旅游業(yè)是長期經濟增長的因素以西班牙為例外文翻譯

1、<p><b>　　中文2966字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目：TOURISM AS LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTOR:THE SPANISH CASE </p><p>　　出 處：

2、 Primera Edición Junio 2000 Depósito Legal: V-2576-2000 </p><p>　　作 者： Jacint Balaguer and Manuel Cantavella-Jordá

3、 </p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p><p>　　TOURISM AS A LONG-RUN ECONOMIC</p><p>　　GROWTH FACTOR: THE SPANISH CASE</p><p>　　Jacint Balaguer and Manuel Cantavel

4、la-Jordá*</p><p>　　A B S T R A C T</p><p>　　This paper examines the role of tourism in the Spanish long-run economic development. The tourist-led growth hypothesis is tested. The results in

5、dicate that, at least, during the last three decades economic growth in Spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of international tourism. The increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time. E

6、xternal competitivity has also been proved in the model to be a fundamental variable for Spanish economic growth in the long run. From </p><p>　　Key words: economic growth, international tourism, multiplier

7、effects</p><p>　　I. INTRODUCTION</p><p>　　A distinctive feature of Spain is its importance as an international tourist destination as well as the relative weight that foreign exchange income ha

8、s in its economy. As a matter of fact, the earnings from tourism have systematically compensated Spanish trade imbalances since the seventies. In view of this situation, the economists have very often taken for granted t

9、hat the inflow of foreign exchange for this concept would stimulate a country’s economic development. Nevertheless, this hypothes</p><p>　　Several decades of tourist expansion in Spain may probably represent

10、 enough time to examine if international tourism growth has significantly contributed to the country´s economic development. The analysis should go beyond its own multiplier effects. Thus, the main objective of this

11、 paper is to asses whether and, if so, to what extent Spanish economic growth responds to the evolution of external tourist activity during the 1975-1997 period. The background on this question is referred to the lite<

12、;/p><p>　　As in the export-led growth hypothesis, a tourist-led growth hypothesis would postulate the existence of various arguments for which tourism would become a main determinant of overall long-run economi

13、c growth. In a more traditional sense it should be argued that tourism brings in foreign exchange which can be used to import capital goods in order to produce goods and services, leading in turn to economic growth. If t

14、hose imports are capital goods or basic inputs for producing goods in any area o</p><p>　　On the other hand, international tourism would contribute to an income increase at least in two additional ways as th

15、e export-led growth hypothesis postulates. In the first place, enhancing efficiency through increased competition among firms and others international tourist destinations (Bhagwati and Srinivasan, 1979; Krueger, 1980),

16、and in the second place, facilitating the exploitation of economies of scale in local firms (Helpman and Krugman,1985).</p><p>　　Taking into account that a large proportion of a tourist's expenditure is

17、spent on the consumption of non-traded goods and services in the host country, there exist factors which can have either a positive role or an unfavourable impact on economic growth. Non-traded goods and services are not

18、 exportables in the traditional sense because their price is not determined in the international market, but in the local market. Obviously, tourists' consumption of non-traded goods and services has a impa</p>

19、<p>　　In the static framework, there are at least two analytical papers which examine the relationship between tourism and welfare where tourists consume non-traded goods and services. In the first paper, Hazari a

20、nd Ng (1993) show that in a monopoly power framework, tourism may be welfare reducing. In the second paper, Hazari and Kaur (1993) argue that in a Komiya (1967) type first-best model, tourism is always welfare improving.

21、</p><p>　　More recently, Hazari and Sgro (1995) developed a dynamic model in which a favourable impact of a buoyant world demand for tourism would have a positive effect on the long-run growth of a small ec

22、onomy. This favourable impact is generated by tourism behaviour as a time-saving device which allows domestic population to consume now rather than later due to the requirement of a lower saving rate.</p><p>

23、;　　The remainder structure of this paper is organised as follows. In section II, a tourism growth model is presented. Section III discusses the employed methodology and results. Section IV provides the main conclusions o

24、f the analysis.</p><p>　　II. MODEL SPECIFICATION AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS</p><p>　　In order to explain the growth rate of output over long periods one is usually referred to a couple of compleme

25、ntary approaches. One is growth theory, which models the interactions among factor supplies, productivity growth, saving, and investment in the process of growth. The other is growth accounting, which attempts to quanti

26、fy the contribution of different determinants of output growth. Most papers, have been concentrated on the so-called export-led growth hypothesis for both developing and</p><p>　　t=1975Q1…1997Q1</p>&

27、lt;p>　　1975Q1 stands for the first quarter of 1975; analogously for 1997Q1.</p><p>　　Since Y, TOUSA and q are expressed in natural logarithms, the coefficients of the last two variables are elasticities;

28、 Y is real gross domestic product; TOUSA is international tourism earnings in real terms, q is the real effective exchange rate; u is the error term which represents omitted factors left out by the deterministic part

29、of the model (see Appendix for more details about variables).</p><p>　　Before the long-run relationship between tourism and growth in Spain can be determined it is important to carry out a univariate analysi

30、s. Testing stationarity of time series leads to the implementation of the econometric model using the appropriate methodology. The stationarity of the series was investigated by employing the unit root tests developed by

31、 Dickey and Fuller (1979, 1981), and Phillips and Perron (1988).</p><p>　　III. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS</p><p>　　Both λMAX and Trace tests suggest that there is a cointegrating relationship. It

32、indicates that tourism positively affects Spanish economic growth over time. These results show that single-equation estimation for an increase in tourism can capture the long-run relationship. The existing correlation b

33、etween economic growth and foreign exchange income from tourism is not spurious.</p><p>　　From the estimates one can infer that the presence of multiplier effects on income are really important. The interpr

34、etation of the elasticity of economic growth with respect to tourism should read as follows: a 5 per cent of a sustained growth rate in foreign exchange earnings from tourism would imply an estimated increase of almost 1

35、.5 percent domestic real income in the long run. This is a significant fact since tourism in Spain has never represented, so far, more than 5 per cent of overall S</p><p>　　As in most of empirical research a

36、bout the influence of exports in the economic growth, the external competition has a relevant role when analysing a possible long-run relationship. Therefore, the estimate of the corresponding elasticity would indicate t

37、hat in general, an increase of the Spanish economy competitivity with regard to industrialized countries would have had significant effects on its economic growth rate in the last three decades.</p><p>　　In

38、order to examine the robustness of the above results one is referred to Table 4 which reports the outcomes of the parameter restriction tests for economic growth, tourism and exchange rate variables. The restriction is t

39、hat each coefficient of the corresponding variables is zero. This hypothesis is rejected for Y, TOUSA and q. Therefore, all variables are significant at 5 per cent significance level. It should be noted, then, that the c

40、ombination of those three variables in the model is impor</p><p>　　IV. CONCLUDING REMARKS</p><p>　　As in the export-led growth literature the relationship between economic growth and internatio

41、nal tourism has been examined. Since the variables included in the model are non-stationary and present a unit root, the Johansen technique has been applied. This methodology has allowed to obtain a cointegrating relatio

42、nship among the variables. These variables represent indicators of Spanish economic growth, international tourism income and external competitivity. The cointegration results provide ev</p><p>　　As expected,

43、 the earnings from international tourism affect positively the Spanish economic growth. The strong impact of tourist activity, according to the magnitude of the estimated parameter would reveal the existence of important

44、 long-run multiplier effects.These results would support the main predictions made by those models which treat tourism as both a non-traded good and a service. Contrary to what the traditional export-led growth literatur

45、e predicts, tourism-led growth is not specific o</p><p>　　In addition to this, the convergence of those two variables (income and tourism earnings) is sustained by the inclusion of external competitivity. Th

46、is variable has been proved to be also fundamental in the rapid growth of the Spanish economy over time.</p><p>　　Finally, the significant impact of tourism on the Spanish economy justifies the necessity of

47、public intervention aimed to, on the one hand, promote and increase international tourism demand and on the other hand provide and foster the development of tourism supply .At the same time, a warning on possible dangers

48、 derived from underestimating the importance of expenditure in tourist infrastructure, undervaluing financial support toward the efforts of entrepreneurial initiative and minimising the s</p><p><b>　　譯

49、 文：</b></p><p>　　旅游業(yè)是長期經濟增長的因素：以西班牙為例</p><p><b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　本文探討了旅游業(yè)對西班牙長期經濟發(fā)展的作用。對旅游帶動經濟增長這個假設進行驗證。結果表明，至少，在過去的三十年里，西班牙的經濟增長與國際旅游業(yè)的持續(xù)增長有著密切的關系。隨著時間的推移，乘數效

50、應也伴隨著旅游這項活動的增加而產生。該模型也證明外部競爭力也是影響西班牙經濟長期增長的基本變量。從實證分析可以推斷，政府的政策充分的用于推廣旅游活動，也可能會帶來可觀的收入。</p><p>　　關鍵詞：經濟增長，國際旅游，乘數效應</p><p><b>　　一、引言</b></p><p>　　西班牙的一個顯著特點是，它是國際旅游者經常選擇

51、的目的地，因此，外匯收入在其經濟中占很重要的位置。事實上，七十年代以來，旅游收入一直是補償西班牙貿易失衡的關鍵部分。由于這種情況，經濟學家們往往會理所當然的認為，外匯流入將刺激一個國家的經濟發(fā)展。不過，這種假設還沒有被驗證過，因此對這一情況進行實證分析，看旅游收入隨著時間的推移是否對經濟有著長期的顯著作用，會是大家感興趣的。</p><p>　　西班牙旅游擴張的幾十年，就給了我們足夠的時間來考察國際旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展是

52、否大大促進了該國的經濟發(fā)展。這一分析需要在其乘數效應下進行。因此，本文的主要目標是驗證1975-1997年期間，旅游業(yè)與西班牙經濟增長是否有關，以及外部旅游活動在何種程度上作用于西班牙的經濟增長。關于這個問題的研究背景是相關文獻中提到的出口帶動增長的假設，以及，近來一些關于描述非商品貿易如旅游業(yè)的理論模型的文獻。</p><p>　　就如同在出口導向型增長假說，旅游帶動增長的假說中，假設存在各種參數的情況下旅游業(yè)

53、將會成為經濟整體長期增長的主要決定因素。更傳統(tǒng)的觀點是這樣旅游業(yè)帶來的外匯收入可用來進口資本物品，用以生產商品和服務，從而帶動經濟增長。如果這些進口的資本物品或基本投入，用于任何經濟領域的商品生產，那么，可以說旅游收入在經濟發(fā)展中起基礎性作用。顯然，旅游業(yè)外的其他領域也會在國家分配中受益。</p><p>　　另一方面，出口導向型增長假說，假設至少有兩個方法使國際旅游業(yè)有利于增加一國收入。第一，通過加強企業(yè)間，以

54、及與其他國際旅游目的地間的競爭力(Bhagwati and Srinivasan, 1979; Krueger, 1980)。第二，促進本地企業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模經濟(Helpman and Krugman, 1985)。</p><p>　　考慮到旅游開支的很大部分，是在東道國非貿易商品和服務上的消費，這里就存在一定因素，可能會對東道國產生積極影響也有可能產生不利影響。在傳統(tǒng)的意義上，非貿易商品和服務并非用于出口，所以，

55、他們的價格不是由國際市場決定的而是由國內市場所決定的。顯然，游客對非貿易商品和服務的消費會對其價格產生影響，從而可能會影響到國內消費這的消費。</p><p>　　在靜態(tài)框架內，至少有兩篇分析文獻，是關于檢驗游客消費非貿易商品和服務中旅游業(yè)和福利之間的關系的。在第一篇文獻中，Hazari and Ng (1993)表明，在壟斷框架下，旅游業(yè)可能導致福利的減少。在第二篇文獻中，Hazari and Kaur (19

56、93)認為，在Komiya (1967)類型的第一個最佳模型中，旅游業(yè)總能帶來福利的改善。</p><p>　　近期，Hazari and Sgro (1995)建立了一個動態(tài)模型，在這個模型中旅游的世界性需求浮動會對小型經濟的長期發(fā)展積極的影響。這種有利的影響是由于對更低節(jié)省率的需求，而旅游行為作為一種節(jié)省時間的方式，可以允許當地人口當前消費而不是以后。</p><p>　　本文的其余部

57、分的結構安排如下。第二部分，建立旅游經濟增長模型。第三部分討論模型采用的方法以及結果。第四部分則是表明分析的主要結論。</p><p>　　二、模型說明和時間序列分析</p><p>　　為了解釋長期產出的增長速度，常會用到兩個方法。一個是增長理論，它把增長過程中要素供給、技術進步、儲蓄和投資的互動關系模型化。另一個是增長核算，他試圖把產量增長的不同決定因素的貢獻程度數量化。大多數的文獻，

58、將所謂的出口導向型增長假說同時運用在發(fā)展中國家和工業(yè)化國家。但是，本文的主要目標，正如前面都提到的，是分析旅游在西班牙這個發(fā)展中國家的中的地位角色。先假設，旅游是西班牙經濟的長期增長的重大的決定因素，然后，進行驗證。模型包括國內生產總值，旅游收入和匯率。以西班牙是一個小的經濟開放國為假設的基礎，這些變量是至少的，更多的變量也將考慮進來。以下是計量公式：</p><p>　　t=1975Q1…1997Q1</

59、p><p>　　1975Q1代表1975年第一季度；類似的1997Q1代表1997第一季度。</p><p>　　為了消除異方差，將Y，TOUSA和q取自然對數，分別代表國內生產總值，實際國際旅游收入和匯率；u為隨機誤差項。</p><p>　　在確定旅游業(yè)對西班牙經濟是否存在長期增長關系前，可以對其進行單因素分析。時間序列的平穩(wěn)性檢驗是經濟經濟模型常采用的方法。Dic

60、key和 Fuller (1979, 1981), Phillips 和Perron (1988)，對這一系列平穩(wěn)性數據進行進一步研究，引入了單位根檢驗。</p><p><b>　　方法和結果</b></p><p>　　最大特征值檢驗和跟蹤測試檢驗都證明存在協(xié)整關系。這表明，旅游業(yè)隨著時間的推移對西班牙的經濟增長有著積極正面的影響。這些結果表明，單方程估計可證明旅

61、游業(yè)與經濟增長存在長期關系。經濟增長與旅游業(yè)帶來的外匯收入相關也是真的。</p><p>　　從估計可以推斷出，乘數效益的存在對收入的影響是非常重要的。關于在經濟增長方面的彈性解釋，旅游業(yè)方面應該如下所示：從長期看，從旅游業(yè)中所得到的外匯收入每增長五個百分點就意味著國內實際收入增加一點五個百分點。這是一個重要的事實，到目前為止，西班牙旅游業(yè)收入從沒出現(xiàn)過超過西班牙總收入的百分之五。</p><

62、p>　　正如許多關于出口對經濟增長的實證研究一樣，在分析可能存在的長期關系時，相關外部競爭力也起相應的作用。因此，一般情況下相應的彈性估計表明：在過去的三十年，作為工業(yè)化國家，西班牙經濟競爭力的提高對其經濟增長速度的加快有著重要的影響。</p><p>　　為了證實以上結果的可靠性，請參考表4，旅游業(yè)收入和外匯變量參數限制性測試結果。這種限制是限定每個相應的變量參數為零。這個假設是對Y, TOUSA和Q的拒

63、絕。因此，所以變量都對證明百分之五這個顯著性水平意義重大。應當指出的，該模型的三個變量的結合，對于獲得可靠的長期關系非常重要。外部競爭（Q）對西班牙經濟增長，存在長期持續(xù)的影響。事實上，當這個變量被排除的話，經濟增長和旅游業(yè)之間不存在協(xié)整關系。</p><p><b>　　結論</b></p><p>　　已經對經濟增長和國際旅游業(yè)之間關系進行了檢驗。運用Johans

64、en 技術排除了自變量在模型中的非平穩(wěn)性和單位根。這種方法使變量間保持協(xié)整性關系，這些變量代表了西班牙的經濟增長，國際旅游收入和外部競爭力。協(xié)整性檢驗證明變量之間存在獨特的協(xié)整性關系。所以，它的估計解釋是簡單的。分析表明，經濟增長與旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展之間存在著長期穩(wěn)定關系。</p><p>　　正如之前所料，國際旅游收入對西班牙經濟增長有著積極地作用。根據規(guī)模估計參數，旅游活動的重要影響也顯示了它存在重要的長期乘數效應

65、。這些結果支持了建立模型之前的預測，將旅游業(yè)視為非一般貿易商品和服務。與預測傳統(tǒng)的出口導向增長的相關文獻相反，旅游帶動增長在發(fā)展中國家不是具體的，它所帶來的外匯收入是某些經濟部門存在競爭優(yōu)勢的基礎。將更廣泛的影響歸結為旅游活動。它影響到大部分的第三產業(yè)部門以及非耐用品的消防部門。另一方面，似乎這樣可能會產生以下影響，國內價格增加帶來的福利減少超過了全國整體福利補償的積極作用(Hazari and Ng,1993)。</p>

66、<p>　　除了這一點，這兩個變量的收斂性（國內生產總值和旅游業(yè)收入）是靠外部競爭力所持續(xù)的。這個變量被證明在西班牙經濟的長期快速增長中也起至關重要的作用。</p><p>　　最后，旅游業(yè)對西班牙經濟的重要影響證明了公共干預的必要性，一方面，促進和加強國際旅游需求，另一方面，提供和促進旅游業(yè)的供給的發(fā)展。與此同時，對旅游基礎設施開支重要性估計不足，低估財政對創(chuàng)業(yè)主動性的支持，以及對保護自然和社會文化