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1、Davos Takes a Fresh Look at Emerging Markets,Davos Takes a Fresh Look at Emerging Markets,仇朝陽,肖莉芹,牛力,PPT模板下載:www.1ppt.com/moban/ 行業(yè)PPT模板:www.1ppt.
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4、pt.com/jiaoan/ PPT論壇:www.1ppt.cn,1,Ever since emerging markets became a major asset class inthe early 1990s, a parade of (一群…)potentates(當權(quán)者),&
5、#160;policy makers and corporate chieftains(企業(yè)負責人) have flocked to the stylish village of Davos in the Swiss Alps in the hope
6、;of becoming the latest global meme(文化基因).The growth revolution in China, the emergence of oil-driven sovereign wealth in the Middle
7、160;East and Brazil’s econom-ic miracle have all been celebrated, one time or another, by the global elites who gather at
8、0;the World Economic Forum in Davos each January to ponder the world.From 2000 on, the Davos boom and the emerging mark
9、ets boom have been pretty much one and the same, a living ideal of globalization helped by central banks that have
10、;printed trilli-ons of dollars of new money.,,,,,,,,,But now, as interest rates in the United States begin to rise, these dol
11、lars have begun to flow out of China, the Middle East and Latin America. Growth rates are stumbling, debt levels rising&
12、#160;and geopolitical fears spreading.,But now, as interest rates in the United States begin to rise, these dollars have be
13、gun to flow out of China, the Middle Eastand Latin America. Growth rates are stumbling(障礙的), debt levelsrising and geopolitical fears
14、0;sprea-ding.,Over the last year, the exod-us(大批離去) has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its cu
15、rrency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.,And many now say that this rosy, D
16、avos-fueled notion of a world powered by emerging-market growth and innovation needs to be reconsidered.Over the last year, the
17、160;exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop
18、60;to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.,And many now say that this rosy, Davos-fueled notion of a world po
19、wered by emerging-market growth and innovation needs to be reconsidered.Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed
20、0;by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s&
21、#160;problems will worsen.,And many now say that this rosy, Davos-fueled notion of a world powered by emerging-market growth and
22、160;innovation needs to be reconsidered.Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will los
23、e control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.,Over the l
24、ast year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of o
25、il will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.,Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed
26、60;by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s
27、 problems will worsen.,And many now say that thisrosy, Davos fueled notion of a world powered by emerging market growth and in
28、novation needs to be reconsidered.,“I have long maintained that the emerging-market hype was over-sold when it was clear that wh
29、at was going on was high commodity prices and cheap money,” said Dani Rodrik, an expert on globalization at the Harvard Ke
30、nnedy School.,WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM,,As for the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said that over the last 10 years it had be
31、come an echo chamber of sorts.“What we are seeing now is lower growth and policy conflicts between the emerging and
32、 the developed world,“ said Mr. Rodrik, who will not be making the trip this time around. “It is going to
33、 be a different type of Davos this year.”Actually, the echo chamber has not been working as advertised. Since January 20
34、10, emerging markets as an investment have produced a poor return. BlackRocks benchmark exchange traded fund(新興市場股票交易所基準指數(shù))for emerging
35、;market stocks is down 25 percent, and most of that decline came in the last year.,2,Perhaps the biggest sign that global
36、60;investors have lost faith is that for the first time since 1988 (when only the bravest souls invested in these countr
37、ies), investors have pulled more money out of emerging markets than they have put in, according to research by the Insti
38、tute of International Finance.,Perhaps the biggest sign that global investors have lost faith is that for the first time sinc
39、e 1988 (when only the bravest souls invested in these countries), investors have pulled more money out of emerging markets t
40、han they have put in, according to res-earch by the Institute of International Finance(國際金融研究所). In an unusually blunt (直白的)speech
41、 in Paris this month, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund(國際貨幣基金組織), said that emerging nations nee
42、ded a new model for growth after years of relying on easy money(寬松的貨幣政策) and high commodity prices(大宗商品價格).,International Mo
43、netary Fund (IMF) (國際貨幣基金組織),The IMF, also known as the Fund, was conceived at a UN conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, in July 1944. The 44 countries
44、 at that conference sought to build a framework for economic cooperation to avoid repetition of the competitive devaluations that had contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s。 The IMF's primary purpose
45、 is to ensure the stability of the international monetary system—the system of exchange rates and international payments that enables countries (and their citizens) to transact with each other. The Fund's man
46、date was updated in 2012,which includes all macroeconomic and financial sector issues.,Easy money(寬松的貨幣政策) The purpose of easy monetary policy is to increase the supply of overall market money, by pri
47、nting money directly ,buying bonds on the open market, reducing the reserve ratio (準備金率)and loan interest rates, and so on .When money supply increased, it's easier for businesses and individuals to borrow more loan
48、s. High commodity (大宗商品) It refers to large quantities of merchandise,which is widely used in industrial and agricultural production and consumption. In financial markets, commodities refers to indus
49、trial raw material with great homogeneity, and can be traded easily, such as crude oil, non-ferrous metals, steel, agricultural products and coal. It includes three categories, including energy commodities, basic materi
50、als and agricultural products.,Perhaps the biggest sign that global investors have lost faith is that for the first time since 1988
51、0;(when only the bravest souls invested in these countries), investors have pulled more money out of emerging markets than th
52、ey have put in, according to research by the Institute of International Finance.,“Growth rates are down, and cyclical(周期的)and stru
53、ctural forces have undermined (削弱) the traditional growth paradigm(范式),” Ms. Lagarde said. Moreover, she warned, the dollar’s continued strength against just
54、; about all emerging-market currencies could well result in a new round of financial uncertainty pushing commodity prices and global growth forecasts
55、even lower.,WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM,,,,,,,,,But now, as interest rates in the United States begin to rise, these dollars have begun to
56、0;flow out of China, the Middle East and Latin America. Growth rates are stumbling, debt levels rising and geopolitical fears
57、 spreading.,Since mid-2011, the dollar has gained more than 100 percent against emerging-marketcurrencies in Turkey, Brazil and South
58、 Africa.,“Our own estimates show that a slowdown of 1 percent in the emerging world would lower growth in advanced count
59、ries by at least about 0.2 percentage points,” Ms. Lagarde said.,And many now say that this rosy, Davos-fueled notion of
60、 a world powered by emerging-market growth and innovation needs to be reconsidered.Over the last year, the exodus has gather
61、ed pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barr
62、el and Brazil’s problems will worsen.,And many now say that this rosy, Davos-fueled notion of a world powered by emerging-mar
63、ket growth and innovation needs to be reconsidered.Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that
64、0;China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will wo
65、rsen.,And many now say that this rosy, Davos-fueled notion of a world powered by emerging-market growth and innovation needs
66、to be reconsidered.Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its
67、 currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.,Over the last year, the ex
68、odus has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to&
69、#160;$20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.,Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that
70、60;China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will w
71、orsen.,Still, even with the gloom and doom surrounding emerging markets these days, there is little si-gn that standard bearers
72、160;are forgoing their annual week in the Swiss mountains.,This year, more than 320 representatives from Brazil, Russia, India
73、60;and China — the so-called BRIC community of emerging nations — will be in Davos — compared with 237 from
74、0;these countries in 2010.,WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM,,None of these representatives will be heads of state, though. In the past, Brazilian presidents and Vladimir Putin of Russia have led their countries’ delegation
75、s(代表團).This year, Russia is sending a deputy prime minister(副總理), Yury Trutnev, while China is sending a vice president, Li Yuanchao. Two large emerging markets that have been under significant stress of late wi
76、ll be sending their leaders. Turkey, recently rocked(襲擊) by terrorist attacks, will be represented by its prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu Amit. And the South African president, Jacob Zuma, who has gone through three fina
77、nce ministers in the last five weeks, is also planning to show up.,WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM,,The president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, whose popularity polls(民意調(diào)查) have sunk to (下跌至)single digits(個位數(shù)), will not be making an a
78、ppearance, but her recently appointed finance minister, Nelson Henrique Barbosa-Filho, is scheduled to attend. Ready to engage in(從事) some damage control will be the top executives at BTG Pactual(巴西投資銀行百達集團), the
79、 Brazilian investment bank whose former chief executive, André Esteves, is under investigation(接受調(diào)查) for corruption.,3,In terms of panels(會議) themed for developing nation, the Wo
80、rld Economic Forum will be serving up the usual fare this year. One will explore how companies in emerging markets cope with l
81、aws that discriminate against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender workers. Another is more straightforward: What will the impact of higher&
82、#160;interest rates in the United States be on emerging market growth?But, as is always the case at the World Economic
83、Forum , the meetings of genuine consequence will be the ones that you do not know are happening.,WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM,,That could mean Laurence
84、 D. Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, the world’s largest money management firm(資產(chǎn)管理公司), sitting down with Jean-Paul Vill
85、ain, an executive at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authori-ty(阿布扎比投資局) or Fahadal- Mubarak, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s central bank(沙特阿拉伯央行行長)and&
86、#160;overseer(監(jiān)督者) of the country’s $650 billion foreign reserve stash(美元外匯儲備).,WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM,,As oil prices sink, rumors have been rife
87、 that Middle East sovereign wealth funds — and Saudi Arabia in particular — have been calling in the billions of dolla
88、rs of cash that they have allocat-ed to global investment firms such as BlackRock. And traders say that the withdrawal
89、(撤資)of these funds, much of which has been invested in American stocks and bonds, has been a contributing factor to recently
90、 volatile (動蕩,不穩(wěn)定)markets.,Or the chief executives of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase could wind up (結(jié)束)huddling(擁擠,混亂) with Fang
91、;Xinghai, the vice chairman of the China securities regulatory commission(證監(jiān)會). The sharp swings (波動)in China’s stock market are
92、having an outsize effect on markets in the United States, and the big American investment banks will want to hear what&
93、#160;Mr. Fang’s strategy is for 2016.But as central bankers, prime ministers and chief executives wrestle(努力做)this week to make s
94、ense of it all, Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management(摩根士丹利投資管理公司), has a fairly simple
95、 explanation: The impact on the developed world of a slowdown in China and other emerging markets is going to be g
96、reater than most people realize.,,,,“This is a big deal. (舉足輕重) What happens in China has an effect on the wider world, and I
97、0;think that the Davos crowd(與會者) has been slow to recognize this.”,,WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM,“In 1997, the emerging world’s share of the
98、 global economy was 20 percent——now, it’s about 40 percent,” he said.,THANKYOU,2016,The World Economic Forum is a Swiss nonprofit foundation . Recognized by t
99、he Swiss authorities as the international institution for public-private cooperation , it’s mission is cited as “committed to improving the state by engaging business, political , academic, and other leaders of society t
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