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1、Crisis, Contagion and Bailouts: What's Next for the European Union?European financial officials finally got out in front of swiftmoving market developments on May 10th by launching a huge $960 billion (750 billion eu
2、ro) financial stabilization plan -- exceeding most expectations -- to bail out Greece and ensure the viability of the European Monetary Union, at least for now. Some observers say the move prevented a potential financial
3、 meltdown in which concerns over sovereign debt defaults would have swiftly led to large-scale bank runs in some European countries.Many experts this week expected the package to continue to calm markets -- at least temp
4、orarily -- by guaranteeing most sovereign (and some private) debt in Greece.or by providing credit for other troubled member economies in the future, including Portugal, Spain and Ireland. The bailout -- which also inclu
5、des some bilateral loan agreements, U.S. funds and dollar swap agreements through the Federal Reserve had the immediate effect of sweeping away fears of a possible collapse of the Eurozone's financial system. Such an
6、 outcome would have set off a new round of recession in Europe and might have dragged the world financial system back to the depths reached 12 to 18 months ago or worse.Some critics still view the overall stabilization p
7、ackage, which left many details vague, as a short-term fix that ultimately will fail to address deep public and private debt levels, pressing fiscal deficits and persistent internal and external trade imbalances. One exp
8、lanation for why Europe's financial authorities did not act sooner to avert potential disaster: The leading player in any stabilization measure is Germany, because of the size and strength of its economy. But Germany
9、 was caught up in regional elections in North-Rhine Westphalia that were critical to the future of Angela political. So this is not just about economics. It is also about politics criteria having to do with budget defici
10、ts and having to do with the way in which you are making sure your country can remain competitive after you have essentially given away a very important policy option in your toolkit, which is to devalue your currency. I
11、n other words, you are surrendering your sovereignty in terms of your currency, which means that when you are in hard times, you cannot devalue in order to become more competitive. But at the same time, the architects of
12、 this monetary union 10 years ago didn't think about what should be done in case one or more countries actually get into trouble. They didn't think about what kinds of institutional arrangement and decision-makin
13、g procedure should be in place to tackle a crisis that unfortunately as always happens with these sovereign debt crises has built up over a very, very long period of time. But [the crises] unfold very quickly. So the roo
14、ts of the situation are to be found in the last five years or 10 years and probably the last 15 years, since Greece, Portugal, Spain and so on became members of the European Union in the mid 1980s. But the unfolding of t
15、he crisis actually has taken place over just a period of two months or three months and, therefore, if you didn't plan, especially institutionally, for the situation then there is no way in real time that you can act
16、ually put in place the mechanisms to cope with the situation.Saikat Saikat Chaudhuri: Chaudhuri: The latest economic crisis shows it's time to create the right institutions and mechanisms for dealing with the kinds o
17、f financial crises seen in Europe last week. Will we see more crises? I think that in a global economic system.We will see more crises. That's just the nature of it. I think it is a good time to start thinking about
18、the right institutions and mechanisms at those levels, which can respond to these types of crises in an effective fashion. And that's been the lesson from the global financial crisis. I think that's the lesson fr
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