國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格上漲及其對(duì)人類(lèi)的影響外文翻譯

1、<p>　　中文3324字 1073單詞</p><p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　Increase in Commodity Prices and It’s Impacting on Gender</p><p>　　Material Source: Gender and trade

2、 Author: Parthapratim Pal</p><p>　　International commodity prices are on a major upswing since the last few years. IMF index of crude oil prices (base 2005=100) increased from a value of around 36 in Jan

3、uary 2002 to more than 230 in May 2008. Non-fuel price index (which include food and industrial input price indices) and the ‘Food and Beverages’ price index have also increased quite significantly over the same period (

4、Figure 1). What is notable from the figure is that the current increase has come after a period of low and somet</p><p>　　Closer inspection of international commodity prices data reveal that the current comm

5、odity price boom has been broad based as prices of three major commodity groups—metals, foods, and agricultural raw materials—have been jointly booming since early 2005. A recent IMF study indicates that the current boom

6、 is likely to be sustained. It says: “In sum, the comparison of the current commodity price boom with earlier ones suggests that the current boom has been more broad-based and longer lasting and </p><p>　　A

7、number of factors have contributed to this increase in commodity prices. The increase in fuel prices has been triggered by large increases in demand for fuel from both developed and developing countries. Apart from that,

8、 there are usual suspicions that issues like OPEC not increasing oil production, speculation with oil prices and some countries hoarding oil, may be having an upward pressure on oil prices.</p><p>　　Increase

9、 in fuel prices has led to an increased demand for alternative fuels and as a result, over the past few years, there has been a significant increase in bio-fuel production in the world. According to figures quoted by the

10、 World Bank, global Ethanol production has increased from about 4,500 million Gallons in 2000 to around 13,500 million gallons in 2007. Increase in bio-fuel production has eaten into food-grains production in some countr

11、ies. Coupled with this, poor weather in a number of </p><p>　　To make matters more complicated, commodities have emerged as a new form of speculative asset. Over the past few years, the US financial markets

12、are not performing well. Weakening US dollar, a falling rate of interest and a declining real estate market have made commodities attractive speculative assets. Confluence of these real and speculative factors has led to

13、 the unprecedented increased in commodity prices that we are observing nowadays.</p><p>　　This increase in food and commodity prices can have significant implications for the international economy. There wil

14、l be certain beneficiaries from this increase in commodity prices. For example, World Bank projections indicate that at a regional level, the Middle East and North Africa and, to a somewhat lesser extent, sub-Saharan Afr

15、ica and Latin America may emerge as the main beneficiaries of the current commodity price boom. However, due to increase in food and fuel prices, inflation is up i</p><p>　　World Bank estimate suggests that

16、a doubling of food prices over the last three years could potentially push 100 million people in low-income countries deeper into poverty. Here it is notable that the 2006 edition of the Annual publication of FAO called

17、‘State of Food Insecurity in the World’ shows that for the years 2001-2003, there were more than 854 million undernourished people in developing countries. This figure is approximately about 17 percent of the total popul

18、ation of the developing co</p><p>　　The World Food Program estimates are even more serious. It projects that 130 million people will be pushed to poverty because of the increase in food prices6. It is also s

19、uggested that the increase in food prices will be catastrophic for food and nutrition level of the poor. According to estimates by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), poor people spend around 75 percent

20、 of their income on food products and a 50 percent increases in all food prices across the board (holding inc</p><p>　　One worrying fact is that the increase in food prices is likely to hit hard the women an

21、d children among the poor. In developing countries across the world, the price rise means that less real income to be spent on food. As a result, families are cutting meals and substituting less nutritious foods. For exa

22、mple, they are substituting more expensive foods such as meat, fruit and vegetables by basic staples such as rice or maize A nutritionist for WFP, Thorne-Lyman says that his has serious implic</p><p><b&g

23、t;　　譯文</b></p><p>　　國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格上漲及其對(duì)人類(lèi)的影響</p><p>　　資料來(lái)源: 貿(mào)易與人類(lèi) 作者：Parthapratim Pal</p><p>　　在過(guò)去幾年International commodity prices are on a major upswing since

24、 the last few years.國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了大幅度的攀升。IMF index of crude oil prices (base 2005=100) increased from a value of around 36 in January 2002 to more than 230 in May 2008.國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的原油價(jià)格指數(shù)（基地2005 = 100）從2002年1月的36上升至2008年5月的230以

25、上。 Non-fuel price index (which include food and industrial input price indices) and the 'Food and Beverages' price index have also increased quite significantly over the same period (Figure 1).非燃料價(jià)格指數(shù)（包括食品和工業(yè)投入價(jià)格

26、指數(shù)）以</p><p>　　更緊密的國(guó)際商品價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)檢測(cè)顯示，目前商品價(jià)格高漲是以三個(gè)主要商品類(lèi)別價(jià)格為基礎(chǔ)的，他們分別是金屬、食品和農(nóng)業(yè)原材料，三者在2005年初就已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)的高度相關(guān)。A recent IMF study indicates that the current boom is likely to be sustained.國(guó)際貨幣基金組織最近的研究表明，目前國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格的高增長(zhǎng)很可能持

27、續(xù)下去?！盜t says: “In sum, the comparison of the current commodity price boom with earlier ones suggests that the current boom has been more broad-based and longer lasting and that prices have risen by more than usual.” (IMF

28、 2008, pp 9) 2 .總之，與先前的商品價(jià)格上漲比較顯示，目前的繁榮已經(jīng)更加廣泛和更持久，價(jià)格已經(jīng)上漲了已經(jīng)超過(guò)了往年?！保▏?guó)際貨幣基金組織2008年，第9頁(yè)） 2</p><p>　　A number of factors have contributed to this increase in commodity prices.有許多因素促成了這種商品價(jià)格的上漲。 The increase in f

29、uel prices has been triggered by large increases in demand for fuel from both developed and developing countries.發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家對(duì)燃料的需求大幅增加導(dǎo)致了燃料價(jià)格的暴漲。 Apart from that, there are usual suspicions that issues like OPEC not incre

30、asing oil production, speculation with oil prices and some countries hoarding oil, may be having an upward pressure on oil prices.此外，最普遍的猜測(cè)像歐佩克不增加石油產(chǎn)量，石油價(jià)格的投機(jī)和一些國(guó)家的石油囤積行為</p><p>　　Increase in fuel prices has

31、 led to an increased demand for alternative fuels and as a result, over the past few years, there has been a significant increase in bio-fuel production in the world.燃油價(jià)格的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致了對(duì)替代燃料需求的增加，因此，在過(guò)去數(shù)年，全球的生物燃料產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了非常顯著的增長(zhǎng)。

32、 According to figures quoted by the World Bank, global Ethanol production has increased from about 4,500 million Gallons in 2000 to around 13,500 million gallons in 2007.根據(jù)世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球乙醇產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)從2000年的4500萬(wàn)加侖，上升到2007年的約13,50

33、0萬(wàn)加侖。 在一些國(guó)家，Increase in biofuel p</p><p>　　To make matters more complicated, commodities have emerged as a new form of speculative asset.更復(fù)雜的問(wèn)題是，大宗商品已成為投機(jī)性資產(chǎn)的新形式。 Over the past few years, the US financial ma

34、rkets are not performing well.在過(guò)去的幾年中，美國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)效果不理想。 Weakening US dollar, a falling rate of interest and a declining real estate market have made commodities attractive speculative assets 4 .美元轉(zhuǎn)弱，利率的持續(xù)下跌以及房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的不景氣已經(jīng)吸引了投機(jī)性

35、資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向大宗商品。 Confluence of these real and speculative factors has led to the unprecedented increased in commodity price</p><p>　　食品和大宗商品價(jià)格的增長(zhǎng)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)有非同尋常的警示作用。不可否認(rèn)，This increase in food and commodity prices can h

36、ave significant implications for the international economy.將有一批人從大宗商品價(jià)格的上漲中受益。For example, World Bank projections indicate that at a regional level, the Middle East and North Africa and, to a somewhat lesser extent, sub-

37、Saharan Africa and Latin America may emerge as the main beneficiaries of the current commodity price boom.例如，世界銀行的預(yù)測(cè)表明，在區(qū)域一級(jí)，中東和北非，在有些較小的程度上，撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲可能成為當(dāng)前商品價(jià)格高漲的主要受益者。 However, due to increase i</p><p>

38、　　World Bank estimate suggests that a doubling of food prices over the last three years could potentially push 100 million people in low-income countries deeper into poverty.世界銀行的估計(jì)表明，食品價(jià)格在過(guò)去三年翻了一番，這可能潛在地使1億低收入者陷入貧困。Here

39、 it is notable that the 2006 edition of the Annual publication of FAO called 'State of Food Insecurity in the World' shows that for the years 2001-2003, there were more than 854 million undernourished people in d

40、eveloping countries.這里值得注意的是，糧農(nóng)組織2006年出版的年度出版物'世界糧食危機(jī)'顯示，在2001-2003年，發(fā)</p><p>　　The World Food Programme estimates are even more grim.世界糧食計(jì)劃署的估計(jì)更為嚴(yán)峻。它It projects that 130 million people will be pushe

41、d to poverty because of the increase in food prices 6 .預(yù)測(cè)將有1.3億人因?yàn)槭称穬r(jià)格上漲而致貧。It is also suggested that the increase in food prices will be catastrophic for food and nutrition level of the poor.它還暗示，食品價(jià)格上漲將對(duì)于窮人的食品和營(yíng)養(yǎng)水平來(lái)說(shuō)是災(zāi)

42、難性的。According to estimates by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), poor people spend around 75 percent of their income on food products and a 50</p><p>　　One worrying fact is that the increa

43、se in food prices is likely to hit hard the women and children among the poor.一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的事實(shí)是，食品價(jià)格上漲可能使窮人當(dāng)中的婦女和兒童遭受更大的打擊。 In developing countries across the world, the price rise means that less real income to be spent on foo

44、d.在世界各地的發(fā)展中國(guó)家，物價(jià)上漲意味著實(shí)際收入所能購(gòu)買(mǎi)的食品數(shù)量的減少。 As a result, families are cutting meals and substituting less nutritious foods.因此，很多家庭減少了肉類(lèi)的購(gòu)買(mǎi)取而代之的是一些低營(yíng)養(yǎng)的實(shí)物。 For example, they are substituting more expensive foods such as meat, f

45、ruit and vegetables by b</p><p>　　To make matters worse, the crisis is showing no signs of abetting.更糟糕的是，這場(chǎng)危機(jī)顯示教唆的跡象。 一些主要機(jī)構(gòu)Forecasts by major organizations (OECD, FAO, USDA and the World Bank) tend to sugg

46、est that food prices are expected to remain high in 2008 and 2009.組織（經(jīng)合組織，糧農(nóng)組織，美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部和世界銀行）的預(yù)測(cè)表明，糧食價(jià)格將在2008年和2009年保持高位。If there is adequate supply response and some reduction in demand, then the food prices may begin to d

47、ecline from their peaks but these prices are likely to remain generally high till 2015.如果出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)充足和需求稍減的情況，那么，</p><p>　　Increased demand for biofuel production may become another possible threat to the small fa

48、rmers of the developing and least developed countries.對(duì)生物燃料生產(chǎn)的需求的增加對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家和最不發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的農(nóng)民來(lái)說(shuō)可能成為另一種可能的威脅。Increased petroleum prices may lead to an increase in global demand for biofuels.石油價(jià)格的上升可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球范圍內(nèi)對(duì)生物燃料需求的增加。World Bank da

49、ta show that a quarter of the US maize crop (11 percent of the global crop) went into biofuel production this year, and the US supplies more than 60 percent of world maize exports.世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，</p><p>　　總之，接下來(lái)的

50、幾年對(duì)社會(huì)中的弱勢(shì)群體來(lái)說(shuō)將會(huì)是異常艱難的日子。當(dāng)前價(jià)格的上漲已經(jīng)使物價(jià)水平達(dá)到了其歷史最高位，預(yù)計(jì)高物價(jià)水平將會(huì)持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。還有其他一些因素使物價(jià)上漲更具危害。首先，按照一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的說(shuō)法是，這是一次認(rèn)為的危機(jī)。對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期忽視改變了全球農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和產(chǎn)品模式，這些因素極大的打擊了農(nóng)民的生產(chǎn)積極性。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易壁壘和農(nóng)業(yè)補(bǔ)貼已經(jīng)使許多發(fā)展中國(guó)家的農(nóng)民喪失了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。供應(yīng)和物價(jià)的高度相關(guān)性已經(jīng)是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)。早在2005年糧農(nóng)組織就已

51、經(jīng)在其糧農(nóng)組織進(jìn)口激增項(xiàng)目中發(fā)表了一系列文章。文章表明發(fā)展中國(guó)家在加入WTO后農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量激增。同一項(xiàng)目下，夏爾馬在2005年寫(xiě)的文章中列出了一些關(guān)于進(jìn)口激增對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的負(fù)面影響的研究案例。如，他指出了海地和洪都拉斯兩國(guó)均受到了因進(jìn)口激增而導(dǎo)致對(duì)水稻生產(chǎn)的永久性的損害。據(jù)夏爾馬的理論，這種情況被稱(chēng)為“實(shí)質(zhì)阻礙”，它使進(jìn)口阻止了該的行業(yè)復(fù)蘇。值得注意的是，這些案例讓人們可以假設(shè)，如果一旦出現(xiàn)價(jià)格上漲，供應(yīng)將不會(huì)反映。如果發(fā)生這種情況，商品