房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)銷量環(huán)比上升，庫存微降；土地出讓進一步攀升

1、,圖表 1: 2018年5月份第五周交易量環(huán)比上升過去6個月的周平均交易量，2016年至今,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,30025020015010050,-25-24-23-22-21-20-19-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11

2、-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10+1+2+3+4,,2 years ago,,1 year ago,,,Current year,(k sqm),(week),,資料來源：CREIS、高華證券研究,全球投資研究,,中國 房地產(chǎn),,2018年6月4日,2,一手房市場：銷量環(huán)比上升，庫存環(huán)比微降,,,圖表 2: 交易量周平均值（深藍色橫線代表上周交易量的周均值）,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

3、,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

4、,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Note: Based on the magnitude of property price appreciation during the 2015-2016 upcycle, the restrictiveness of policy tightening, invento

5、ry levels and future supply outlook, we now classify China cities into three categories (A, B, C). Type A/B/C cities stand for cities with strict/moderate/no tightening policies in 2017, detailed in our report³7LJK

6、W VXSSO\ WUXPSV WLJKW SROLF\´ SXEOLVKHG RQ $SULO 12, 2017.資料來源：CREIS,(k sqm) 9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000,1,23456789,(months)101112,36 cities weekly transaction volume 2015

7、 20162017,2018,0,500,1,000,1,500,2,000,2,500,3,000,3,500,(k sqm)4,000,1,2,345678910,(months)1112,Type A cities weekly transaction volume,(k sqm) 5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000,(

8、months)123456789101112,Type B cities weekly transaction volume 2015 201620172018,9008007006005004003002001000,1234567891011,12,Type C cities weekly transaction volume 2015 20162

9、0172018,(k sqm),(months),全球投資研究,,中國 房地產(chǎn),,2018年6月4日,3,,圖表 3: 年初至今已公布數(shù)據(jù)的32個城市的交易量同比變化幅度中值為-13%上周和年初至今的交易量比較,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0528-0603wow(k sqm)(%),yoy,vs. 2018,Apr,May2018momyoy(k sqm)(%)(%),2018 YTD,vs 2017vs

10、2016vs 2015 vs 2014vs 2013(%)(%)(%)(%)(%),vs 2012,vs 2011,(%),(%),(k sqm),(%),(%),Pan-Bohai Rim & North China,Beijing (Tier 1, A),109-26%,99%,78%,9657%-1%,1,353,-28%,-55%,-59%,-44%,-72%,-43%,-39%,Tianjin

11、(Tier 2, A),n.a.n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,203,5%-24%,2,193,-57%,-76%,-46%,-50%,-52%,-20%,-43%,Qingdao (Tier 2, B),32414%62,13%,-33%,32972,-32%,-12%-5%,7,1621,432,-7%6%,-1%26%,62%53%,111%61%,48%18%,255%182%,133%,Dalian

12、(Tier 2, C),-33%,45%,-28%,-16%,48%,Changchun (Tier 3, C),1430%,5%,-11%,139,-14%,-27%,2,987,-2%,-10%,18%,9%,-3%,76%,32%,Jinan (Tier 3, B),2056%,63%,22%,217,29%,56%,3,886,-12%,-44%,n.a.,73%,8%,n.a.,16%,Harbin (Tier 3, C)

13、,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,Lianyungang (Tier 3, B),172,2%,30%,20%,169,17%,-18%,3,449,-13%,24%,59%,70%,37%,114%,90%,Yangtze River Delta Region,Southern,Central &,Note:

14、*GFA numbers indicated in Hangzhou, Haikou, Kunming, Harbin, Yangzhou, and Lianyungang are for commodity properties; for others, the numbers refer to residential properties.**Based on the magnitude of property price app

15、reciation during the 2015-2016 upcycle, the restrictiveness of policy tightening, inventory levels and future supply outlook, we now classify China cities into three categories (A, B, C).7\SH $/%/& FLWLHV VWDQG IRU

16、FLWLHV ZLWK VWULFW/PRGHUDWH/QR WLJKWHQLQJ SROLFLHV LQ 2017, GHWDLOHG LQ RXU UHSRUW ³7LJKW VXSSO\ WUXPSV WLJKW SROLF\´ SXEOLVKHG RQ $SULO 12, 2017.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Weekly Compari

17、son,Cumulative weekly avg vol of current month,YTD (Jan 1, 2018-Apr 15, 2018) comparison,,,,,資料來源：CREIS,全球投資研究,,中國 房地產(chǎn),,2018年6月4日,4,,圖表 4: 主要一/二/三線城市庫存月數(shù)與庫存,Note: (1) Inventory months are calculated as sellable GFA divid

18、ed by 12-m rolling GFA sold. (2) Tier 1 cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Selective tier 2 cities include Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou,

19、Xiamen. Selective tier 3 cities include Dongguan, Hefei, Wenzhou, Ningbo, Bengbu, Fuzhou and Huizhou資料來源：CREIS、高華證券研究,0,40520,60,80,12020100,140,0,10,15,25,Tier 1 inventory (RHS) Selective tier 3 inventory (RHS),S

20、elective tier 2 inventory (RHS) Tier 1 inventory months (LHS),Selective tier 2 inventory months (LHS),Selective tier 3 inventory months (LHS),(Months),(mn sqm),全球投資研究,,中國 房地產(chǎn),,2018年6月4日,5,二手房市場：中原經(jīng)理指數(shù)環(huán)比上升4.4個百分點，同比也上升；中原

21、報價指數(shù)環(huán)比下降0.1 個百分點但同比上升,,,圖表 5: 中原經(jīng)理指數(shù)均值環(huán)比上升4.4個百分點，同比上升15.6個百分點；中原報價指數(shù)均值環(huán)比下降1.0個百分點，同比上升1.7個百分點中原經(jīng)理指數(shù)(CMI)和中原報價指數(shù)(CAI),######,1RWH: 7KH &HQWDOLQH PDQDJHU GLIIXVLRQ LQGH[ UHIHUV WR DJHQWV¶ YLHZ RQ SURSHUW\ SULFH.

22、An index reading >50 means positive views on price increase, and vice versa. This index covers Tianjin, Chengdu Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shanghai.,1RWH: 7KH KRPH RZQHU GLIIXVLRQ LQGH[ UHIHUV WR VHOOHUV¶ TXRWDWLRQ

23、 SULFH.An index reading >50 means positive views on price increase, and vice versa. This index covers Tianjin, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,100

24、,20,30,40,6050,70,9080,,(%)100,Shenzhen,Tier 1 cities average,Tier 2 cities average,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,,(%)90,Shenzhen,Tier 1 cities average,Tier 2 cities average,,資料來

25、源：Centaline,全球投資研究,,中國 房地產(chǎn),,2018年6月4日,b,估值：海外上市/內(nèi)地上市開發(fā)商市凈率較2010年下半年-2011年上半年放緩階段均值低 17%/29%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,圖表 6: 海外上市開發(fā)商股價較凈資產(chǎn)價值的折讓Offshore share price discount to NAVAverage Avg+1 std Avg-1

26、 std 2H2010-1H2011 Avg,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,圖表 7: 內(nèi)地上市開發(fā)商股價較凈資產(chǎn)價值的折讓Onshore share price discount to NAVAverage Avg+1 std Avg-1 std 2H2010-1H2011 Avg,-80%,-60%,-20%-40%-40%,-20%,0%,-80%,-60%,0

27、%,20%,,,資料來源：Datastream、高華證券研究,,資料來源：Datastream、高華證券研究,全球投資研究,,中國 房地產(chǎn),,2018年6月4日,7,,圖表 8: 海外上市開發(fā)商市凈率,,圖表 9: 內(nèi)地開發(fā)商市凈率,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.0,0.5,1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,,,12mth trailing P/B(x),,Average,Avg+1std,Avg-1

28、std,2H2010-1H2011 Avg,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0,,,12mth trailing P/B(x),,Average,,,Avg+1 std,,Avg-1 std,2H2010-1H2011 avg,,,資料來源：Datastream、高華證券研究,,資料來源：Datastream、高華證券研究,全球投資研究,,中

29、國 房地產(chǎn),,2018年6月4日,8,,Note:*denotes the stock is on our Conviction List.Our 12-month target prices are based on end-2018E NAV for our coverage universe except for RSM, OCT, Greentown and Poly Property (H). Our RSM TP is

30、based on SOTP given it is not a developer. Our OCT TP is based on SOTP of its property development (valued by NAV)and its tourism business (valued by P/E). Our Poly Property (H) TP is a 70%/30% blend of our fundamental

31、valuation (based on end-2018E NAV) and theoretical M&A value (1.8X 2018E P/B). Our Greentown TP is a 85%/15% blend of our fundamental valuation (based on end-2018E NAV) and theoretical M&A value (1.8X 2018E P/B).

32、:H GHULYH 0&$ YDOXHV EDVHG RQ WKH PHDQ PXOWLSOH LPSOLHG E\ UHFHQW 0&$ GHDOV, ZLWK WKH PXOWLSOH DGMXVWHG IRU D SUHPLXP/GLVFRXQW (3/%-52( YV. VHFWRU), GHWDLOHG LQ RXU UHSRUW ³3RO\ +: $VVHVVLQJ DVVHW YDOXH FU\

33、VWDOOL]DWLRQ IURP SRVVLEOH 0&$; XS WR %X\´ SXEOLVKHG RQ )HEUXDU\ 3, 2017 DQG ³,QWURGXFLQJ &KLQD SURSHUW\ 0&$ IUDPHZRUN´ SXEOLVKHG RQ -XQH 13, 2016.Average P/E does not include SOHO which is