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1、Introduction1HistyNotsolongagothescoffercouldsaythateconometricsgametheywerelikeJapanArgentina.Inthelate1940sbothdisciplinesbotheconomieswerefullofpromisepoisedfrapidgrowthreadytomakeaprofoundimpactonthewld.Weallknowwhat

2、happenedtotheeconomiesofJapanArgentina.Ofthedisciplineseconometricsbecameaninseparablepartofeconomicswhilegametheylanguishedasasubdisciplineinterestingtoitsspecialistsbutignedbytheprofessionasawhole.Thespecialistsingamet

3、heyweregenerallymathematicianswhocaredaboutdefinitionsproofsratherthanapplyingthemethodstoeconomicproblems.Gametheiststookprideinthediversityofdisciplinestowhichtheirtheycouldbeappliedbutinnonehaditbecomeindispensable.In

4、the1970stheanalogywithArgentinabrokedown.AtthesametimethatArgentinawasinvitingbackJuanPeroneconomistswerebeginningtodiscoverwhattheycouldachievebycombininggametheywiththestructureofcomplexeconomicsituations.Innovationint

5、heyapplicationwasespeciallyusefulfsituationswithasymmetricinfmationatempalsequenceofactionsthetwomajthemesofthisbook.Duringthe1980sgametheybecamedramaticallymeimptanttomainstreameconomics.Indeeditseemedtobeswallowingupmi

6、croeconomicsjustaseconometricshadswallowedupempiricaleconomics.GametheyisgenerallyconsideredtohavebegunwiththepublicationofvonNeumann&Mgenstern’sTheTheyofGamesEconomicBehaviourin1944.Althoughverylittleofthegametheyinthat

7、thickvolumeisrelevanttothepresentbookitintroducedtheideathatconflictcouldbemathematicallyanalyzedprovidedtheterminologywithwhichtodoit.Thedevelopmentofthe“Prisoner’sDilemma”(Tucker[unpub])Nash’spapersonthedefinitionexist

8、enceofequilibrium(Nash[1950b1951])laidthefoundationsfmodernnoncooperativegamethey.AtthesametimecooperativegametheyreachedimptantresultsinpapersbyNash(1950a)Shapley(1953b)onbargaininggamesGillies(1953)Shapley(1953a)onthec

9、e.By1953virtuallyallthegametheythatwastobeusedbyeconomistsfthenext20yearshadbeendeveloped.Untilthe1970sgametheyremainedanautonomousfieldwithlittlerelevancetomainstreameconomicsimptantexceptionsbeingSchelling’s1960bookThe

10、StrategyofConflictwhichintroducedthefocalpointaseriesofpapers(ofwhichDebreu&Scarf[1963]istypical)thatshowedtherelationshipoftheceofagametothegeneralequilibriumofaneconomy.Inthe1970sinfmationbecamethefocusofmanymodelsasec

11、onomistsstartedtoputemphasisonindividualswhoactrationallybutwithlimitedinfmation.When1July241999.May272002.ArielKemper.August62003.24March2005.EricRasmusen.Http:www.rasmusen.gGI.Footnotesstartingwithxxxaretheauth’snotest

12、ohimself.Commentsarewelcomed.Thissectioniszzzpageslong.1goesbacktothinkinginwdstryingtounderstmethanwhethertheproofsaremathematicallycrect.GoodtheyofanykindusesOccam’srazwhichcutsoutsuperfluousexplanationstheceterisparib

13、usassumptionwhichrestrictsattentiontooneissueatatime.Exemplifyingtheygoesastepfurtherbyprovidinginthetheyonlyanarrowanswertothequestion.AsFishersays“Exemplifyingtheydoesnottelluswhatmusthappen.Ratherittellsuswhatcanhappe

14、n.”InthesameveinatChicagoIhaveheardthestylecalled“StiesThatMightbeTrue.”Thisisnotdestructivecriticismifthemodellerismodestsincetherearealsoagreatmany“StiesThatCan’tBeTrue”whichareoftenusedasthebasisfdecisionsinbusinessgo

15、vernment.Justasthemodellershouldfeelhehasdoneagoodday’swkifhehaseliminatedmostoutcomesasequilibriainhismodelevenifmultipleequilibriaremainsoheshouldfeelusefulifhehasruledoutcertainexplanationsfhowthewldwksevenifmultiplep

16、lausiblemodelsremain.Theaimshouldbetocomeupwithonemestiesthatmightapplytoaparticularsituationthentrytostoutwhichstygivesthebestexplanation.Inthiseconomicscombinesthedeductivereasoningofmathematicswiththeanalogicalreasoni

17、ngoflaw.Acriticofthemathematicalapproachinbiologyhascomparedittoanhourglass(Slatkin[1980]).Firstabroadimptantproblemisintroduced.Seconditisreducedtoaveryspecialbuttractablemodelthathopestocaptureitsessence.Finallyinthemo

18、stperilouspartoftheprocesstheresultsareexpedtoapplytotheiginalproblem.Exemplifyingtheydoesthesamething.Theprocessisoneofsettingup“IfThen”statementswhetherinwdssymbols.Toapplysuchstatementstheirpremisesconclusionsneedtobe

19、verifiedeitherbycasualcarefulempiricism.Iftherequiredassumptionsseemcontrivedtheassumptionsimplicationscontradictrealitytheideashouldbediscarded.If“reality”isnotimmediatelyobviousdataisavailableeconometrictestsmayhelpsho

20、wwhetherthemodelisvalid.Predictionscanbemadeaboutfutureeventsbutthatisnotusuallytheprimarymotivation:mostofusaremeinterestedinexplainingunderstingthanpredicting.ThemethodjustdescribedisclosetohowaccdingtoLakatos(1976)mat

21、hematicaltheemsaredeveloped.Itcontrastssharplywiththecommonviewthattheresearcherstartswithahypothesisprovesdisprovesit.Insteadtheprocessofproofhelpsshowhowthehypothesisshouldbefmulated.Animptantpartofexemplifyingtheyiswh

22、atKreps&Spence(1984)havecalled“blackboxing”:treatingunimptantsubcomponentsofamodelinacursyway.Thegame“EntryfBuyout”ofsection15.4fexampleaskswhetheranewentrantwouldbeboughtoutbytheindustry’sincumbentproducersomethingthatd

23、ependsonduopolypricingbargaining.BothpricingbargainingarecomplicatedgamesinthemselvesbutifthemodellerdoesnotwishtodeflectattentiontothosetopicshecanusethesimpleNashCournotsolutionstothosegamesgoontoanalyzebuyout.Iftheent

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