供應(yīng)鏈管理導(dǎo)言節(jié)2

1、供應(yīng)鏈管理基礎(chǔ),節(jié) 2預(yù)測(cè),Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,,節(jié) 1:供應(yīng)鏈管理導(dǎo)言節(jié) 2: 預(yù)測(cè)節(jié) 3: 主計(jì)劃節(jié) 4: 物料需求計(jì)劃節(jié) 5: 能力管理與生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)控制節(jié) 6:庫(kù)存基礎(chǔ)節(jié) 7: 庫(kù)存管理 節(jié) 8:分銷節(jié) 9:質(zhì)量管理與采購(gòu)節(jié) 10：適時(shí)生產(chǎn),課程大綱,1-2b,Basics of Supply

2、Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,節(jié) 2 目標(biāo),影響需求的要素需求模型基礎(chǔ)預(yù)測(cè)的基本原理數(shù)據(jù)收集的原則預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)基礎(chǔ)周期性預(yù)測(cè)錯(cuò)誤的原因與類型,2-1b,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,,,,,,,,,,能力管理技術(shù),能力需求計(jì)劃 (CRP),重點(diǎn)管理技術(shù),資源計(jì)劃(RP),生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃,

3、,毛產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃 (RCCP),主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃,物料需求計(jì)劃 (MRP),生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)控制 (PAC),工序生產(chǎn)排序,投入/產(chǎn)出控制,,,,,,,,計(jì)劃與控制層次,在每個(gè)層次，均有三個(gè)問(wèn)題:管理重點(diǎn)是什麼?什麼能力可用?怎麼解決差距?,2-2,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,影響需求的要素,商業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境競(jìng)爭(zhēng)因素市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)公司計(jì)劃,2-3,Basic

4、s of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,需求來(lái)源,所有的需求來(lái)源必需區(qū)分為:客戶備件促銷公司內(nèi)其他,2-4,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,需求特征,2-5,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August

5、 2001,需求模型,穩(wěn)定的 對(duì) 動(dòng)態(tài)的穩(wěn)定需求隨時(shí)間推移保持相同的圖形Stable demand retains same general shape over time動(dòng)態(tài)需求趨向于捉摸不定Dynamic demand tends to be erratic,2-6,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,需求模型,相關(guān)需求 對(duì) 獨(dú)立需求只有獨(dú)立

6、需求可以預(yù)測(cè)Only independent demand needs to be forecast相關(guān)需求不可以預(yù)測(cè)Dependent demand should never be forecast,2-7,箭,箭頭,箭桿,箭羽,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,什麼可以預(yù)測(cè)?,,商務(wù)規(guī)劃,市場(chǎng)方向,2 至 10 年,銷售與運(yùn)作計(jì)劃,產(chǎn)品種類,1

7、 至 3 年,主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃,最終產(chǎn)品及選件,月度,,,,,預(yù)測(cè),期限,,,層次,2-8,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,預(yù)測(cè)原理,預(yù)測(cè)隨時(shí)間推移很少有100% 準(zhǔn)確應(yīng)該包括錯(cuò)誤的評(píng)估產(chǎn)品種類更準(zhǔn)確時(shí)間越近越準(zhǔn)確,2-9,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,數(shù)

8、據(jù)準(zhǔn)備與收集,為預(yù)測(cè)記錄數(shù)據(jù)設(shè)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的記錄環(huán)境以客戶組區(qū)分來(lái)單獨(dú)記錄需求,2-10,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,定性技術(shù),是居于直覺(jué)與見(jiàn)多識(shí)廣的意見(jiàn)趨向于主觀適用于商業(yè)規(guī)劃與新產(chǎn)品預(yù)測(cè)適用于中長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè),2-11,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,定

9、量技術(shù),居于公司內(nèi)的歷史數(shù)據(jù)假定將來(lái)會(huì)重演歷史,2-12,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,外在技術(shù),居于外部指標(biāo)適用于公司種需求或產(chǎn)品大類需求,2-13,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,內(nèi)在定量技術(shù),2-14,Basics of Supply Chain

10、Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,銷售預(yù)測(cè)是歷史值的平均值歷史前三個(gè)月的平均值是:如果一月的銷量是90，那二月的預(yù)測(cè)就是,移動(dòng)平均,2-15,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,移動(dòng)平均預(yù)測(cè),適用于隨機(jī)波動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)Can be used to filter out random variation.時(shí)期

11、越長(zhǎng)波動(dòng)越平滑Longer periods smooth out random variation.如果趨勢(shì)出現(xiàn)，則很難發(fā)現(xiàn)If a trend exists, it is hard to detect.當(dāng)處理多期間時(shí)人工計(jì)算是很費(fèi)解的Manual calculations can be cumbersome when dealing with more periods.,2-16,Basics of Supply Chain Ma

12、nagement, Version 2.1 — August 2001,問(wèn)題 2.1,2-17,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,問(wèn)題 2.1,2-18,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,問(wèn)題 2.1 解答,2-18a,Basics of Supply Chain

13、 Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,指數(shù)平滑法,提供一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)更新中的對(duì)象預(yù)測(cè)穩(wěn)定需求的對(duì)象預(yù)測(cè)效果更好短期預(yù)測(cè)的效果更好能發(fā)現(xiàn)趨勢(shì)，但是落后于趨勢(shì),2-19,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,周期性/季節(jié)性,度量一個(gè)產(chǎn)品呈周期性/季節(jié)性波動(dòng)的需求描述一個(gè)特別期間平均需求對(duì)全期間平均需求的關(guān)系,2-20

14、,季節(jié)指數(shù)=期間平均銷量/所有期間平均銷量,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,,季度每季平均銷量/100 季節(jié)指數(shù)1128/100=1.282102/100=1.02375/100=0.75495/100=0.95 合計(jì)l=4.00,推導(dǎo)季節(jié)銷

15、售指數(shù),,2-21,,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,周期/季節(jié)銷售,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

16、,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,所有期間平均銷量,2-22,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè),預(yù)測(cè)隨時(shí)間推移極少100%正確為何還要監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)計(jì)劃在將來(lái)的錯(cuò)誤評(píng)估實(shí)際需求與預(yù)測(cè)改進(jìn)預(yù)測(cè)方法,2-23,Basics of Supply Chain Mana

17、gement, Version 2.1 — August 2001,預(yù)測(cè)不正確的兩種方式,2-24,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,2-25,預(yù)測(cè)不正確的兩種方式,Basics of Supply Chain Management, Version 2.1 — August 2001,節(jié) 2 目標(biāo),影響需求的要素需求模型基礎(chǔ)預(yù)測(cè)的基本原理數(shù)據(jù)