配銷與供應(yīng)鏈

1、F5QuestionTargetnecessarycondition1必要條件1prerequisite1前提條件1necessarycondition2必要條件2Ontheotherhletsnotfgetthereissomethingcalledcostaswellwewanttomakemoney.另一方面，不要忘了有個(gè)東西叫成本，我們想要賺錢。Soindertomanagewellyoumustcontrolcostsyoum

2、ustreducecosts.所以為了要做好管理，你必須控制成本、降低成本prerequisite2前提條件2沖突Conflict錯(cuò)誤假設(shè)ErroneousAssumptionDefinitions名詞定義：ProcessDo:DeionCommentsletmestarttoaskyouLetsstartwiththethingwhichisthemostimpossibletochangewhichis–letshaveameacc

3、uratefecast.我們先從最不可能改變的部分開(kāi)始—得到更準(zhǔn)確的銷售預(yù)估Whichmeanstheaccuracyattheregionalwarehouselevelisbyfarbetterthantheaccuracyofthefecastatthesellingpointslevel.也就是說(shuō)，區(qū)域倉(cāng)庫(kù)層級(jí)的準(zhǔn)確度，會(huì)比商店層級(jí)的準(zhǔn)確度高很多Wehaveinthesystemdifferentaccuracylevels.我

4、們的系統(tǒng)里有不同層級(jí)的準(zhǔn)確度Theaccuracyimprovesaccdingtothesquarerootofthenumberthatyouconsolidate.準(zhǔn)確度會(huì)隨著商店數(shù)的平方根而按比例遞增Thatisthemeaningof‘fluctuationsareaveragingout’.這就是“波動(dòng)會(huì)在平均后相互抵銷”的意思Whereisthemostaccuratepointofthesystem系統(tǒng)最準(zhǔn)確的數(shù)字會(huì)出現(xiàn)

5、在哪里？Atthesourceattheplant.在源頭，就是工廠Notthatitisveryaccuratebutitisthemostaccuratepointofthesystem.不見(jiàn)得要到非常準(zhǔn)確的地步，至少是系統(tǒng)中最準(zhǔn)確的地方。Weareholdingtheinventiesatthemostaccuratefecastpointthatwehave.我們要把存貨放在銷售預(yù)估最準(zhǔn)確的地方。Weareholdingasmu

6、chasweneedattheplant.我們?cè)诠S里持有所需的存貨。LooknowwhathappensifIamholdinghereinventiesnowletsaskwhathappenedtothereplenishmenttime.現(xiàn)在看看發(fā)生什么事。如果我在這里持有存貨，會(huì)對(duì)補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間產(chǎn)生什么影響呢？WhatisthereplenishmenttimetothiswarehouseIt’stheproductionrepl

7、enishmenttime.對(duì)這個(gè)倉(cāng)庫(kù)來(lái)說(shuō)，補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間是多少？是生產(chǎn)補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間SupposethatIdo.Whatisnowthereplenishmenttimetoaregionalwarehouse假設(shè)我這么做，現(xiàn)在對(duì)區(qū)域倉(cāng)庫(kù)來(lái)說(shuō)，補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間是多少？Itisnotanymeconnectedtoproductionleadtime.這和生產(chǎn)前置時(shí)間已經(jīng)毫不相關(guān)了。Itisjustthetransptation.只是運(yùn)輸時(shí)間Oneisw

8、ehavecutdramaticallythereplenishmenttimefallthetopofthesystem.第一件事：我們大幅縮短整個(gè)系統(tǒng)上層的補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間。WhyBecausewetookoutoftheequationamajpartoftheproductionreplenishmenttimewhichistheproductionleadtime.為什么呢？因?yàn)槲覀兛鄢舜蟛糠值纳a(chǎn)補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間，也就是生產(chǎn)前置時(shí)間If

9、wecanguaranteethatwewillhavealltheproductsptfolioherethensincewehavecutnowdrasticallythereplenishmenttimewecanmuchmuchbetterguaranteethatwewillhavealltheproductptfoliohere.因?yàn)槲覀儸F(xiàn)在大幅縮短補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間，于是更能保證這里有全部的產(chǎn)品組合。ifwewilldothatwe

10、canguaranteemuchmethatyouwillhavewhateveryouwant.如此一來(lái)，我們就能保證你可以得到任何想要的東西。Inotherwdsbydoingthatitisnotjustthatwecutreplenishmenttimewehaveincreasedthereliabilitydrastically.換句話說(shuō)，這么一來(lái)，我們不僅縮短了補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間，也大幅增加了可靠度Nowthequestionsta

11、rtstobehowmuchshouldweholdeverywhere現(xiàn)在問(wèn)題變成：我們?cè)诿總€(gè)地方應(yīng)該持有多少存貨？ThequestionisokhowdoIturnitintoawkableprocedure問(wèn)題是我如何把它變成可執(zhí)行的程序呢？HowtoMeasurementsnotjustfthedistributionbutfthewholesupplychain.不只是配銷的績(jī)效評(píng)估方法，而是整條供應(yīng)鏈的績(jī)效評(píng)估方法Themo

12、stimptantthingaboutmeasurementsistoremindourselveswhatisthepurposeofmeasurements.績(jī)效評(píng)估最重要的是提醒我們?cè)u(píng)估的目的是什么？Wearemeasuringnotindertohavenumbersonpaper.我們不是為了在紙上看到數(shù)字才作評(píng)估。Wearemeasuringindertoinducethepartstodowhatisgoodfthesys

13、temasawhole.而是為了要引導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)的每個(gè)部分去做對(duì)整體有利的事。Thisisthemostimptantthingofthemeasurement.這是績(jī)效評(píng)估最重要的事。Measurementsarenotjustnumbersmeasurementsarethevehicletoinfluenceabehavi.評(píng)估不只是數(shù)字，而且是影響行為的工具。Wrongmeasurementsinfluencewrongbehavic

14、rectmeasurementsmeanstheyinfluencetherightbehavi.錯(cuò)誤的評(píng)估方法造成錯(cuò)誤的行為，正確的評(píng)估方法促成正確的行為。whatisthemeaningofrightbehavi正確的行為是什么意思？Themeaningisinducingthepartstodowhatisgoodfthesystemasawhole.意思是引導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)的每個(gè)部分去做對(duì)整體有利的事。Oneofthemostimptan

15、tthingsthatwemeasuretodayishowmanytimesdoweshipontime.今天作評(píng)估時(shí)，最重要的一件事就是我們有幾次準(zhǔn)時(shí)出貨？90%ontimethismeansmaybethatallthedersarethesame.90%準(zhǔn)時(shí)出貨，這意謂著也許所有的訂單都相同Weareassumingasifallthedersarethesamewhenwearetalkingaboutpercentage.我

16、們說(shuō)到百分比的時(shí)候，是假設(shè)所有的訂單都相同thenthere’ssomethingelse.接著還有一件事。OhImissedbyaday.噢，我晚了一天。OhImissedonederbyamonth.噢，有張訂單我晚了一個(gè)月。Isitthesame這兩者相同嗎？batching批次1=Oneiswedon’twanttodofecasteverydaywedon’thavetimefitsowewillissuedersoncein

17、2weekswewillissuedersonceamonth.一個(gè)原因是我們沒(méi)有時(shí)間每天預(yù)估，所以我們每?jī)蓚€(gè)星期或每個(gè)月下一次訂單2=Theotherthingisbatchingdoneindertosaveontransptationcosts.批次的第二個(gè)原因是為了節(jié)省運(yùn)輸成本3=Whichissincethederstheurgentdersaretrickledtotheplantsfromallsidestheplantm

18、ighthaveasetupespeciallyintheconsumergoodsitmighthaveahugesetuponitslinesisbatchingnowindertosavethesetups.因?yàn)榱阈堑挠唵螘?huì)來(lái)自于各地，工廠為了節(jié)省換線時(shí)間，就必須批次Whatwasthefmula公式是什么？BufferSize=AverageRecentDemInTheRederPeriodAverageRecentDemInT

19、heReSupplyPeriodAMeasureOfSafetyDBRBM(Themecomplicatedtheproblemthesimplerthesolutionmustbeotherwiseitwillnotwk.問(wèn)題愈復(fù)雜，解決方法會(huì)愈簡(jiǎn)單，否則就不會(huì)有效)Whatdowehavetochange我們要改變什么？DISTRIBUTIONSUPPLYCHAIN配銷與供應(yīng)鏈配銷與供應(yīng)鏈配銷與供應(yīng)鏈配銷與供應(yīng)鏈Butinderto

20、protectthroughputindertogiveverygoodcustomerservicewhatwehavelearnedjustnowwemustholdhighinventies.但是為了保護(hù)有效產(chǎn)出，為了提供非常好的顧客服務(wù)，我們就必須持有大量的存貨whatdoesitmeantoreducecostsItmeanstoholdlessinventies.降低成本是什么意思？意思是不要持有太多存貨Nowlookwha

21、tisthehugeconflict:fromonehsidewemustholdhighinventiesfromtheotherhsideholdlessinventies現(xiàn)在看看這個(gè)大沖突是什么：一方面我們必須持有大量的存貨，另一方面不要持有太多存貨Oneassumptionisthereplenishmenttimeislong.其中之一是：補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間很長(zhǎng)。Secondsecondassumptionisvendsareunrel

22、iable.第二個(gè)假設(shè)是：供貨商不可靠。thefecastsareinaccurate.銷售預(yù)估不準(zhǔn)確1:Identifythesystem’sconstraint.指出系統(tǒng)的限制=Thentheconstraintofthesystemisclientswhocometobuy.于是系統(tǒng)的限制就是來(lái)購(gòu)買的客戶2:Exploitthesystem’sconstraint.充分應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)的限制。Don’twasteitiftheclient

23、alreadyenteredwantedtobuysellhim.不要浪費(fèi)，如果客戶已經(jīng)進(jìn)門而且想購(gòu)買，就賣東西給他。=Exploitthesystem’sconstraintmeanshavetherightinventyintherightplaceattherighttime.充分應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)的限制，意謂著在正確的地點(diǎn)、正確的時(shí)間、持有正確的存貨3:Theproblemisinthethirdstepinsubdination.問(wèn)題在

24、于第三個(gè)步驟：配合Whatmustwedoindertohavetherightinventyintherightplaceattherighttime我們必須做什么，才能在正確的地點(diǎn)、正確的時(shí)間、持有正確的存貨=NowIhaveachoiceeitherIamincreasingtheinventyevenmeIgiveupongivinggoodcustomerserviceoneofthetwo.現(xiàn)在我要做個(gè)選擇：不是增加更多存貨

25、，就是放棄提供好的顧客服務(wù)，二者選一StepthreemeanswhatLargeholdofinventies.步驟三代表什么？持有大量的存貨Thatistheonlywayoutifyouwanttogivegoodcustomerservice.thisbringsusintoaconflict.如果你想要提供好的顧客服務(wù)，這就是唯一的方法，但是會(huì)為我們帶來(lái)沖突Wewanttomanagewell.我們想要做好管理Indertom

26、anagewellonethingisprotectthroughputgiveexcellentcustomerservice.為了做好管理，第一件事是保護(hù)有效產(chǎn)出，提供最好的顧客服務(wù)TDDThisisnumberonemeasurementfasubsystem.這是次系統(tǒng)的頭號(hào)評(píng)估方法ThatiswhyIamsuggestinganewmeasurement.所以我提出一種新的評(píng)估方法Itisnotdollarsitisnotda

27、ysitisdollardays.不是金額，也不是天數(shù)，而是天?元。Iamsuggestingsomethingcalledthroughputdollardays.我建議把它叫做有效產(chǎn)出天?元（TDD）1=Yousumupthethroughputofalltheproductsthatyouhaven’tshippedontimetimesthenumberofdaysfromreceiptofthederuntilyoushipp

28、ed.你把每張尚未準(zhǔn)時(shí)送出產(chǎn)品的有效產(chǎn)出金額乘以收到訂單的日期到你能出貨的天數(shù)，然后相加2=ifyouaretalkingaboutthatyoudon’tfulfiltheplantwarehousefexampleyouareinproductiontodernottostockthenyouhavetodothesummationofallthethroughputofthedersthatyouhaven’tfulfilledt

29、imesthenumberofdaysfromcommitmentdateuntilyoushipped.如果你說(shuō)的不是補(bǔ)工廠倉(cāng)庫(kù)，例如訂單式生產(chǎn)，不是存貨式生產(chǎn)，那么你必須把每張延誤訂單的有效產(chǎn)出金額乘以承諾日期到出貨的天數(shù)，然后相加。Inotherwdsnotfromreceiptofderbutfromcommitment.換句話說(shuō)，不是訂單收到的日期，而是承諾的日期Dollardayshasameaningdollardaysh

30、asaphysicalmeaning.天?元有個(gè)實(shí)質(zhì)的意義。Fexamplewhenyougotothebankyouaskfaloanyoudon’tpayjustbytheamountofmoneythatyoutookbutalsobythenumberofdaysuntilyoureturnit.舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，如果你今天去銀行貸款，你不只要償還借貸的金額，也要看你借了多少天。Thisisthemeaningofdollardays.

31、這就是天?元的意義。Rememberthetargetinthroughputdollardayswhichistheprimaryoneis0.要記得，主要的評(píng)估方法，TDD的目標(biāo)是0oneIhavemissedalreadythisismymeasurementyouknowwhat我已經(jīng)延誤了一張訂單，這是我的績(jī)效評(píng)估結(jié)果，你知道嗎？LetitbemissedbymeIdon’twanttomisstheothers.我繼續(xù)把它擱

32、在一旁，因?yàn)槲也幌朐傺诱`其它訂單。Isitthecrectbehavi這是正確的行為嗎？Icanlosetheclient.我可能會(huì)失去這個(gè)客戶。SoifIamtakingseriouslythatmeasurementsshouldinducethepartstodowhatisgoodfthesystemasawholethenintermsoffulfillingtheneedofthisnextlinkIhavetotakein

33、toaccountnotjustthatIfulfilleditwhatdidn’tIfulfillfhowlongdidn’tIfulfillit.如果我確信評(píng)估方法應(yīng)該引導(dǎo)每個(gè)部分去做對(duì)整體有利的事，那么為了達(dá)成供應(yīng)鏈下一環(huán)的需求，我必須考慮的不只是已達(dá)成的部分，還要加上未達(dá)成的部分和延誤的時(shí)間。InotherwdsIhavetotakeintoaccountbothdollarsdays.換句話說(shuō)，我必須同時(shí)考慮金額和天數(shù)。IDD

34、Thesecondarymeasurement次要評(píng)估方法IfwehavejustthisTDDmeasurementthenwearerunningtheriskofpeopletryingtobuildinventytotheskyindertocompensate.如果我們只有這種評(píng)估方法，人們可能會(huì)想囤積大量的存貨whatItisindertoinducepeoplenottobuildtoomuchinventy.次要評(píng)估方法

35、的目的是什么？為了引導(dǎo)人們不要囤積太多存貨Thetargethereiswhatnot0itisreducereduce.ItissummationofthevalueofalltheinventyrememberaccdingtoTOCthevalueasIsuggestisrawmaterialvalue.把所有存貨的價(jià)值相加，別忘了，根據(jù)TOC，存貨的價(jià)值就是原料的價(jià)值Theywillcomewithitletthemdebate

36、it.他們會(huì)想出方法，然后讓他們爭(zhēng)論一下。Whenpeoplestarttoundersteachonetheimpactoneachonenowtheystarttwothingsoneistheyacceptitbutsomethingmuchmetheyreallyunderstit.如果人們開(kāi)始了解對(duì)每件事的影響，現(xiàn)在他們會(huì)做兩件事：一個(gè)是接受，另一個(gè)是充分理解。Butwestillhavetotalkaboutthemeasu

37、rementsfthewholesupplychain.但是我們還是要討論整條供應(yīng)鏈的評(píng)估方法Whybecausemanytimesasupplychainisnotcomposedofsubsystemsbutitiscomposedofdifferentganizationswholesystems.為什么呢？很多時(shí)候供應(yīng)鏈不是由次系統(tǒng)所組成，而是由不同的組織、完整的系統(tǒng)所組成的。Eachoneofthemhavetheirgoal

38、ofnotmakingmoneyfthechainasawholebutmakingmoneyftheircompany.每個(gè)組織或系統(tǒng)的目標(biāo)不是讓整條供應(yīng)鏈賺錢，而是讓自己的公司賺錢。Therealproblemiscomingwiththroughput.真正的問(wèn)題在有效產(chǎn)出therearetwomajquestionsregardinghowdowemeasurethroughputinasupplychain.我們?cè)诤饬抗?yīng)鏈的

39、有效產(chǎn)出時(shí)，會(huì)出現(xiàn)兩個(gè)主要的問(wèn)題。Oneisthequestionwhendidthesaletakeplace一個(gè)問(wèn)題是：銷售發(fā)生在什么時(shí)點(diǎn)？Thetime.時(shí)間。Theotherquestioniswhatisthevalueofthesale另一個(gè)問(wèn)題是：售價(jià)是多少？5:Whatistheimpactonthewaytheplanttriestoreducesetup對(duì)于想減少換線的工廠，會(huì)造成什么影響呢？Batching.批次化

40、。becauseofthisbatchingreactionffullproductstakenatthesametimefromthebufferisnowlonger.由于這種批次反應(yīng)，同時(shí)間內(nèi)要在緩沖拿到所有的產(chǎn)品需要比較久的時(shí)間6:Whatistheimpactonthewaytheplantistryingtoimprovequality對(duì)于想改善質(zhì)量的工廠，會(huì)造成什么影響？Youshippedsomethingthatisd

41、amagedsomethingwhichisnotgoodqualityyouhaven’tdeliveredatall.你送出某樣損壞的、質(zhì)量不好的產(chǎn)品，那么你根本就沒(méi)有出貨Howtostart如何開(kāi)始呢？aslongastheenduserhasn’tboughtwehavenotsold.只要最終使用者尚未購(gòu)買，我們就沒(méi)有賣出商品。thisshouldbestuckinourheads.所以這一點(diǎn)我們應(yīng)該銘記在心。OkSowhen

42、isthetimeofthesaleWhentheenduserhavebought.好嗎？所以，什么時(shí)候才叫銷售？最終使用者購(gòu)買后才叫銷售。Nowremembertodaycompaniescannotaffdit.現(xiàn)在要記得，今天的公司無(wú)法負(fù)擔(dān)得起這種觀念。WhyBecausetheleadtimeissolongthatwecannotaffdit.為什么呢？前置時(shí)間太長(zhǎng)，所以我們負(fù)擔(dān)不起。Butitshouldbe:Iwants

43、omuchpercentoftheendpriceprovidedthatIamnotgettingbelowthisamountofmoneyftheproduct.而應(yīng)該是：除了這個(gè)基本的金額之外，我想要得到最終產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的多少百分比。4：Butthenwedon’tcomparethemononeyearperfmancewearecomparingthemonhowmuchtheyimprovedfromoneyeartotheo

44、ther.但是我們不比較兩家工廠一年的表現(xiàn)，我們比較他們每一年改善的情況如何。Anyhowwehavetodoit.BecauseeverybodyknowsthattolookononeyearbalancesheetPIfwehavetheplantwarehousenowtellmehowamIgoingtoschedule現(xiàn)在，如果我們有了工廠倉(cāng)庫(kù)，我要怎么安排排程呢？Theroadrunnertechnique.Remembe

45、rstillsessionone2:NextquestionwhendoIexpedite下一個(gè)問(wèn)題：我什么時(shí)候應(yīng)該趕工？WhentheconsumptionwassomuchthatIconsumedtheregionaloneinotherwdsIhaveleftlessthan13ofwhatIwanttohold.ThenIexpediteevenifitmeansbreakingasetup.如果存貨少于我想持有數(shù)量的三分之一