pc紙杯公司市場需求預(yù)測案例討論

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14、xcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmPC紙杯案例討論與分析組員：陸佳宇韓丹丹李薇陳燕翟娜周青云20141028星期二VAIO德爾菲法：公司可以請專家就公司現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行咨詢；部門主管集體討論，召集所有部門、搜集相關(guān)資料進(jìn)行討論；用戶調(diào)查法，詢問并記錄銷售商、用戶等的意見、建議銷售人員意見匯集法，各地區(qū)的銷售人員根據(jù)個人的判斷或與地區(qū)有關(guān)部門交換意見并判斷后作出預(yù)測

15、2、定量預(yù)測法、定量預(yù)測法定量預(yù)測法又稱為統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)測法，其主要特點(diǎn)是利用統(tǒng)計(jì)資料和數(shù)學(xué)模型來進(jìn)行預(yù)測。然而，這并不意味著定量方法完全排除主觀因素，相反，主觀判斷在定量方法中仍起著重要的作用，只不過它與定性方法相比，各種主觀因素所起的作用小一些罷了。定量預(yù)測法可分為因果模型和時間序列模型，時間序列還可進(jìn)一步細(xì)分。時間序列平滑型（移動平均法、一次指數(shù)平滑法、二次指數(shù)平滑法）時間序列分解型（乘法模型、加法模型）綜合上述方法，將PC紙杯公司的需求

16、預(yù)測轉(zhuǎn)化為定性問題，再通過討論以及以往模型給定的數(shù)據(jù)確定產(chǎn)品的權(quán)重，最后由時間序列模型和因果關(guān)系模型兩種主要的定量預(yù)測方法分析結(jié)果，得出PC紙杯公司需求量的預(yù)測值。二、王濟(jì)華的需求預(yù)測工作是否恰當(dāng)二、王濟(jì)華的需求預(yù)測工作是否恰當(dāng)合理：第一、王濟(jì)華是通過對公司各部門近十年數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析匯總并建立數(shù)學(xué)模型、繪制圖表來預(yù)測下一月份的需求量；而且考慮到了相關(guān)商品及因素對紙杯需求量的影響；第二、他根據(jù)冰激凌消費(fèi)量與典型紙杯的相關(guān)需求量作出相關(guān)折線圖