基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的進度風(fēng)險貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)研究.pdf

1、基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的進度風(fēng)險貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的進度風(fēng)險貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)研究研究ThestudyonSystemdynamicbasedBayesianwksfconstructionschedulerisk學(xué)科專業(yè)：工程管理研究生：閆佳路指導(dǎo)教師：劉俊穎副教授天津大學(xué)管理與經(jīng)濟學(xué)部二零一三年十二月ABSTRACTConstructionprojectsarecomprehensivesocialactivitieswithlargeinv

2、estmentlongtimehightechnicalrequirementscomplexsystemtherearemanyuncertainfactsineachaspect.Effectiveriskmanagementcanreduceuncertaintiesensuretheprojectimplementedsmoothly.Theceofriskmanagementisriskidentificationriskas

3、sessmentanalysis.Onlytakingthecrectrecognitionevaluationappropriatemeanscanbetopreventcontrolrisks.ManyscholarshavemademanystudiestoidentifyconstructionprojectrisksthecommonmethodsincludetheDelphimethodbrainstmingmethode

4、xpertinterviewmethodrisklistetc..Howeverthesemethodsareusuallylackofsystematicnesspertinenceriskfactsidentifiedbythesemethodsareindependentwitheachotherwhichisnotaccdingwiththeengineeringpractice.Inadditionriskmanagement

5、isanimptantpartofenterpriseprojectmanagementitscostsattributedeterminesthatriskmanagementmustseekutilitymaximizationwithinlimitedresources.Itisnecessarytoundersttheactionmechanismofriskfactsthusriskmanagementcanbemetarge

6、ted.Someresearchershavediscussedthemutualinfluencebetweenriskfactseffectsbybuildingsimulationmodels.Theyfindthatriskfactsarenotcompletelyindependenttheireffectsontheprojectcannotbeaddedsimply.Buttheseresearchesarejustatt

7、hebeginningdeeplystudiesmustbetakeninthefuture.Scheduleriskisoneofthemostcommonriskinconstructionprojectsrelatescloselytotheprojectqualitycosttakesaveryimptantroletotheproject.Thispaperwillidentifyanalysisthefactswhichca

8、ninfluencetheprojectschedulesystematicallyexpletheinfluencemechanismthesefactsmadetothescheduleriskthenbuildsystemdynamicbasedBayesianwkstoreflectriskeventstheaffectedactivitiesmeasuretheriskprobabilityaccuratelysothatca

9、nprovidesupptstoriskmanagementdecision.Thisstudywillalsodevelopthetheyofriskmanagementhasstrongtheeticalvaluepracticalsignificance.Duringtheresearchprocessliteratureanalysishasbeentakenfirstlytoidentifytherelatedfactsaff