全球天然氣展望2050

1、CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibitedFebruary 2021Summary reportGlobal gas outlook to 2050McKinsey & Company 35 key findi

2、ngs1 2 3 4 52020 saw both extreme market oversupply and extreme tightness2020 market demand was driven by China and India growing a combined 9.5 metric tons (MT)LNG demand is resilient Approximately 100MT of a

3、dditional liquefaction capacity is needed by 2035 and more than 200 MT by 2050The energy transition will reshape gas- demand use The price volatility seen in late 2020 and early 2021 is likely to remain for the

4、 medium term. A tight balance between supply and demand to 2025 will create fluctuating prices as unpredictable events flip the market between tightness and excess supply.Asia will continue to drive global LNG dem

5、and growth. However, China becomes less important as a driver for LNG demand beyond 2035 and will see demand peak around 2040. South and Southeast Asia will take over as key demand drivers.LNG demand grew by 1% i

6、n 2020, while global gas demand declined. Longer term, the share of LNG in the global gas supply will increase from today’s 13% to 23% by 2050 as it meets demand growth and replaces declining pipeline and domest

7、ic gas.A majority of this will likely come from US projects representing the long-run marginal LNG-supply capacity and will need to differentiate either commercially or by emission intensity. 138 MT of LNG capaci

8、ty is currently under constructionGas demand in the transport sector is set to grow by 50 billion cubic meters by 2035 with a compound annual growth rate of 2.2%. Gas for power will decline in Europe, Japan, and