鎳月度報(bào)告宏觀利空影 響，滬鎳高位回調(diào)

1、1有色金屬有色金屬研究研究鎳月報(bào)鎳月報(bào)研究研究請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)的重要聲明目錄目錄一、行情綜述一、行情綜述...........................................................................................................................................................2二、價(jià)格影響因素分析二、價(jià)

2、格影響因素分析...........................................................................................................................................21、宏觀面....................................................................

3、.....................................................................................21.1國(guó)外：貿(mào)易局勢(shì)仍緊張，美元高位運(yùn)行.........................................................................................21.2國(guó)內(nèi)：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力繼續(xù)顯現(xiàn)，官方釋放出

4、積極信號(hào).........................................................32、基本面.........................................................................................................................................................

5、42.1全球鎳供應(yīng)仍然短缺........................................................................................................................42.2鎳礦供應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)寬松...........................................................................

6、.................................................52.3鎳鐵企業(yè)產(chǎn)量仍難恢復(fù)....................................................................................................................52.4電解鎳產(chǎn)量小幅減少............................

7、............................................................................................62.5不銹鋼消費(fèi)整體疲軟...................................................................................................................

8、.....62.6持倉(cāng)分析............................................................................................................................................7三、行情展望與投資策略三、行情展望與投資策略............................................

9、...........................................................................................7圖目錄圖目錄圖1：NI1809盤面走勢(shì).............................................................................................................

10、......................2圖2：鎳現(xiàn)貨走勢(shì)............................................................................................................................................2圖3：美元指數(shù).........................................

11、.......................................................................................................3圖4：美國(guó)CPI............................................................................................................

12、.....................................3圖5：PMI.........................................................................................................................................................3圖6：CPI與PPI............

13、..................................................................................................................................3圖7：WBMS供需平衡（萬(wàn)噸）..........................................................................

14、.........................................4圖8：鎳礦進(jìn)口(噸)..........................................................................................................................................4圖9：鎳鐵進(jìn)口（噸）...................

15、.................................................................................................................5圖10：鎳鐵產(chǎn)量..................................................................................................

16、............................................5圖11：鎳鐵開(kāi)工率..........................................................................................................................................5圖12：鎳鐵報(bào)價(jià)（元噸，元鎳點(diǎn)）...........

17、.................................................................................................5圖13：電解鎳產(chǎn)量.................................................................................................................

18、.........................6圖14：鎳進(jìn)口盈虧..........................................................................................................................................6圖15：不銹鋼現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格（元噸）...............................

19、..................................................................................6圖16：不銹鋼庫(kù)存（噸）.............................................................................................................................

20、.6圖17：家電產(chǎn)量..............................................................................................................................................7圖18：固定資產(chǎn)投資.........................................................

21、.............................................................................73有色金屬有色金屬研究研究鎳月報(bào)鎳月報(bào)研究研究請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)的重要聲明0.4%；同比增2.1%，預(yù)期增2.2%，前值增2.5%。歐元區(qū)7月調(diào)和CPI同比升2.1%，預(yù)期升2%，前值升2%；核心調(diào)和CPI同比初值升1.1%，預(yù)期升1%，前值升0.9%。歐央行決定維持每月300億歐元購(gòu)債

22、規(guī)模至2018年9月，9月后將每月購(gòu)債規(guī)模降至150億歐元，確認(rèn)在12月底停止凈資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買計(jì)劃；只要有必要，就將對(duì)到期債券進(jìn)行再投資，再投資將一直持續(xù)到QE結(jié)束后很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。歐央行行長(zhǎng)德拉吉表示，目前仍需要大量寬松，如果有必要，準(zhǔn)備好調(diào)整所有的政策工具。總的來(lái)說(shuō)，目前美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)向好，使得美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)后續(xù)加息有較好的基礎(chǔ)，年內(nèi)四次加息的預(yù)期仍然較強(qiáng)。歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍顯疲軟，歐央行偏鴿態(tài)度未改。但美元目前已處于相對(duì)高位，上方空間有限，預(yù)計(jì)美元8月或

23、在高位運(yùn)行。圖3：美元美元指數(shù)指數(shù)圖4：美國(guó)美國(guó)CPI數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，中信建投期貨中信建投期貨數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，中信建投期貨中信建投期貨1.2國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)內(nèi)：宏觀宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力下行壓力繼續(xù)顯現(xiàn)繼續(xù)顯現(xiàn)，官方釋放官方釋放出積極信號(hào)出積極信號(hào)圖5：PMI圖6：CPI與PPI數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，中信建投期貨中信建投期貨數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，中信建投期貨中信建投期貨上月國(guó)內(nèi)宏觀數(shù)據(jù)整體承壓，國(guó)內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)

24、濟(jì)下行壓力繼續(xù)顯現(xiàn)。中國(guó)二季度GDP同比增長(zhǎng)6.7%，預(yù)期6.7%，一季度增速為6.8%。上半年GDP同比增6.8%，2018年增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)設(shè)為6.5%左右。中國(guó)上半年固定資產(chǎn)投資同比增長(zhǎng)6.0%，預(yù)期6.0%，15月增速為6.1%。中國(guó)6月規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值同比增長(zhǎng)6%，預(yù)期6.5%，前值6.8%；上半年工業(yè)增加值增長(zhǎng)6.7%，增速較15月回落0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。8486889092949698美元指數(shù)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.