外文翻譯---中國養(yǎng)老保險制度的資本收益率（原文）

1、J Syst Sci Syst Eng(Dec 2006) 15(4): 465-473 ISSN: 1004-3756 (Paper) 1861-9576 (Online) DOI: 10.1007/s11518-006-5024-4 CN11-2983/N © Systems Engineering Society of China & Springer-Verlag 2006 THE RATE OF RETU

2、RN ON CAPITAL FOR PENSION SYSTEM IN CHINA ? Yunyun JIANG1 Ruoen REN2 1,2 School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100083, China 1jiangyunyun@buaa.edu.cn (?) 2ruoen8324@vip.sina.com Abstract The

3、rate of return on capital is a key parameter in pension reform policy making. While evaluating pension reform, the method Feldstein proposed to measure the rate of return on capital is widely adopted. Here we calculate t

4、he rate of return on capital in China by this method. The calculation demonstrates that the rate of return on all the industrial enterprises is around 6.5 percent from 1996 to 2000, and the average rate of return on stat

5、e-owned industrial enterprises is lower than the above figure by 1.5 percent during the same period. Finally, we draw a conclusion that the rate of return ranging from 5 to 7 percent is appropriate for the pension reform

6、 in China. Keywords: The rate of return on capital, pension reform, individual account ? This work was supported in part by National Nature Science Foundation of China key project under Grant No. 70531010. 1. Introducti

7、on As far as the foundation of pension is concerned, China is far from maturity. As matter of fact, the imbalance between income and expenditure on pension has been aggravating over past several years. As statistics show

8、s, there were 5 cities suffering from the imbalance between income and expenditure in 1997, but the number skyrocketed to 21 in 1998, and 25 in 1999 (Ministry of Labor and Social Security, PRC. 2001). Contribution rate f

9、or pension in China went up rapidly from 2.8 percent in 1978 to 28 percent nowadays (World Bank 1997). Like many other countries, it’s imperative for China to reshape her pension system. State Council Document 26 of 1997

10、 called for the establishment of pension system combining social pooling with individual account by the end of 20th century. But no fund can be drawn from the individual account mentioned here, in other words, it is a PA

11、YGO system with nominal account. Therefore, we still face up with the problem of making choices between unfunded system and funded system. The rate of return that each type of pension system provides plays an important

12、role in pension system selection. If PAYGO system provides higher rate of return than funded system does, it means the capital increases in PAYGO system more quickly than funded JIANG and REN JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE A

13、ND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING 467economic capital. Lacking in data, Feldstein et al only estimated the rate of return on American non-financial corporate capital. In U.S., Many macroeconomic data are categorized in terms of non

14、-financial enterprises, financial institutions, government, households and rest of the world (Eugene & Robert 2006). However, few macroeconomic data are categorized in China. The category method is adopted only in F

15、und Flow Table in China. What’s more, state-owned enterprises are incorporated into government sector in U.S. In China, nevertheless, state-owned enterprises are allocated between non-financial sector and financial

16、sector, and many macroeconomic data are categorized in terms of industry in China so that it is difficult and meaningless to estimate the rate of return on non-financial corporate capital in China. Because industry o

17、ccupies an important position in our economy and the data of industrial sector are adequate, we decide to estimate the rate of return on industrial enterprise capital in China. Industry in China is allocated between

18、 state-owned industrial enterprises and non-state-owned industrial enterprises. In order to compare the rate of return on state-owned industrial enterprises capital with non-state-owned industrial enterprises capit

19、al, we would calculate the rate of return on state-owned industrial capital and total industrial capital. In addition, when using the method Feldstein proposed, we make the following adjustments: Firstly, property taxes

20、 aren’t incorporated into capital income. Property taxes in U.S. are based on ownership of the property, and are payable regardless of whether the property is used or not and whether it generates income for the owner (al

21、though these factors may affect the assessed value) (Harvey 1986). As we all know, no property tax is levied in China, and several categories of taxes belong to property tax category, such as tax on the use of vehicles a

22、nd ships, tax on real estates, tax on the use of urban land and land value added tax. But they aren’t equivalent to property tax in U.S. So we don’t incorporate them into capital income (Liu 2000). Secondly, the data of

23、Net Interest Payment from 1982 to 1984, from 1991 to 1992 and from 1996 to 2002 can be found in Industrial Statistics Report, and the data in 1995 can be found in The Third National Industrial Census of The People’s Repu

24、blic of China in 1995. So we only need to estimate net interest payment from 1985 to 1990 and 1993 to 1994. 1) The data of net industrial output value from 1985 to 1990 can be found, so we can calculate Net Interest Paym

25、ent in this way: Net Industrial Interest Payment = Net Industrial Output Value – Accrued Product Sales Profits – Product Sales Tax and Related Payments Payable – Wages – Extra Charges (2) The data of Net Industrial Out

26、put Value and Wages can be directly found in China Statistics Yearbook, so we only need estimate the data of Accrued Product Sales Profit, Product Sales Tax and Related Payment Payable and Extra Charges. Accrued Product

27、Sales Profit is not similar to Product Sales Profit and Total Profit. Total Profit includes not only Product Sales Profit, but also other profit stemmed from non-main business. Product Sales Profit includes the profit st