變化。</p><

42、;p>　　關(guān)鍵詞: 匯率，貿(mào)易平衡，實際有效匯率，購買力平價，東盟5國經(jīng)濟(jì)</p><p><b>　　一、介紹</b></p><p>　　匯率是開放經(jīng)濟(jì)中重要的價格之一，它影響著很多的商業(yè)，投資和政策決定。因此，在過去的幾十年，匯率的研究一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)研究的最重要領(lǐng)域之一，這并不奇怪。這個研究機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了巨大成長，特別是在1973年成立浮動匯率制度以來，極不穩(wěn)

43、定的布雷頓森林體系時代之后。</p><p>　　其中已經(jīng)引起了研究人員關(guān)注的領(lǐng)域之一是匯率變動與貿(mào)易平衡的關(guān)系。（Krueger，1983）對于貿(mào)易平衡的彈性模型顯示了匯率和貿(mào)易平衡之間存在的理論關(guān)系。而匯率對貿(mào)易平衡的影響已進(jìn)行了各項研究，為有效的匯率政策的制定者提供有價值的信息，如基于調(diào)整的匯率貶值政策（通過名義匯率的影響）的效力，以平衡一個國家的外貿(mào)（見例：Greenwood, 1984; Himario

44、s, 1989; Rose and Yellen, 1989; Bahmani-Oskooee, 1991;Mahdavi and Sohrabian, 1993; Arize, 1994; Buluswar et al., 1996; Rahman and Mustafa,1996; Rahman et al., 1997; Wei, 1999; Baharumshah, 2001; Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001; La

45、l and Lowinger, 2002; Singh, 2002)。在理論上，名義匯率貶值（升值）是假定實際匯率的變化（見，例如，Himarios，1989; Bahmani-Oskooee，</p><p>　　本文試圖探討匯率變動是否對東盟五國（印度尼西亞，馬來西亞，菲律賓，新加坡和泰國），與它們的主要貿(mào)易伙伴之一日本的貿(mào)易平衡有顯著和直接的影響。不過，從匯率和這些東盟5國的貿(mào)易平衡的情況來看，似乎匯率的變

46、化對貿(mào)易平衡的作用被夸大了。這個結(jié)果并不奇怪，因為多項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)匯率變動與貿(mào)易平衡是以薄弱的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)連接著的（例如，Greenwood, 1984; Rose and Yellen, 1989; Mahdavi and Sohrabian, 1993; Buluswar et al.,1996; Rahman and Mustafa, 1996; Rahman et al., 1997)。因此，本文在對東盟5國貿(mào)易平衡采樣期間的實測行為提

47、出另一種解釋。特別是，假定貿(mào)易平衡是受實際有效匯率的影響而不是名義匯率。并以一個數(shù)學(xué)框架為這個命題的提出提供理論背景。我們的實證數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，實際有效匯率的一貫主張可以解釋在學(xué)習(xí)期間觀察到的關(guān)于馬來西亞，新加坡，泰國和菲律賓與日本的貿(mào)易平衡。</p><p>　　這份文件其它內(nèi)容如下： 第二部分，說明這項研究的經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)；第三部分，審查東盟5國和日本匯率-貿(mào)易平衡關(guān)系；第四部分，提出實際匯率效果的數(shù)學(xué)衍生；第五部分

48、提出我們的結(jié)論,以最后一節(jié)結(jié)束這項研究。</p><p><b>　　二、研究的實證分析</b></p><p>　　本文探討了東盟5國與它們的主要貿(mào)易伙伴之一日本經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的匯率和貿(mào)易平衡之間的關(guān)系。本文收集了來自國際金融統(tǒng)計(IMF)的各國，即印尼(IDR),日本(日元)、馬來西亞(MYR)、菲律賓(PHP)、新加坡(SGD)和泰國(泰幣)近期的名義匯率。由樣本涵蓋

49、了1986年至1999年的出口收入與進(jìn)口支付構(gòu)建的貿(mào)易平衡數(shù)據(jù)，其兩者都是從貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計年鑒（IMF）中得到。而樣本期間是根據(jù)在學(xué)習(xí)期間的進(jìn)口和出口數(shù)據(jù)的可用性來選擇的。此外，這些國家的消費者價格指數(shù)（CPI），即用來估計均衡匯率所提出的購買力平價（PPP）的假說，是從國際金融統(tǒng)計中收集的。</p><p>　　在這項研究中，名義雙邊匯率是指外國的本國貨幣的價格。例如，日元/馬幣是指馬來西亞林吉特（MYR）單價在日元

50、條款中的匯率。以日元計價的ASEAN-5經(jīng)濟(jì)的名義雙邊匯率,連同其相應(yīng)的長期的趨勢繪制于圖1。而對這種情況的描述是，在學(xué)習(xí)期間，相對于日本（日元）這些東盟5國經(jīng)濟(jì)中名義匯率是貶值的。每個名義雙邊匯率呈現(xiàn)長期的向下傾斜的趨勢這是有目共睹的。在學(xué)習(xí)期間東盟5國匯率的貶值，主要是由于日元相對于美元升值，而在同一時期，東盟5國對美國的計價匯率或保持穩(wěn)定或貶值。</p><p>　　而東盟5國與他們的合作伙伴日本的主要貿(mào)易

51、情況，見圖2。1986年至1995年，馬來西亞一般貿(mào)易平衡惡化，而此后一直到1999年即這項研究的末期均得到改善。類似的趨勢能明顯觀察到的有菲律賓，新加坡和泰國的情況，這種趨勢不太明顯的貿(mào)易平衡異常的是印度尼西亞。</p><p>　　三、匯率-貿(mào)易平衡關(guān)系</p><p>　?。↘rueger，1983）關(guān)于貿(mào)易平衡的彈性模型顯示了匯率和貿(mào)易平衡之間存在的理論關(guān)系。一般來說，名義匯率貶值

52、（升值）是假定實際匯率的變化（見，例如，Himarios，1989; Bahmani-Oskooee，2001），因而對貿(mào)易平衡產(chǎn)生直接影響。Bahmani-Oskooee（2001）指出，為了提高其國際競爭力，達(dá)到貿(mào)易平衡，一個國家可能會持續(xù)貶值或讓她的貨幣降價。貶值或降價是通過出口品相對便宜而增加出口，而且使進(jìn)口品相對昂貴以阻礙進(jìn)口，從而改善貿(mào)易平衡。</p><p>　　隨著上述樂觀的看法，通過樣本期間的研

53、究，人們會期望東盟5國對日元匯率的貶值可以提高這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貿(mào)易平衡。然而，從我們所得到的匯率（圖1）和貿(mào)易平衡（圖2）來看，東盟5國匯率貶值（圖1，長期的傾斜趨勢）對雙邊貿(mào)易平衡的影響，是令人驚訝的相反。例如，我們觀察到，1986年至1995年馬來西亞貿(mào)易平衡實際上惡化了而不是改善，盡管事實是在此期間馬幣貶值。</p><p>　　類似的現(xiàn)象也在其他國家觀察到（除印度尼西亞，其中的趨勢是不太清楚）。而1995年后

54、，在所有情況下貿(mào)易平衡存在著短期的改善（除印度尼西亞）。特別是，貿(mào)易平衡不管是在過去3年或我們的樣本期間共14年都記錄有盈余。由此看來，似乎匯率的變化對貿(mào)易平衡的作用被夸大了。這個結(jié)果并不奇怪，因為多項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)匯率變動與貿(mào)易平衡是以薄弱的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)連接著的（例如，Greenwood, 1984; Rose and Yellen, 1989; Mahdavi and Sohrabian, 1993; Buluswar et al.,1996

55、; Rahman and Mustafa, 1996; Rahman et al., 1997)。在這種情況下，調(diào)整的貶值政策可能無法實現(xiàn)預(yù)期的名義匯率變動（貶值）對貿(mào)易平衡的效果。樂觀的理論觀點和經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)不一致都表示有必要轉(zhuǎn)向其他視角，它可以為數(shù)據(jù)提供令人滿意的解釋。其中一個可行方法，是購買力平價（PPP）的假設(shè)。特別是，實際有效匯率對相對價格變動的影響，必須加以考慮。這是因為貿(mào)易平衡基于對外國商品與國內(nèi)商品的需求而定，而這些需求則取

56、決于國外國內(nèi)價格比。</p><p><b>　　六、總結(jié)</b></p><p>　　本研究解決了匯率變動是否直接影響貿(mào)易的平衡這一重大的問題。雖然對貿(mào)易平衡（克魯格，1983）的彈性模型顯示了匯率和貿(mào)易平衡之間理論關(guān)系的存在，且這種關(guān)系的實證結(jié)果也已經(jīng)明確。但通過對東盟5個國家與日本之間的貿(mào)易的考察，以及1986年至1999年間的樣本的選擇，本研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，匯率變動對

57、貿(mào)易平衡的作用被夸大了。在樣本期間的研究中人們普遍預(yù)測，東盟5國匯率方面對日元貶值將提高這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體與日本間的貿(mào)易平衡。而在現(xiàn)實中，1986年至1995年這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體實際觀測到的是一般貿(mào)易平衡先是惡化（除印度尼西亞外，其中的趨勢不太清楚），然后才得以改善。這些結(jié)果中一個重要含義是，調(diào)整的貨幣貶值政策可能無法實現(xiàn)預(yù)期的名義匯率變動（貶值）對貿(mào)易平衡的效果。換句話說，匯率不能單獨使用以管理這些東盟國家的外部平衡。</p><

58、p>　　而另一種解釋東盟5國抽選的樣本期間所觀察到的假設(shè)行為已經(jīng)表明，貿(mào)易平衡是受實際有效匯率的影響而不是名義匯率。因此，我們建議，一國的貿(mào)易平衡將有所改善的，則其實際匯率比日本低。這個假說的經(jīng)濟(jì)邏輯是，每當(dāng)一國實際國內(nèi)的貨幣比日本真正的貨幣少，其結(jié)果是本國貨幣將比日本的貨幣相對購買力下降了。因此，在日本的眼中其國內(nèi)商品和服務(wù)似乎更便宜，從而進(jìn)口更多的商品和服務(wù)。而另一方面，日本商品和服務(wù)被認(rèn)為更加昂貴，國內(nèi)公民將減少購買日本商品

59、和服務(wù)。對降低本國貨幣的購買力最終的結(jié)果是，相對于日本而言該國內(nèi)的貿(mào)易平衡得到改善。同樣的道理，如果它真正的貨幣實際比日元的更多，國內(nèi)的貿(mào)易平衡將惡化。</p><p>　　我們的實證數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，實際有效匯率命題能夠明確的解釋在學(xué)習(xí)期間觀察到的馬來西亞，新加坡，泰國和菲律賓與日本的貿(mào)易平衡關(guān)系。因此，為了應(yīng)對貿(mào)易赤字，這些東盟國家的政府可能采取的政策措施的重點變量是實際貨幣與名義貨幣價格水平之比。另一方面，在調(diào)

60、整的貨幣貶值政策（通過名義匯率的影響）實現(xiàn)貿(mào)易平衡的預(yù)期效果時，必須輔之以穩(wěn)定政策，保證國內(nèi)物價穩(wěn)定(Singh, 2002)。再次，重點強(qiáng)調(diào)不能只用匯率來管理這些東盟國家的外部平衡。</p><p><b>　　導(dǎo)師評語：</b></p><p>　　該同學(xué)能按時完成外文翻譯工作。翻譯內(nèi)容與畢業(yè)論文選題較為一致。翻譯質(zhì)量達(dá)到要求，語言較為準(zhǔn)確、語句較為通暢。篇幅達(dá)到