外文翻譯--巴西旅游業(yè)的動(dòng)態(tài)分析挑戰(zhàn)和建議

1、<p><b>　　中文3310字</b></p><p><b>　　原 文:</b></p><p>　　An analysis of the dynamics of the tourism industry in Brazil：challenges and recommendations </p><p&g

2、t;　　出 處： International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management </p><p>　　作 者： Filipe Sobral,Alketa Peci,Gustavo Souza </p><p><b&g

3、t;　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　Purpose – The main purpose of this study is to present an analysis of the dynamics of the tourism market in South America and, more specifically, in Brazil, by measuring and a

4、nalyzing the growth in tourists’ arrivals to the region between 1998 and 2002.</p><p>　　Design/methodology/approach – This study uses the shift-share technique that decomposes the growth of the number of tou

5、rists into various components, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period.</p><p>　　Findings – Despite the fact that Brazil is the leading tourist destination in South America, t

6、he study shows that Brazil has been losing ground in relation to some of its neighbors in South America. The study also revealed the impact of 9/11 and Argentina’s crises and the growing participation of the European tou

7、rist in Brazil.</p><p>　　Originality/value – Despite some limitations, this technique has the advantage of focusing on a region scarcely studied in mainstream tourism researches and offering Brazilian policy

8、-makers a new methodology such that they may take advantage of emerging opportunities and create competitive advantages for the country.</p><p>　　Keywords :Tourism, Public policy, Brazil, South America</p

9、><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　Tourism is a sector experiencing major growth in terms of the global economy. Ever since the 1950s when international travel became accessible to the public in general,

10、 the number of tourists has been growing at an average rate of 6.8 percent per year. Estimates are that in 2005 the number of incoming tourists totaled 808 million. The trends for the future of the tourism industry indic

11、ate that by 2020 the number of incoming international tourists will be in the order of 1.6 billion (World Touris</p><p>　　In view of the importance of the tourism sector, this study seeks to contribute with

12、another potentially useful technical analysis tool for evaluating the sector. The objective is to provide policy makers in Brazil with a systematic approach towards managing their tourism efforts and activities. The arti

13、cle concludes with a series of recommendations for public policies in the area of tourism based on the discussion of results of the model integrated with the results of other studies and research</p><p>　　Th

14、e tourism industry in South America</p><p>　　In terms of economic impact, tourism is a recent phenomenon in South America. With the exception of the 1960-1970 decade, the growth of tourism on the American co

15、ntinent (North, Central and South America) was always below the world average(World Tourism Organization, 2005). Factors such as the great distance from the major tourist-generating markets, the timidity of the regional

16、economies, as well as the prolonged economic recessions, had a negative impact on the development of regional and intr</p><p>　　Only in the 1990s South America emerged as a potential tourism destination, wit

17、h Brazil, Argentina and Chile as the main players in the region. Factors like the transition to democracy, the consolidation of economic blocks, the growth of commerce with the major world markets and the improvement of

18、basic public services, contributed positively to the development of tourism in the region. In conjunction with this the opening up of the markets and massive investments in infrastructure facilitated t</p><p&g

19、t;　　Even though the growth in the Americas has followed the worldwide trend, tourism has an unrealized growth potential in the majority of South American countries. Only recently some countries have adopted tourism as a

20、strategic alternative. In accordance with projections of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) for 2006, it is expected that US$163,362 billion will be generated in economic activity (total demand)by the tourism in

21、dustry. An impact of 7.2 percent on the GDP of Latin American co</p><p>　　The tourism industry in Brazil</p><p>　　With respect to Brazil, it is possible to affirm that tourism is a relatively im

22、portant economic activity, with great future growth potential. The contribution to GDP of the tourism industry in Brazil is estimated at 2.8 percent for 2006 (US$25.3 billion),increasing in nominal terms to US$ 36 billio

23、n (2.7 percent of GDP) by 2016 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). The importance of the tourism sector in Brazil becomes more apparent when one evaluates its social impact, especially in genera</p><p>

24、;　　Despite the fact that Brazil is the largest Latin American country with incomparable cultural and ecological exuberance and diversity, both the public and private sectors have underestimated tourism. The analysis of h

25、istorical data on tourism in Brazil shows that it was only in the middle of the 1990s that the tourism industry really took off. The year 2000 saw the highest number ever recorded in terms of tourist arrivals in the coun

26、try with 5.3 million international arrivals.</p><p>　　For Brazil, Argentina is the main source of incoming tourists with 922,484 tourists,followed by the USA (705,997), Portugal (336,988), Uruguay (309,732),

27、 Germany(294,989), Italy (276,563) and France (224,160) (Embratur, 2005a, b). Due to the economic crisis that Argentina suffered in 2002, its participation in the influx of tourists to Brazil fell from 32.8 percent in 20

28、00 to 19.24 percent in 2004. However, the country is still in top place among the main tourist groupings entering Brazil. With </p><p>　　Research conducted into the image of the country abroad confirms the f

29、act that the attraction of Brazil as a tourist destination is based on its natural beauty and exoticism,though the negative perceptions regarding social and economic conditions of the country, as well as the lack of secu

30、rity, coexist with this positive image. However,research indicated that the respondents do not have a good perception regarding the social and economic conditions of the country and, furthermore, are worried ab</p>

31、<p><b>　　The study</b></p><p>　　This study uses a version of the shift-share technique, developed by Esteban-Marquillas (1972), to examine the characteristics and dynamics of the tourism i

32、ndustry in South America. The purpose is to measure and analyze the growth in tourists arrivals to South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay e Venezuela) from three diffe

33、rent regions of the world (Europe, Americas and residual region which includes Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South Pacif</p><p>　　The selected countries in South America were chosen to compose the benchm

34、ark because they share some significant similarities in terms of potential attractiveness and image. Thus, each country’s performance can be compared to the collective performance of the benchmark. The data for tourist a

35、rrivals are compiled from the Statistical Yearbook, published by the Statistical Division of the United Nations Department of Economical and Social Affairs (United Nations, 2005).</p><p><b>　　Results&l

36、t;/b></p><p>　　The main results of the study are the following:</p><p>　　Brazil is the country that receives the highest number of international tourists in South America (over 30 percent), f

37、ollowed by Argentina (approximately 20 percent), Uruguay (11 percent) and Chile (11 percent).</p><p>　　As for the tourist-generating countries to South America, the Americas (over 70 percent) and Europe (23

38、percent) continue to be the leading tourist exporters.</p><p>　　Between 1998 and 2002 there was a marked reduction in the number of international tourists, representing a drop of over 18 percent in the numbe

39、r of tourist arrivals to South America, mainly because the 9/11 and the political and economic instability of some of the countries in the region, especially Argentina,Colombia and Venezuela.</p><p>　　Despit

40、e the global decrease of incoming tourists to South America, the number of European tourists increased during the period under consideration (5 percent).</p><p>　　With respect to Brazil, its global performan

41、ce fell well below expectations and it lost market share, losing more than a 1 million tourists (221.5 percent).</p><p>　　The foregoing analysis made it clear that this reduction was due to a weak performanc

42、e in the Americas, which was partly offset by a good performance from Europe.</p><p>　　The results indicate that the number of European tourists visiting Brazil increased by 235,503 (an increase of more than

43、 20 percent). According to the analysis, Brazil enjoys a competitive advantage in attracting European tourist and it is specialized in this region.</p><p>　　The results also revealed a marked reduction of mo

44、re than 1.2 million tourists from the Americas to Brazil, which can be explained due to: crisis in the main tourist-generating countries like the US (9/11) and Argentina (economic crisis); a competitive disadvantage in a

45、ttracting American tourists; and a non-specialization in this market.</p><p>　　Ecuador (28.1 percent) and Peru (18.3 percent) were the only two South American countries that increased the number of tourist a

46、rrivals during the period. These countries present competitive advantages in relation to the remaining countries of South America in terms of attracting tourists.</p><p>　　Argentina also had a good performan

47、ce, despite a slight decrease in the number of international tourists (25 percent), though compared to the global growth rate of the benchmark (218.2 percent) this can still be seen as a highly positive result.Argentina

48、possesses a strong competitive advantage in attracting American tourists and a competitive disadvantage in the European market.</p><p>　　Bolivia, Chile, Colombia and Paraguay produced a consistent performanc

49、e in terms of the market share they possess. Of these countries, Chile has a disadvantage in the only region in which it is specialized (the Americas) and advantages in the regions in which it is not specialized.</p&g

50、t;<p>　　Uruguay (241.7 percent), Venezuela (237 percent) are the countries that performed worst, posting a decline in the growth rate of more than double the reduction of the benchmark (218 percent). Both of them

51、had competitive disadvantages in attracting tourists from all regions.</p><p>　　Conclusions and recommendations</p><p>　　Tourism is a strategic sector for Brazilian development as it offers oppo

52、rtunities to be seized, while at the same time presents challenges to policy-makers in terms of adequate conception and implementation of tourism strategies. The results of this study enable the following conclusions abo

53、ut the Brazilian case.</p><p>　　Firstly, the study corroborated the evidence that the stage of development of the tourism sector is closely linked to the degree of socio-economic development of the country.

54、It is no coincidence that the major economic players in South America(Brazil, Argentina and Chile) are also the main host countries for tourists in the region. However, the situation is problematic, particularly in Brazi

55、l, due to the difficulty in attracting private investments in infrastructure sectors. The situation is ev</p><p>　　Secondly, the study revealed the impact of 9/11 and Argentina’s crises in the growth rates f

56、or the sector. The impact was felt more strongly in Brazil since the country still has a strong dependency on tourism from the Americas. However, the study showed that when compared with the superior performance of other

57、 South American countries,Brazil faces strong competition, specifically from Argentina.</p><p>　　Thirdly, research of the image of Brazil abroad highlights the existence of a negative perception about the so

58、cial and economic conditions, as well as the lack of security, though this perception does not prevail for countries like Argentina. This image factor, associated with others such as the high cost of domestic transport a

59、nd the inability to distinguish what makes Brazil different in relation to other Spanish-speaking countries may have an influence on the competitive disadvantage of Brazi</p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b>&l

60、t;/p><p>　　巴西旅游業(yè)的動(dòng)態(tài)分析：挑戰(zhàn)和建議</p><p><b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　目的——本研究的主要目的是通過測量和分析巴西地區(qū)游客在1998年至2002年間的增長提交南美旅游市場的動(dòng)態(tài)分析。</p><p>　　設(shè)計(jì)/方法論/方式——本研究采用移位共享技術(shù)，將游客數(shù)量的增長分解為不同的

61、構(gòu)成，從而深入分析不同區(qū)域間的動(dòng)態(tài)分析。</p><p>　　結(jié)果——盡管巴西是南美洲的主要旅游目的地，但研究顯示巴西已經(jīng)失去有關(guān)南美鄰國的部分市場。研究還顯示了911、阿根廷危機(jī)和歐洲游客參與的增長對(duì)巴西的影響。</p><p>　　獨(dú)創(chuàng)性/價(jià)值——盡管遇到一些限制，但這種技術(shù)具有集中在一個(gè)地區(qū)主流旅游產(chǎn)品的研究的優(yōu)勢，為巴西的政策制定者提供了新的方法論使他們可以利用正在出現(xiàn)的機(jī)會(huì)，并為

62、國家創(chuàng)造競爭優(yōu)勢。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：旅游，公共政策，巴西，南美洲</p><p><b>　　簡介</b></p><p>　　旅游業(yè)是一個(gè)經(jīng)歷了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長期的行業(yè)。自從20世紀(jì)50年代，國際旅游為公眾所普遍接受時(shí)，游客人數(shù)以每年平均增長率為百分之6.8的速度增長。據(jù)估計(jì)，在2005年來港旅客總數(shù)達(dá)8.08億。旅游業(yè)的未來發(fā)展趨勢

63、表明，到2020年國際旅游的收入將達(dá)到1.6億美元（世界旅游組織，2006）。據(jù)世界旅行及旅游理事會(huì)預(yù)期2006年旅游業(yè)將貢獻(xiàn)全球GDP的百分之3.6（世界旅游及旅行理事會(huì)，2006）。</p><p>　　從旅游部門的重要性來看，本研究的目的，是與另一個(gè)實(shí)用的技術(shù)分析工具一起做貢獻(xiàn)，以評(píng)估各部門。其目的是為巴西的決策者提供一個(gè)管理他們旅游工作和活動(dòng)的系統(tǒng)的方法。文章最后提出了一系列政策，供市民在旅游業(yè)方面對(duì)綜合

64、其他研究成果為基礎(chǔ)的模型結(jié)果進(jìn)行討論。</p><p><b>　　南美洲旅游業(yè)</b></p><p>　　從經(jīng)濟(jì)影響而言，旅游業(yè)是南美洲的一個(gè)新現(xiàn)象。在1960年至1970年這特殊的十年，旅游業(yè)在美洲大陸（北美，中美和南美）的增長一直低于世界平均水平（世界旅游組織，2005）。如主要旅游市場的巨大差距，對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的膽怯，以及長期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退等因素，都對(duì)區(qū)域間和區(qū)域內(nèi)

65、的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響（桑塔納，2000）。</p><p>　　只有在20世紀(jì)90年代，南美成為一個(gè)潛在的旅游目的地與巴西，阿根廷和智利一起作為該地區(qū)的主要參與者。如向民主過渡，鞏固經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)塊，與全球主要市場的貿(mào)易增長和基礎(chǔ)公共服務(wù)的改善等因素，為積極推動(dòng)旅游業(yè)在該地區(qū)的發(fā)展作做出了貢獻(xiàn)。與此相開放的市場和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的大規(guī)模投資增加了南美洲傳統(tǒng)和非傳統(tǒng)旅游目的地的客流量（Gouvea，2004:桑塔納，2000）。&l

66、t;/p><p>　　即使美洲的增長遵循了全球趨勢，旅游業(yè)也存在在南美大多數(shù)國家都未實(shí)現(xiàn)的增長潛力。直到最近一些國家采用了一種旅游戰(zhàn)略選擇。按照世界旅游及旅行理事會(huì)（WTTC）對(duì)2006年的預(yù)測，有16332億美元將在經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中（總需求）由旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生。預(yù)計(jì)將影響拉美國家國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的百分之7.2，以及12.1個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)的產(chǎn)生，即總額的百分之6.9（世界旅游及旅行理事會(huì)，2006）。</p><p

67、><b>　　巴西旅游業(yè)</b></p><p>　　關(guān)于巴西，可以肯定的是旅游業(yè)是一個(gè)在未來具有很大增長潛力的重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。2006年巴西旅游業(yè)的GDP貢獻(xiàn)預(yù)計(jì)為2.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（253億美元），2016年名義增加360億美元（國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的百分之2.7）（世界旅游及旅行理事會(huì)，2006）。當(dāng)評(píng)估其社會(huì)影響，特別是在創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)方面時(shí)，旅游部門在巴西的重要性變得更加明顯。就勞動(dòng)和就業(yè)

68、部估計(jì)顯示，在2003/2005年的三年期間，旅游業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生了56萬新的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)（Embratur,2006）。2006年，對(duì)旅游業(yè)所產(chǎn)生的就業(yè)崗位總數(shù)估計(jì)是550萬，換句話說，是所有工作崗位總數(shù)的百分之6.4。到2016年，總額應(yīng)達(dá)到約900萬就業(yè)崗位，相當(dāng)于總數(shù)的百分之6.6（世界旅游及旅行理事會(huì)，2006）。</p><p>　　盡管巴西是拉丁美洲最大的具有無可匹敵的文化和生態(tài)活力多樣性的國家，但公共

69、和私營部門都低估了旅游業(yè)。巴西旅游業(yè)的歷史數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，只有在20世紀(jì)90年代中期，旅游業(yè)才真正起飛。2000年看到了有史以來的最高的國內(nèi)方面訪港旅客與530萬國際旅客的數(shù)字記錄。巴西、阿根廷是922484名游客的主要涌入的地區(qū)，其次是美國（705997）、葡萄牙（336988）、烏拉圭（309732）、德國（294989）、意大利（276563）和法國（224160）（Embratur，2005a，b）。由于阿根廷在2002年遭受經(jīng)濟(jì)

70、危機(jī)，巴西的游客參與涌入的百分比由2000年的百分之32.8下降到2004年的百分之19.4。然而，無論如何該國在進(jìn)入巴西的各主要旅游集團(tuán)中仍處于領(lǐng)先地位。在人均費(fèi)用/日方面，國際游客的平均消費(fèi)是87.99美元，逗留的平均時(shí)間是13.5天（Embratur，2005a，b）。</p><p>　　研究進(jìn)行到該國的海外形象時(shí)證明了一個(gè)事實(shí)，巴西作為旅游目的地的吸引力是建立在它的自然風(fēng)光和異國情調(diào)上的，雖然對(duì)該國的社

71、會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)條件和安全的缺乏存在著負(fù)面看法，但也有與此并存的正面形象。然而，研究表明，受訪者對(duì)該國的社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)條件沒有良好的認(rèn)知，此外，還擔(dān)心訪問該國時(shí)的安全問題（雷森德-帕克等人，2003）。</p><p><b>　　研究</b></p><p>　　本研究采用由Esteban-Marquillas(1972)發(fā)展的移位共享技術(shù)來研究南美洲旅游業(yè)的特點(diǎn)和動(dòng)態(tài)，其目的

72、是測量和分析1988到2002年間從世界三個(gè)不同地區(qū)（歐洲、美洲和包括亞洲、非洲、中東和南太平洋在內(nèi)的剩余地區(qū)）到南美洲（阿根廷、玻利維亞、巴西、智利、哥倫比亞、厄瓜多爾、巴拉圭、秘魯、烏拉圭、委內(nèi)瑞拉）旅游的游客增長量。這種移位共享技術(shù)把游客數(shù)量的增長分解成各種因素以便能夠解釋它的特性、深入診斷在此期間的行業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)</p><p>　　南美洲的一些國家被選定組成參考標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，因?yàn)樗鼈冊(cè)跐撛谖托蜗蠓矫娲嬖谥嗨菩?/p>

73、。因此，每個(gè)國家的表現(xiàn)可以參照參考標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。入境游客的數(shù)據(jù)是從由聯(lián)合國新聞部的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)事務(wù)統(tǒng)計(jì)司出版的統(tǒng)計(jì)年報(bào)上收集的（聯(lián)合國，2005）。</p><p><b>　　結(jié)果</b></p><p>　　這項(xiàng)研究的主要結(jié)果如下：</p><p>　　巴西是南美洲接受國際游客數(shù)量最高的國家（百分之30以上），其次是阿根廷（約百分之20），烏拉圭（百

74、分之11）和智利（百分之11）。</p><p>　　就游客來源國到南美這方面，美洲（超過百分之70）和歐洲（百分之23）繼續(xù)成為領(lǐng)先的旅游出口國。</p><p>　　從1998年到2002年國際游客數(shù)量顯著減少，表現(xiàn)為到南美洲的游客數(shù)量下降了百分之18以上，主要是因?yàn)?11事件和一些國家政治經(jīng)濟(jì)的不穩(wěn)定，尤其是阿根廷，哥倫比亞和委內(nèi)瑞拉。</p><p>　　盡

75、管全球到南美洲的入境旅客減少了，但歐洲游客人數(shù)在這段期間增加了（百分之5）。</p><p>　　巴西的整體性能遠(yuǎn)低于預(yù)期，失去了市場份額，失去了超過100萬的游客（百分之221.5）。</p><p>　　上述分析清楚地表明了這種減少是由于歐洲良好的業(yè)績部分抵消了美洲的表現(xiàn)疲弱。</p><p>　　結(jié)果表明，訪問巴西的歐洲游客人數(shù)增加了235503（百分之20以

76、上的增加）。據(jù)分析，巴西在這一地區(qū)擁有專門吸引歐洲游客的競爭優(yōu)勢。</p><p>　　調(diào)查結(jié)果還顯示從美洲到巴西的游客明顯減少超過120萬，這可以解釋為：主要游客來源國的危機(jī)，如美國（911）和阿根廷（經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)）；吸引美國游客的競爭優(yōu)勢；以及市場的非專業(yè)化。</p><p>　　厄瓜多爾（百分之28.1）和秘魯（百分之18.3）是僅有的兩個(gè)在此期間游客訪問量增加的南美國家。這兩個(gè)國家目前

77、比南美其余國家在吸引游客方面有競爭優(yōu)勢。</p><p>　　阿根廷也有不錯(cuò)的表現(xiàn)，盡管國際游客的數(shù)量略有下降（百分之25），即使與全球增長率相比較仍然可以被視為一個(gè)非常積極的結(jié)果。阿根廷在吸引美國游客方面有競爭優(yōu)勢，但在歐洲市場有競爭劣勢。</p><p>　　玻利維亞，智利，哥倫比亞和巴拉圭在經(jīng)營市場份額方面有穩(wěn)定的業(yè)績。在這些國家中，智利在專門的地區(qū)（美洲）有劣勢，在其他地區(qū)有優(yōu)勢。

78、</p><p>　　烏拉圭（百分之241.7），委內(nèi)瑞拉（百分之237）是表現(xiàn)最差的國家，以超過降低基準(zhǔn)一倍的增長速度下降（百分之218）。他們?cè)谖慰头矫娑即嬖诟偁幜觿荨?lt;/p><p><b>　　結(jié)論和建議</b></p><p>　　旅游業(yè)是巴西發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略部門，因?yàn)樗峁┑臋C(jī)會(huì)被沒收，同時(shí)給政策制定者在旅游戰(zhàn)略的構(gòu)想和實(shí)施方面提出了

79、挑戰(zhàn)。本研究可對(duì)巴西的情況作以下結(jié)論。</p><p>　　首先，研究的證據(jù)證實(shí)了旅游部門的發(fā)展階段是和國家的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度緊密相連的。這并非巧合，南美洲的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)主體同時(shí)也是該地區(qū)游客的主要東道國。不過，這種情況是有問題的，特別是在巴西，因?yàn)榛A(chǔ)設(shè)施部門在吸引私人投資方面有難度。鑒于像智利這種國家在吸引基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面的投資時(shí)，在中期和長期顯示出較高的競爭力方面的潛力，這種情況相對(duì)來說更成問題。</p>

80、;<p>　　其次，該研究揭示了911和阿根廷危機(jī)對(duì)旅游行業(yè)增長率的影響。有人認(rèn)為這種影響更為強(qiáng)烈，因?yàn)榘臀鲊覍?duì)美洲旅游業(yè)的仍有強(qiáng)勁的依賴。不過，研究表明，當(dāng)與性能優(yōu)越的其他南美國家相比時(shí)，巴西面臨激烈的競爭，尤其是來自阿根廷的。</p><p>　　第三，研究巴西在國外的形象時(shí)，存在突出的對(duì)社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況以及缺乏安全的消極看法，但這種看法在阿根廷這樣的國家并不占上風(fēng)。這種形象因素，與他人無關(guān)，如