基于var的棉花價(jià)格波動(dòng)與中國棉花市場(chǎng)供需因素研究

1、 分類號(hào)：F830 密級(jí)：不保密 UDC UDC：336 學(xué)校代碼：11065 碩士專業(yè)學(xué)位論文 基于 基于 VAR VAR 的棉花價(jià)格波動(dòng)與中國棉花市場(chǎng)供 的棉花價(jià)格波動(dòng)與中國棉花市場(chǎng)供需 因素研究 因素研究 陳玉 陳玉 指 導(dǎo) 教 師孫毅 副教授 學(xué) 位 類 別金融碩士 專 業(yè) 領(lǐng) 域期貨研究

2、 答 辯 日 期2017 年 6 月 7 日 Abstract Cotton is now the Chinese second-important crops behind the cereals. As the important strategic materials， cotton plays an important role in China's agriculture， textile industry and

3、 the whole national economy. At present， the Chinese cotton price is very unstable， the difference in price between cotton home and abroad is wide. The instability and unpredictability seriously affect the interests of f

4、armers， circulation and production enterprises. As a result， it has put forward new challenges to the cotton industry development in China. Therefore， this article on China's supply and demand factors impact on cotto

5、n prices research is of great significance. Firstly，this article discusses the fluctuation of the Chinese cotton price， and then discusses the factors which can influence the price. By analyzing the current situation of

6、 cotton industry， it is concluded that China's cotton price is influenced by supply factors and macro factors such as international and policy. In the empirical part， according to China's textile industry earning

7、s per share of cotton prices ， securities industry classification， Guosen securities industry classification of cotton in earnings per share earnings per share， Citic securities industry classification of cotton products

8、， cotton production， cotton yarn， cotton consumption production demand factors such as the VAR model is set up， according to Chinese cotton prices， China's annual cotton， cotton imports in China，Chinese cotton initia

9、l inventory，China's cotton supply factors such as the final inventory VAR model is set up， respectively， using the data stationarity test，Johansen cointegration test，granger causality test，impulse response and varian

10、ce decomposition method is studied， in order to explore the Chinese cotton prices by China's supply and demand factors，based on this，puts forward the measures and policy Suggestions to respond to China's cotton p

11、rices change. This article research conclusion: as the biggest producing and consuming country， developingthe cotton industry has strategic significance. But Chinese cotton price volatility，cotton prices by supply and d