氣候變化和結(jié)構(gòu)工程外文翻譯

1、<p>　　畢業(yè)設(shè)計外文資料翻譯</p><p>　　題 目 氣候變化和結(jié)構(gòu)工程 </p><p>　　Climate change and structural engineering</p><p>　　51/2 (2007) 47–50</p><p>　　Péter Lenkei<

2、;/p><p>　　Department of Structural Engineering, University of Pécs, H-7625 Boszorkányu. 2, Pécs, Hungary</p><p>　　Abstract

3、 </p><p>　　Based on last years experiences it is obvious for the majority of professionals and for the general public too, that climate change is a realistic present and futur

4、e.</p><p>　　In the beginning this paper deals with the signs and perspectives of climate change. In the second part the consequences of climate change on building and civil engineering structures are treated

5、. The emphasis is laid on the e?ect of temperature, windend water circulation of the globe. The research is directed mainly towards getting reliable future data and its evaluation for practical use. Finally some aspects

6、of standardization procedure and the problem of old/existing and new structures are t</p><p><b>　　Keywords</b></p><p>　　climate change · e?ects on structures · meteorologic

7、al actions </p><p>　　Acknowledgement</p><p>　　The author would like to express his sincere gratitude to Professor Judit Bartholy of the Meteorological Chair of L. Eötvös University fo

8、r her help and understanding .Acknowledgements are due to the National O?ce for Research and Technology Development (NKTH) and to the Hungarian Scienti?c Research Fund (OTKA) for accepting this topic for common future na

9、ncing.</p><p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　The climate change, the global warming and their consequences are well represented in the media. In addition people experience in everyday life smaller or

10、 bigger signs of this process. Nevertheless one can meet skeptic opinions, but the number of such opinions are decreasing due to the obvious evidences. The problem of climate change is very wide and extremely complex, in

11、volving every ?elds of science, and even every side of the life on the globe. It should be pointed out, that this problems in </p><p>　　2 The climate change</p><p>　　The global warming due to th

12、e increased emission of greenhouse gases is investigated by many of the meteorological institutions, offices, bureaus and stations. Great many of reports have been published all around the world. One of the most importan

13、t documents is the series of Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(established by the UN). The last one titled ?Climate Change 2007 – Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”(IP

14、CC 2007).This Report declares ?M</p><p>　　The Report states for the future Magnitude of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global average temperature.” About

15、 the future impact due to the altered frequencies, and intensities of extreme weather, climate and see level events. . . ” the Report pointed out ?Disruption by ?oods and high wind, withdrawal of risk coverage in vulne

16、rable areas by private insurers. . . ” would be of great importance. Responding to the climate change the Report st</p><p>　　The above described general situation makes necessary the adaptation and mitigatio

17、n measures in structural engineering too. For specifying our task we should know the perspectives on he long term about global warming in the Carpathian Region. In the following some regional aspects, e.g. average temper

18、ature increase (Fig. 1) and average precipitation changes (Fig. 2) are hown in the Carpathian Region elaborated by the Meteorology Chair of the Eötvös University, Budapest (Bartholy et al [2]).In th</p>

19、<p>　　Next years some similar diagrams will be elaborated for average wind speed of the above period by the Meteorology Chairof the L. Eötvös University in the frame of a research project sponsored by the

20、National O?ce for Research and Technology Development (NKTH) and the Hungarian Scienti?c Research Fund (OTKA).</p><p>　　3 Possible future impacts of climate change on structures There are several possible di

21、sadvantageous impacts (the following list is not complete).Impacts of temperature changes</p><p>　　? Drought areas (long seasons without precipitation)</p><p>　　? More frequent freezing-thawing

22、cycles (concrete technology)</p><p>　　? Warming of ocean surfaces (resulting in hurricanes or typhoons)</p><p>　　? Thawing of ice reserves (resulting in rising of see level) Impacts of precipita

23、tion changes</p><p>　　? Bigger and abrupt ?oods (higher water levels in lakes and rivers)</p><p>　　? Changing of ground water level (foundation problems)</p><p>　　? Heavy abrupt sno

24、w falls</p><p>　　? Heavy hails (precipitation in the form of ice lumps)Impacts of higher wind speed</p><p>　　? Higher wind impulses</p><p>　　? Wind intensity increase is time depend

25、ed</p><p>　　? Di?erent wind pro?les Impacts of driving rain (combination of heavy rain and largewind speed)</p><p>　　? Deterioration of structural surfaces</p><p>　　? Damage to the

26、water tightness of di?erent elements Impacts of signi?cantly more frequent extremes</p><p>　　? Low cycle fatigue of structural elements</p><p>　　? Accumulation of damages in structures</p>

27、<p>　　These drawbacks make absolutely necessary the engineering response. But adaptation and mitigation measures are made dif?cult by the time dependent (mainly increasing) character of these impacts .The other pr

28、oblem is the lack of reliable future data base due to uncertain nature of these impacts.</p><p>　　4 Future research tasks</p><p>　　One should understand that all the necessary research tasks can

29、not be solved in the frame of our actually ?nanced four years research and the fact that any research in this ?eld can not made without close cooperation of meteorologists.</p><p>　　4.1 This research can not

30、 disregard the temperature and precipitation changes in time</p><p>　　? First of all the temperature changes in time are one of the main bases for every further steps in investigating the e?ects of climate c

31、hange</p><p>　　? The yearly frequency of extremes (min and max) and distribution of extremes are in close connection with temperature changes</p><p>　　? The number of freezing and melting cycles

32、 are depended on temperature and previous precipitation.</p><p>　　4.2 The main concerns of this research are the problems connected with future wind actions and the future change of the temperature and chang

33、e of precipitation.Problems to be solved in the ?eld of wind actions</p><p>　　? The ?rst problem is the traditional wind measuring method.This consists of measuring in each hour or one and half hour the aver

34、age wind speed in the last ten minutes. Naturally this would not the largest wind speed for the measuring period.</p><p>　　? In addition we need not the average wind speed, but the wind impulse of 3 sec dura

35、tion. There should be cleared up the relation between the wind speed and wind impulse.</p><p>　　? Another open question is the frequency and distribution of maximal wind speeds.</p><p>　　? The m

36、ethod of interpolation between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 average wind speeds should be investigated too.</p><p>　　? Very important question is to determine the relation between the wind pro?le (the wind speed

37、changes in elevation) and the changing value of the wind speed.</p><p>　　Fig. 1. Seasonal temperature change (?C) in the Carpathian basin for 2071-</p><p>　　2100 based on European regional model

38、 simulation ( Bartholy et al.)</p><p>　　Dispersion σ=0,3-1,1oC</p><p>　　Fig. 2. Seasonal precipitation change (%) in the Carpathian basin for 2071-2100 based on European regional model simulatio

39、n (Bartholy et al.)</p><p>　　Dispersion σ=12-20%</p><p>　　5 Standardization of meteorological actions</p><p>　　The occurrence probability of meteorological actions in different stru

40、ctural design codes generally equal to 0.02, i.e. 50 years occurrence probability of highest, most dangerous value.It is obvious, that in changing circumstances the 50 years occurrence probability would be di?erent in ea

41、ch consecutive year.The other problem is that up to now these values have been determined from relevant past data. In the future these values should be determined from uncertain future data (Lenkei 2006).In add</p>

42、<p>　　ally with the measured past data and previous uncertain values.To deal with long term forecast the intervals of revision should be designated. Another solution could be the use of time dependent formulae.<

43、;/p><p>　　6 Different design procedure for old/existing and for new structures</p><p>　　At ?rst sight it appears that the problem of new structures is easy: one just should take into account the ne

44、w design codes suitable to the challenges of the climate change. They will be a little more expensive, that is all. But do not forget, the today new structures in 10-20 years will be old, the change keep on. What to do w

45、ith old/existing structures? Most probable there should be made more or less signi?cant and consequently more or less expensive interventions. These interventions could be</p><p>　　7 Conclusions</p>&

46、lt;p>　　The structural engineers should take into account among others the obvious climate change and its impacts on structures .The task is not easy: to work out the answers to the challenges of the climate change, na

47、mely the adaptation and mitigation measures for old and new structures of buildings and civil engineering objects. Finding the optimal solution(s) would be even more complicated, but this is our task and our responsibili

48、ty.</p><p>　　References</p><p>　　1. IPCC Climate Change 2007, Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,: Summary for Policymakers, April 6 2007, available at (http://www.ipccc/pub/re

49、ports.htm).</p><p>　　2 .Bartholy J, Pongrácz R, Gelybó Gy, Regional Climate Change Expected</p><p>　　in Hungary for 2071-2100, 2007. Appl.Ecology and Environmental Research 5(1):1-17.&

50、lt;/p><p>　　3. Lenkei P, Concrete Structures and the Probable Climate Change: 2nd ?b</p><p>　　Congress, Doppieroce, Italy, 2006. Condensed Papers (2) 564-565.</p><p>　　Periodica Polyte

51、chnica 2007 51/2 (2007) 47–50</p><p><b>　　氣候變化和結(jié)構(gòu)工程</b></p><p><b>　　皮特·雷肯</b></p><p><b>　　匈牙利佩奇大學</b></p><p>　　摘 要 根據(jù)過去幾年的

52、經(jīng)驗,顯而易見,對大多數(shù)的專業(yè)人員和廣大市民來說氣候變化在現(xiàn)在和未來都是一個具有現(xiàn)實意義的問題。本文首先論述了氣候變化的跡象和觀點。接著分析了氣候變化對建筑與土木工程結(jié)構(gòu)的變化帶來的后果，重點強調(diào)全球范圍的溫度、風和水循環(huán)的影響。這項研究主要是為了獲得可靠的未來走向數(shù)據(jù)及其實際使用的評價。最后，探討了某些方面的標準化程序,以及現(xiàn)存的和新的結(jié)構(gòu)問題的處理。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞 氣候變化，結(jié)構(gòu)影響，氣象行動

53、</p><p>　　鳴謝 筆者就Eötvös大學氣象學主席Judit Bartholy教授對她的幫助和理解表示自己真摯的謝意。由于國家研究和科技開發(fā)辦公室(NKTH)及匈牙利科研基金(OTKA)接受這個話題,為共同的未來融資。</p><p><b>　　1 引言</b></p><p>　　在媒體上，氣候變化、全球

54、變暖及其帶來后果是很好的代表。另外，人們在日常生活中的經(jīng)歷較小或更大的彰顯著這個過程。由于明顯的證據(jù)這些意見的數(shù)量正在減少。不過，可以滿足懷疑論者的意見。氣候變化這個問題非常廣泛而且非常復(fù)雜,涉及每個科學領(lǐng)域、甚至地球上的每一個生命。應(yīng)該指出,這個問題在結(jié)構(gòu)工程方面是很重要的,但涉及的一小部分的一般問題。據(jù)筆者認為，氣候變化的適應(yīng)與減緩程序應(yīng)運用于各種行業(yè)的活動，總之，本文的目的是在給我們專業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)工程提出必要的步驟。</p>

55、<p><b>　　2 氣候變化</b></p><p>　　許多氣象機構(gòu)、辦事處、部門和電臺調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)全球變暖是由于溫室氣體的排放量的增加。一些大的報道已經(jīng)將其公布于世界各地，政府間氣候變化專門委員會（由聯(lián)合國設(shè)立）已經(jīng)公布了一系列的評估報告，其中有一個最重要的報告，這份報告題為“氣候變化2007 - 氣候變化影響，適應(yīng)性和脆弱性”（IPCC，2007）。該報告宣稱“過去五年

56、積累了更多的證據(jù)表明在許多物理和生物系統(tǒng)的變化與人為變暖有著密切的聯(lián)系?！?lt;/p><p>　　該報告聲稱對未來的國家的影響程度現(xiàn)在可以更有系統(tǒng)地估計為全球平均氣溫可能上升的范圍。關(guān)于未來改變頻率和強度的極端天氣，氣候和級別的事件造成的影響，報告指出 “由洪水和強風的干擾，撤出風險覆蓋的脆弱地區(qū)的費用由私營保險公司承擔?！笨赡芫哂惺种匾囊饬x，報告強調(diào)氣候變化的適應(yīng)和減緩措施是很必要的。以上所述的一般情況，在結(jié)

57、構(gòu)工程中采取適應(yīng)和減緩措施是必要的。為了確定我們的任務(wù),我們應(yīng)該放遠目光在全球變暖的喀爾巴阡地區(qū)。以下的一些地區(qū),如平均溫度升高(圖1)和平均降雨量的變化(圖2)所示, 在喀爾巴阡地區(qū)，Eötvös大學的氣象學主席闡述了布達佩斯的（Bartholy等[2]）。在這些圖中所示的預(yù)期在不利的情況下，1961年至1990年期間在2071年至2100年的相對改變。這些數(shù)據(jù)來自18個氣象機構(gòu)運用于區(qū)域氣候變化模型的研究成果。未

58、來幾年，由國家研究和技術(shù)開發(fā)辦公室（NKTH）及匈牙利科學委員會（OTKA）資助的在匈牙利Eötvös大學開發(fā)的研究項目將闡述一些上述時期內(nèi)的平均風速的類似的圖表。 </p><p>　　可能的未來氣候變化對結(jié)構(gòu)的影響</p><p>　　有以下幾種可能的不利影響（以下羅列是不完整的）。</p><p><b>　　溫度變化的影響<

59、;/b></p><p>　　?干旱地區(qū)(長期無降水季節(jié))</p><p>　　?更頻繁的凍融周期(混凝土技術(shù))</p><p>　　?海洋表面變暖(導致颶風或臺風)</p><p>　　?融化的冰儲備(能見水平上升導致降水的變化)</p><p>　　?更大和突發(fā)的洪水(湖泊和河流的高水位)</p>

60、<p>　　?改變地下水位（基礎(chǔ)問題）</p><p><b>　　?重型突然降雪</b></p><p>　　?重型冰雹（在冰腫塊的形式沉淀）高風速的影響?高風沖動</p><p>　　?時間影響下風強度的增加</p><p>　　?不同的風廓線的影響雨天行車（大雨和狂風速度的共同影響）</p&g

61、t;<p><b>　　?表面結(jié)構(gòu)惡化</b></p><p>　　?不同元素的水密性損傷明顯影響著更頻繁的極端情況</p><p>　　?結(jié)構(gòu)元素的低周疲勞</p><p>　　?結(jié)構(gòu)中積累的損害賠償</p><p>　　這些弊端使得工程方面進行絕對必要的改變，但適應(yīng)與減緩措施受時間的影響(主要是增加)而

62、存在困難，另一個問題是由于這些影響的不確定性而缺乏可靠的數(shù)據(jù)。</p><p><b>　　未來的研究任務(wù)</b></p><p>　　每個人都應(yīng)該明白，所有必要的研究工作是不能解決我們實際資助四年的研究，在這個領(lǐng)域中的任何研究都不能沒有氣象專家的密切合作。</p><p>　　4.1本研究不能忽略氣溫和降水量的變化</p>&l

63、t;p>　　?首先所有隨時間變化的溫度是進一步進行氣候變化影響調(diào)查中的一個主要依據(jù)</p><p>　　?每年的極端頻率(最小和最大)和極端的分布是隨溫度變化緊密聯(lián)系的</p><p>　　?凍結(jié)和融化周期取決于溫度和以前的降水</p><p>　　4.2本研究的主要問題是未來風行動和未來溫度和降水量的變化之間的關(guān)系</p><p>　

64、　在風行動的領(lǐng)域要解決的問題</p><p>　　?首先，問題是傳統(tǒng)的風的測算方法，這包括測量在每小時或一個半小時，在最后十分鐘的平均風速，但這自然不會測量期間的最大風速。</p><p>　　?此外，我們需要的不是平均風速,而是需要持續(xù)3秒的風向的運動，因此應(yīng)該解決風速和風向運動之間的關(guān)系。</p><p>　　?另一個懸而未決的問題是最大風速的頻率和分布。<

65、;/p><p>　　?應(yīng)用插值方法調(diào)查1961-1990年和2071年至2100年平均風速。</p><p>　　?非常重要的問題是確定風廓線（海拔在風速變化）和風速的變化值之間的關(guān)系。</p><p>　　圖1.根據(jù)歐洲區(qū)域模型模擬在2071-2100年喀爾巴阡盆季節(jié)性的溫度變化(?C) (Bartholy等) 分散σ=0.3-1.1?C</p><

66、;p>　　圖2.根據(jù)歐洲區(qū)域模型模擬在2071– 2100年喀爾巴阡盆地盆地各季降水變化(%)(Bartholy等)分散σ=12-2％</p><p>　　5 標準化的氣象行為</p><p>　　氣象行為在不同氣象結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計規(guī)范的發(fā)生概率通常等于0.02,即50年來發(fā)生的機率最高，危險性也最強。這是顯而易見的，不斷變化的環(huán)境在50年發(fā)生機率會在每一年內(nèi)連續(xù)不同。另一個問題是，到目前

67、為止，這些值已經(jīng)根據(jù)過去的有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)確定。在未來這些值應(yīng)該從不確定的未來數(shù)據(jù)中確定(Lenkei 2006)。此外，這些不確定的數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)在連接功能上與實測的歷史數(shù)據(jù)和以前的不確定值，并指定處理長期預(yù)測修訂間隔。這些不確定的數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)在另一個解決方案可以利用時變成參數(shù)的選取。</p><p>　　6 舊/現(xiàn)有的及新的結(jié)構(gòu)的不同設(shè)計過程</p><p>　　乍一看，似乎新的結(jié)構(gòu)問題很簡單：應(yīng)該考慮到

68、新的設(shè)計規(guī)范適應(yīng)于氣候變化的挑戰(zhàn)。所有的原因在于他們會比較昂貴，但不要忘記, 一切都是變化的，今天的新結(jié)構(gòu)在10-20年內(nèi)將是舊的。舊/現(xiàn)有結(jié)構(gòu)做什么用？據(jù)此應(yīng)該最有可能的就是或多或少的對其進行干預(yù)。這些干預(yù)措施可能會有所不同, 例如改變一些結(jié)構(gòu)性因素（S），加強一些部分（S）的結(jié)構(gòu)，由靜態(tài)的不確定性增加或改變整個結(jié)構(gòu)的結(jié)構(gòu)行為，使結(jié)構(gòu)更穩(wěn)健。應(yīng)該提及,建筑，土木工程和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的對象相當于一大部分國家財富。因此，任何必要的干預(yù)，將與大的

69、開支有密切聯(lián)系。</p><p><b>　　7 結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　結(jié)構(gòu)工程師應(yīng)考慮其它明顯的氣候變化及其對建筑的影響。這項任務(wù)并不容易:制定應(yīng)對氣候變化挑戰(zhàn)的對策, 即新老結(jié)構(gòu)的適應(yīng)和減緩措施對建筑和土木工程的挑戰(zhàn)。尋找最佳的解決方案（S）將更加復(fù)雜,但這是我們的任務(wù)和職責。</p><p><b>　　參考文獻&

70、lt;/b></p><p>　　1. IPCC Climate Change 2007, Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers, April 6 2007, available at (http://www.ipccc/pub/reports.htm).</p><p

71、>　　2 .Bartholy J, Pongrácz R, Gelybó Gy, Regional Climate Change Expected</p><p>　　in Hungary for 2071-2100, 2007. Appl.Ecology and Environmental Research</p><p>　　5(1):1-17.</p&