負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)估算法的研究及負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)的開(kāi)發(fā).pdf

1、V】0“005o工學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)估算法的研究及負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)的開(kāi)發(fā)馬俊國(guó)二oo七年三月謦一太卅痧：電嘶甜≯∞莽mNAbstractLoadForecastingisoneofimportantcontentsofpowersystemoperatinganddispatching，andisanimportantcomposingpartofEnergyManagementSystem(EMS)Theaccurateforeca

2、stingresultscallenhancethereliabilityandtheeconomyofthesystematicoperatingInthepaperitsummarizesthedevelopmentoftheforecastingtheoriesandmethods，andintroducestwodirectionsofstudyinthefield：thestudyoftheforecastingmodelsa

3、ndthestudyoftheloadregularityitselfInordertoeffectivelyidentifytheanomalouspointleadedtobytheirregulardataofthehistoricaldata，anewwaytoidentifyandtomodifytheanomalousdataisproposedinthepaperbasingonDiscreteFourierTransfo

4、rm，whichprovidesabetterdatabasisforapplicationsottwareofpowersystemloadforecastingOnthebasisofthesysteminfooftheloadregularityevaluation，itintroducesthemethodofloadregularityevaluationinthepaperwhichimprovescognitiontoth

5、eload刪arityBasingonthetheory，theimplementationandapplicationoftheevaluationalgorithmisemphasizedonInthemeanwhile，itproposesamethodthatwouldfurtherloosentheinequalityrestrictiononcombinedforecastingmodelInordertogetmoreac

6、curateforecastingresults，itadoptsthevirtualforecastingpolicyandadvantageouslyembracesthemeritsofmanyexistingmodelsAccordingtotheactualneedoftheloadforecasting，asetofforecastingandevaluationsystemisdeveloped，whichisapplie