外文翻譯--中國(guó)的fdi國(guó)內(nèi)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：一個(gè)時(shí)間序列分析

1、<p><b>　　中文3080字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目： Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis　　　 </p>

2、<p>　　出 處： The World Economy, 2008.10,1467-9701. </p><p>　　作 者： Sumei Tang, E. A. Selvanathan and S. Selvanathan. </p><p><b>　　外文原稿</b></

3、p><p>　　Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis</p><p>　　Sumei Tang, E. A. Selvanathan and S. Selvanathan</p><p>　　Introduct

4、ion</p><p>　　Despite a large amount of literature on the subject, the role of FDI in economic growth remains highly controversial. The proponents of FDI argue that it helps promote economic growth through te

5、chnology diffusion and human capital development. This is particularly the case when MNEs in a host economy have vertical inter-firm linkages with domestic firms or have sub-national or sub-regional clusters of inter-rel

6、ated activities. Through formal and informal links and social contacts among employees</p><p>　　In contrast, opponents of FDI argue that FDI crowds out domestic investment, and has an adverse effect on growt

7、h . In particular, the industrial organisation theory stipulates that FDI is an aggressive global strategy by MNEs to advance monopoly power over and above indigenous firms of the host economy. The ownership-specific adv

8、antages of MNEs (e.g.advanced technologies, management know-how skills, transaction cost minimising and other intangible advantages)could be transformed into monopoly po</p><p>　　The present paper contribute

9、s to the existing literature by applying a multivariate VAR system with the error correction model (ECM) and time series techniques of co-integration and innovation accounting to explore the possible links between FDI, d

10、omestic investment and economic growth in China. Specifically, we use the impulse response function and variance decomposition plus the Granger causality testing procedures to investigate whether: (1) FDI has a complemen

11、tary/substitution effect on dome</p><p>　　This paper differs from earlier studies in a number of respects. Firstly, it represents the first attempt to directly test the relationship between FDI and domestic

12、investment in China. Second, we use pure time-series data while previous studies use either cross-sectional or panel data, which are likely to suffer from problems of data comparability and heterogeneity. Third, earlier

13、studies do not test for causality between FDI, domestic investment and economic growth. The failure to consider the</p><p>　　The organisation of the paper is as follows. Section 2 offers an overview of FDI i

14、nflows, domestic investment and economic growth in China. This is followed by econometric analysis in Section 3. The final section of the paper presents the conclusion and some policy implications.</p><p>　　

15、AN OVERVIEW OF FDI INFLOWS, DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA: 1978–2003</p><p>　　In the early 1980s, special economic zones were formed with preferential policies including tax concessions an

16、d special privileges for foreign investors. During the reform period, the Chinese government introduced various new legislative measures to improve investment conditions and the business environment in order to attract F

17、DI.</p><p>　　Table 1 presents the ratios of FDI to GDP, DI to GDP, and FDI to DI from 1978 to 2003. As can be seen, the proportions of FDI to GDP (column 2) were quite low and less than 1 per cent until 1990

18、. It increased to a peak value of 6.2 per cent in 1994 and then steadily decreased to 3.8 per cent in 2003. The proportion of DI to GDP was 18.5 per cent in 1978 and increased steadily to 47.6 per cent in 2003. The propo

19、rtion of FDI to DI increased dramatically from 0.1 per cent in 1978 to 1.7 per cent in</p><p>　　3. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS</p><p>　　a. Data and Unit Root Test</p><p>　　Quart

20、erly time series data for FDI, DI and GDP are available and all in current prices of the Chinese currency (yuan). They are compiled from China Monthly Statistics(1987:1–2004:3),Comprehensive Statistical Data and Material

21、s for 50 Years of New Chinaand various issues of China Statistical Yearbook. GDP quarterly time series is constructed on the basis of the monthly gross industrial output (GIO) and the yearly GDP statistics due to lack of

22、 quarterly and monthly GDP statistics. It is found that</p><p>　　q=1,.......,4 t=1988,1989,........,2003</p><p>　　To minimise the effect of seasonal fluctuations when conducting co-integrat

23、ion analysis and model estimation, a variable of centred (orthogonalised) seasonal dummies is incorporated. The standard 0–1 seasonal dummy variables will affect both the mean and the trend of the level series in a VAR s

24、ystem but the centred seasonal dummy variable only shifts the mean without contributing to the trend . In this paper, we employ the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test to test the stationarity of the three </p><

25、;p>　　As can be seen from Figures 4(a–c), the three series appear to be non-stationary in level form. Therefore, we investigate the stationarity of the first difference of the three series by testing for unit roots. Th

26、e ADF tests are performed on both the level and first differenced observations by estimating the following three models:</p><p>　　? No constant and no trend model:</p><p><b>　?。?）</b>

27、;</p><p>　　? Constant and no trend model:</p><p><b>　?。?）</b></p><p>　　? Constant and trend model:</p><p><b>　　（3）</b></p><p>　　The

28、 results of the ADF test are shown in Table 2. They show that the null hypothesis of a unit root is: (a) accepted for the level series of FDI in all three models; (b) rejected for the level series of DI in model (3), and

29、 (c) rejected for the level series of GDP in model (1). Based on the first differenced data, the results indicate that all three series are stationary. Therefore, we conclude that the three time series are all integrated

30、 of order 1, I(1).</p><p>　　b. Testing for Co-integration of Variables</p><p>　　Now, the co-integration test is performed to investigate any long-term equilibrium relationships among the three v

31、ariables of FDI, DI and GDP. After a careful search and trial, a model with six lags, constant and centred seasonal dummy variable was chosen. The result of the Johansen co-integration rank test is summarised in Table 3,

32、 which indicates the presence of two co-integrating vectors at 1 per cent and 5 per cent levels of significance, respectively (i.e. The null hypotheses of no co-integ</p><p>　　c. The Error Correction Model&l

33、t;/p><p>　　To analyse the causal relationship between the three variables FDI, DI and GDP, we use an error correction model (ECM) of the following VAR system:</p><p>　　When applied to the Chinese d

34、ata, the VAR system performs quite well. As reported none of the diagnostic statistics are significant at the 95 per cent critical value. Therefore, there is nothing to suggest that the system model is incorrectly specif

35、ied. Based on the Schwarzz (1978) and Akaike (1974) information criteria, the number of lags is chosen as six.</p><p>　　d. Innovation Accounting and theGranger Causality Test</p><p>　　The innova

36、tion accounting (variance decomposition and impulse response function) technique can be utilised to examine the relationships among economic variables . Using this technique, Kim and Seo (2003) explored the complementary

37、 or substitution relationship between FDI and domestic investment, and analysed the impact of FDI on economic growth in South Korea. On the other hand, the forecast error variance decomposition allows us to make inferenc

38、es about the proportion of movements in a time ser</p><p>　　These results suggest that the strength of the relationships between FDI, domestic investment and economic growth are different. FDI plays an impor

39、tant role in China’s economic growth but its influences are less than that of domestic investment (5.7 per cent versus 17.6 per cent). GDP shows stronger influences on China’s domestic investment than FDI does (40.8 per

40、cent versus 3.5 per cent). The influences of DI and GDP on FDI are relatively low (2.4 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively). But </p><p>　　The Granger causality test results for the three variables. The

41、results show that: (i) the effects of DI and GDP on FDI are not statistically significant; (ii) the effects of FDI and GDP on DI are statistically significant; (iii)the effects of FDI and DI on GDP are statistically sign

42、ificant. Thus, FDI affects DI and GDP but not the reverse, whereas the causal links between GDP and DI are bi-directional. These findings confirm the results of the variance decomposition analysis.</p><p>　　

43、We now use the impulse response function to reveal the dynamic causal relationships between FDI, domestic investment and economic growth. </p><p>　　e. Empirical Findings</p><p>　　Using a VAR sys

44、tem with ECM, we have found the following:</p><p>　　1. FDI plays an important role in complementing domestic investment in China, the larger the FDI the greater the domestic investment. Further, FDI has a si

45、gnificant effect on China’s economic growth.</p><p>　　2. China’s domestic investment and economic growth are positively correlated; great economic growth spurs large domestic investment, and vice versa.</

46、p><p>　　3. China’s domestic investment and GDP do not have much impact on FDI inflows in the long run. The causal link between GDP and DI is bi-directional, but there is only a one-way directional causality fro

47、m FDI to DI and FDI to GDP.</p><p>　　4. China’s domestic investment has a greater impact on growth than FDI does.</p><p>　　These lend some support to the theoretical view that FDI has complement

48、ary</p><p>　　effects on domestic investment, and that long-term economic growth is positively associated with FDI.</p><p>　　CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS</p><p>　　Based on the

49、 empirical analysis and findings, we conclude that rather than crowding out domestic investment, FDI has a complementary relationship with domestic investment. FDI has not only assisted in overcoming shortages of capital

50、, it has also stimulated economic growth through complementing domestic investment in China. The findings of this study do have some important implications for policy makers in China and elsewhere. Since FDI complements

51、domestic investment, less developed countries ou</p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　中國(guó)的FDI,國(guó)內(nèi)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：一個(gè)時(shí)間序列分析</p><p><b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　盡管FDI對(duì)投資影

52、響的大量研究，F(xiàn)DI在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中扮演的角色也受到廣泛的爭(zhēng)議。FDI的支持者表示FDI可以通過(guò)技術(shù)外溢與人力資本發(fā)展帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。尤其是跨國(guó)公司在東道國(guó)與國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)間有垂直關(guān)系或與其他國(guó)家的子公司或區(qū)域部門內(nèi)部有垂直聯(lián)系。FDI流入高危領(lǐng)域或新興產(chǎn)業(yè)還克服了東道國(guó)資金短缺問(wèn)題。當(dāng)FDI進(jìn)入資源密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)時(shí)，相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的國(guó)內(nèi)投資也會(huì)受到刺激。FDI還有可能導(dǎo)致東道國(guó)出口需求增加，從而為出口產(chǎn)業(yè)吸引更多的投資。支持這一說(shuō)法的實(shí)證要求包括Sun（1

53、998）和Shan（2002）運(yùn)用傳統(tǒng)的回歸模型和面板數(shù)據(jù)，Sun發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)的FDI與國(guó)內(nèi)投資對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在高度積極關(guān)系。Shan運(yùn)用一個(gè)VAR模型去檢驗(yàn)中國(guó)的FDI，產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)和其他變量間的內(nèi)部聯(lián)系。他得出當(dāng)FDI在產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)出的比率上升時(shí)，F(xiàn)DI對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有極大的收益性影響。</p><p>　　相反，反對(duì)FDI促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)論者認(rèn)為FDI擠出國(guó)內(nèi)投資，并對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有負(fù)面影響。特別是，工業(yè)組織理論認(rèn)為FDI是跨國(guó)

54、公司為了在東道國(guó)超過(guò)本土企業(yè)，提升其壟斷力量的極具侵略性的全球戰(zhàn)略?？鐕?guó)公司的所有權(quán)優(yōu)勢(shì)（例如先進(jìn)的技術(shù)，管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)技巧，最小交易成本及其他無(wú)形優(yōu)勢(shì)）會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)為壟斷力。這種壟斷力量會(huì)進(jìn)一步地提升跨國(guó)公司其他兩方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)：市場(chǎng)內(nèi)部一體優(yōu)勢(shì)和市場(chǎng)定位優(yōu)勢(shì)（鄧寧）。此外，F(xiàn)DI也可能通過(guò)國(guó)內(nèi)商品的替代進(jìn)口破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)的后部聯(lián)系。</p><p>　　本文對(duì)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)的貢獻(xiàn)主要是通過(guò)建立多變量的誤差修正模型和時(shí)間序列協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和創(chuàng)新技

55、術(shù)會(huì)計(jì)去研究中國(guó)的FDI，國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間可能的因果聯(lián)系。具體地說(shuō),我們使用了脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解等方法,再加上格蘭杰因果關(guān)系測(cè)試過(guò)程,去分析下面的關(guān)系：1.FDI對(duì)中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)投資有互補(bǔ)或替代效應(yīng)；(2)FDI，國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)三者間存在相互因果關(guān)系；(3)FDI對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到了重要的作用；(4)FDI對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)超過(guò)國(guó)內(nèi)投資。</p><p>　　本文在許多方面和前期的一些研究存在不同。第一，這

56、是現(xiàn)有的研究中第一次直接去檢驗(yàn)中國(guó)的FDI和國(guó)內(nèi)投資間的聯(lián)系。第二，本文采用的是純時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)，與先前研究中使用可能引起數(shù)據(jù)可比性及不均勻性問(wèn)題的橫向或面板數(shù)據(jù)不同。第三，早期的研究沒(méi)有檢驗(yàn)FDI,跟國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間的因果關(guān)系。沒(méi)有考慮到變量間可能的雙向因果關(guān)系會(huì)引發(fā)并發(fā)性問(wèn)題。最后，我們的變量模型包括長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)因素、企業(yè)內(nèi)容管理。忽略這些動(dòng)態(tài)因素可能導(dǎo)致各種估計(jì)偏差。 </p><p>　　本文的框架如下：第

57、二部分講述中國(guó)的FDI流入，國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的概述；接下來(lái)的第三部分對(duì)此進(jìn)行分析；最后一部分得出結(jié)論并提出相關(guān)政策。</p><p>　　二、1978-2003中國(guó)的FDI流入，國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)概述</p><p>　　在20世紀(jì)80年代初期，向外國(guó)投資者提供稅收減免和經(jīng)濟(jì)特權(quán)的優(yōu)惠政策經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)成立。在改革開(kāi)放期間, 為了吸引外商直接投資中國(guó)政府出臺(tái)了許多新的改善投資和經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境立法措施

58、。表1表示1978年--2003年的FDI/GDP,DI/GDP和FDI/DI的比率變化。從表中可以看出，F(xiàn)DI/GDP的比率到1992年為止都低于1%，在1994年達(dá)到高峰6.2%，然后又逐漸下降至2003年的3.8%。DI/GDP的比率從1978年的18.5%已快速增長(zhǎng)到2003年的47.6%。FDI/DI的比率從1978年0.1%急劇增加到1984年的1.7%，到1994年已達(dá)到了18.1%的空前的高峰。然后,它逐漸下降到2003

59、年的8%。</p><p><b>　　三、實(shí)證研究及結(jié)論</b></p><p>　?。ㄒ唬?shù)據(jù)和單位根檢驗(yàn)</p><p>　　本文采用的數(shù)據(jù)是用當(dāng)年人民幣價(jià)格計(jì)算的FDI, DI 和 GDP季度時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于由中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局出版的中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)月報(bào)（1987:1-2004:3）及新中國(guó)50年的綜合和統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)材料和中國(guó)各種統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒。由于

60、缺乏季度和月度本地GDP統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，本季的GDP是在每月工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值(GIO)和每年的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上得到的。</p><p>　　q=1,.......,4 t=1988,1989,........,2003</p><p>　　為了在進(jìn)行協(xié)整分析和模型估計(jì)時(shí)減少季節(jié)性波動(dòng)，在模型中引入了周期性虛擬假設(shè)變量。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的0-1周期虛擬變量將影響變量模型的均值和趨勢(shì)，但主要的

61、周期虛擬變量只影響平均值不影響趨勢(shì)。在本文中運(yùn)用擴(kuò)展的ADF檢驗(yàn)來(lái)檢驗(yàn)FDI, DI 和 GDP這三個(gè)時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性。</p><p>　　從圖4（a-c）可以看出,三個(gè)序列水平是不平穩(wěn)的。因此,我們通過(guò)單位根檢驗(yàn)研究三個(gè)序列在一階差分下的平穩(wěn)性。ADF檢驗(yàn)是在同一水平和一階差分下對(duì)以下三個(gè)模型的估計(jì)觀察進(jìn)行。</p><p><b>　?。?）</b></p

62、><p><b>　?。?）</b></p><p><b>　?。?）</b></p><p>　　ADF檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果見(jiàn)表2。它們表明單位根的0假設(shè)是：（a）接受FDI在三個(gè)模型中的水平序列；（b）拒絕DI在模型（3）中的水平序列；（c）拒絕GDP在模型（1）的水平序列。結(jié)果表明，根據(jù)一階差分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，三個(gè)時(shí)間系列都是平穩(wěn)的。因此，

63、我們得出結(jié)論這三個(gè)時(shí)間序列都成一階矩陣即I（1）。</p><p>　?。ǘ┳兞康膮f(xié)整檢驗(yàn)</p><p>　　現(xiàn)在進(jìn)行的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)時(shí)檢驗(yàn)FDI, DI 和 GDP這三個(gè)變量在任何長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系的協(xié)整。在仔細(xì)的選擇和檢驗(yàn)后，選折一個(gè)由滯后長(zhǎng)度為6、穩(wěn)定的、周期性虛擬變量組成的模型。Johansen的協(xié)整等級(jí)檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果如下表3。其表明存在兩個(gè)分別在1%和5%水平意義的協(xié)整向量（矩陣為零或其秩小于

64、等于2而拒絕零假設(shè)：無(wú)協(xié)整）。這意味著三個(gè)變量FDI, DI 和 GDP之間存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系。</p><p><b>　?。ㄈ┱`差修正模型</b></p><p>　　為了分析FDI, DI 和 GDP這三個(gè)變量間的因果聯(lián)系，選用VAR系統(tǒng)下的誤差修正變量模型（ECM）：本文中的數(shù)據(jù)在這個(gè)變量系統(tǒng)中運(yùn)用得非常好。由結(jié)果可知，沒(méi)有一個(gè)檢驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)量在95%的臨界水平下

65、是有意義的。因此，沒(méi)有任何跡象證明該系統(tǒng)模型是不正確的。根據(jù)Schwarzz（1978）和Akaike（1974）的信息準(zhǔn)則，滯后的長(zhǎng)度被選為6。</p><p>　?。ㄋ模?huì)計(jì)創(chuàng)新和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)</p><p>　　創(chuàng)新會(huì)計(jì)（方差分解和脈沖響應(yīng)功能）技術(shù)可以用來(lái)研究經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的關(guān)系。運(yùn)用這個(gè)檢驗(yàn)方法，Kim and Seo (2003)使用這種技術(shù)研究了韓國(guó)外商直接投資與國(guó)內(nèi)投資的互

66、補(bǔ)或替代關(guān)系，并分析了外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)韓國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。另一方面，預(yù)測(cè)誤差方差分解使得我們作出有關(guān)時(shí)間序列的比例變動(dòng)，這個(gè)比例變動(dòng)是由于系統(tǒng)中變量的自身沖擊受到其他變量的沖擊(Enders, 1995, p. 311)。</p><p>　　這結(jié)果表明，F(xiàn)DI，國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系強(qiáng)度是不同的。FDI 在中國(guó)的作用經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中起著重要，但國(guó)內(nèi)投資的作用較?。ǚ謩e為5.7%和17.6%）。GDP的增長(zhǎng)對(duì)FDI

67、的影響比對(duì)中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)投資的影響要較強(qiáng)（分別為40.8%和3.5%）。國(guó)內(nèi)投資和GDP對(duì)FDI的影響較低（分別為2.4%和1.9%）。但DI與GDP之間的聯(lián)系是比較強(qiáng)勁的，DI/GDP為40.8%，GDP/DI 為17.6%。這表明，這三個(gè)變量解釋了各自過(guò)去的優(yōu)勢(shì)值（預(yù)測(cè)誤差方差）。這意味著，目前/過(guò)去的FDI, DI 和 GDP對(duì)其以后/當(dāng)前的趨勢(shì)有重要影響。</p><p>　　Granger因果檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果表明

68、：（1）DI和GDP對(duì)FDI沒(méi)有顯著的統(tǒng)計(jì)性影響；（2）FDI和GDP對(duì)DI的影響是顯著的；（3） FDI和DI對(duì)GDP的影響是顯著的。因此，F(xiàn)DI影響DI和GDP，反向作用不明顯，GDP和DI間因果聯(lián)系是雙向的。這些研究結(jié)果證實(shí)了方差分解的結(jié)果分析。</p><p>　　接著進(jìn)行脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的動(dòng)態(tài)因果關(guān)系分析，揭示FDI, DI 和 GDP關(guān)系。</p><p><b>　　（

69、五）實(shí)證結(jié)果</b></p><p>　　本文選用誤差修正模型，得出了以下結(jié)論：</p><p>　　1．外國(guó)直接投資在對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)投資的補(bǔ)充作用明顯，外國(guó)直接投資越多，國(guó)內(nèi)投資越大。另外，F(xiàn)DI對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有重大影響。 </p><p>　　2．中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)呈積極正相關(guān)關(guān)系。巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)刺激國(guó)內(nèi)投資的增長(zhǎng)，反之亦然。</p>

70、<p>　　3．在長(zhǎng)期，中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)投資和國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資的流入沒(méi)有太大影響。國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和國(guó)內(nèi)投資之間存在雙向因果關(guān)系，同時(shí)外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)投資和外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值都只是單向因果關(guān)系。 </p><p>　　4．中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響比對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資產(chǎn)生的影響更大。</p><p>　　這些結(jié)論這在某種程度上支持了外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)投資有補(bǔ)充效用而長(zhǎng)期

71、的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與外國(guó)直接投資呈積極正相關(guān)的理論。</p><p><b>　　四、結(jié)論及相關(guān)政策</b></p><p>　　在實(shí)證分析和調(diào)查結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上，我們得出這樣的結(jié)論，外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)投資不具有排擠作用，反而補(bǔ)充帶動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)投資。外國(guó)直接投資不僅幫助克服資金短缺， 它還通過(guò)補(bǔ)充國(guó)內(nèi)投資刺激中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。這項(xiàng)研究的結(jié)果對(duì)中國(guó)和其他地方的政策制定者也有一些重要的政策含義