[雙語翻譯]---外文翻譯--人民幣的國際化新起點(diǎn)，新躍變，新臨界點(diǎn)（原文）

1、The internationalisation of the RMB: New starts, jumps and tipping pointsJonathan A. Batten a,?, Peter G. Szilagyi b,ca Department of Banking and Finance, Monash Business School, Monash University, PO Box 197, Caulfield

2、East, Victoria 3145, Australia b CEU Business School, Central European University, Frankel Leó út 30-34., Budapest 1023, Hungary c Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge,

3、CB2 1AG, United Kingdoma r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c tArticle history:Received 5 August 2014Received in revised form 24 March 2015Accepted 12 February 2016Available online 22 September 2016We investigate the proces

4、s of currency internationalisation of theChinese Renminbi (RMB). Aggregated cross-border data provided bythe Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications(SWIFT) allows better measurement of the role playe

5、d by a currencyin trade and settlement. RMB transactions are significant and increasingbut remain concentrated in key financial centres. Analysis using an assetpricing framework shows that the footprint of Chinese corpor

6、ations ininternational markets has at times been significant, with the size ofthese transactions prompting many to reassess the likely pace of RMBinternationalisation and its usage as an alternate vehicle currency.©

7、 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.JEL classifications:F02F24F31F36G15Keywords:Currency InternationalisationFinancial market developmentRenminbiRMBSociety for Worldwide Interbank FinancialTelecommunications (SWIFT)1

8、. IntroductionCurrency internationalisation provides significant economic benefits to a country's residents (Kenen,2009; Cohen, 2012, McCauley, 2015; Liao and McDowell, 2016; Zhang, and Tao, 2016). However, whatmakes

9、 a currency international and how should one measure internationalisation? The simple answer tothe first question is to consider its role in cross-border transactions, both trade and capital account, and as aEmerging Mar

10、kets Review 28 (2016) 221–238? Corresponding author.E-mail addresses: jonathan.batten@monash.edu (J.A. Batten), szilagyip@business.ceu.edu, p.szilagyi@jbs.cam.ac.uk (P.G. Szilagyi).http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2016

11、.02.0061566-0141/© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Contents lists available at ScienceDirectEmerging Markets Reviewjournal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/emrassessment of the impact of policy decisions and

12、 reform aimed at enhancing currency use in global markets.Our approach benefits from the higher frequency SWIFT data and so provides an insight into whether there isa “tipping point” for RMB internationalisation in the s

13、ense of Chinn and Frankel (2005). For example, does theusage of a currency for pricing commodities and trade increase monotonically over time, or does a certainlevel of usage (the tipping point) cause the currency to bec

14、ome more widely used? We show that when com-paring the rate of change in the value of various SWIFT messages worldwide to those denominated in RMB,the relationship is positive, which is consistent with the wider usage of

15、 the RMB worldwide, although the re-cent pace of usage is now more consistent with worldwide macroeconomic developments.Overall, our results show that the RMB has definitely internationalised in recent years, with both s

16、ingleand aggregate measures changing in response to recent deregulatory measures. Anecdotal evidence suggeststhat a tipping point has not yet been reached. If anything our results highlight the effects of declining momen

17、-tum. It is important to note that other emerging currencies, such as the Indian rupee and the Brazilian real arealso gaining importance internationally and are increasingly used for trade settlement especially within th

18、eirlocal regions (BIS, 2010, 2013a).This study also provides further insights into the existing role of international financial centres (e.g. Garcia-Herrero, Tsai and Le, 2012; BIS, 2013a; and He, Korhonen, Guo and Liu,

19、2016). Not surprising is our findingthat RMB transactions are mostly undertaken where one counterparty is located in the financial centres offirst Hong Kong, then Macau and Singapore and to some extent Taipei, where cult

20、ural and social links placethem at an advantage to those counterparties undertaken in Europe. However, transactions in RMB whereboth counterparties are non-residents (as currently occurs in the USD Eurobond markets) are

21、increasingly un-dertaken in the financial centres of London and New York, especially for foreign exchange trading and inter-national money market transactions. Recall that London and New York are the world's primary

22、and secondarycentres for foreign exchange trading. Our findings confirm that the value of London based RMB foreign ex-change trading now exceeds transactions undertaken in Hong Kong and Singapore, which is consistentwith

23、 London's pre-eminent role as the world's centre for derivatives and foreign exchange trading (BIS,2010, 2013a, 2016).For now the results from this analysis show that the momentum of RMB internationalisation has

24、stabilised,suggesting that China's path to RMB internationalisation will remain slow. This conclusion is consistent withmany other studies, including Hua (2010), Tung et al. (2012), Eichengreen and Kawai (2014), and

25、Shu, He andCheng (2015). Ultimately reform initiatives must be maintained to ensure that China is able to fully capitaliseupon the opportunities that are now unfolding as the international economic and political landscap

26、e shiftsmore towards its favour. (e.g. Taylor, 2013; He, Luk and Zhang, 2016; Tsuchiya, 2016; Yelery, 2016; andZhang and Tao, 2016).The paper is set out as follows: next we provide further background on the recent litera

27、ture on currencyinternationalisation and China's footprint and role in international financial markets; then we explain theSWIFT data and method used in the study. Our results are presented in two stages: first we pr

28、ovide analysisof single measures of internationalisation based on the SWIFT variables; then we present the results using acovariance based measure. The final section offers conclusions and recommendations.2. BackgroundIn

29、 the post Bretton–Woods international environment the U.S. dollar (USD) has been the preferred curren-cy for reserve denomination and the settling of international trade and capital transactions (Lee, 2010; Maziadet al.,

30、 2011; He and Yu, 2016). In all aspects, the USD remains pre-eminent despite an expected reversal in itsfortunes due to the introduction of the euro and a perceived decline in US political and economic hegemony(see Chinn

31、 and Frankel, 2005). More recently there was hope that the new economic giant of China, might at-tempt to better position its currency, the RMB, in international markets.Recent discussions investigating the role that the

32、 RMB now plays in international markets2 invariablycompare China's recent experience with the earlier experience of Japan (e.g. Kawai and Takagi, 2011). Twodecades ago, Japan failed to fully internationalise its curr

33、ency, the Japanese yen (JPY), despite having a2 See the milestones of offshore RMB internationalisation (Source: HKEx, Market Statistics 2011) http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/newsconsul/hkexnews/2012/documents/120119news.pdf.