機(jī)械行業(yè)2019年度投資策略2019靜待春華

1、：證監(jiān)許可（20目錄一、機(jī)械行業(yè)需求來(lái)自于下游投資.........................................................................................................................7（一）政策敏感：基建房地產(chǎn)能源主要受政策影響..................................................8

2、（二）市場(chǎng)敏感：制造業(yè)擴(kuò)張需求和擴(kuò)張能力決定資本開(kāi)支周期.......................................81、ROE有望繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，制造業(yè)仍處于擴(kuò)張期.....................................................82、不同行業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資增速進(jìn)入不同階段.....................................................11二、

3、看好機(jī)械行業(yè)四大方向的投資機(jī)遇................................................................................................................17（一）軌交裝備——受益基建補(bǔ)短板，軌交投資有望再上調(diào)..........................................17（二）工程機(jī)械——存量項(xiàng)目加速推進(jìn)，工程機(jī)

4、械景氣周期延長(zhǎng)......................................22（三）油服行業(yè)——兩段不同的投資邏輯，國(guó)內(nèi)油氣增長(zhǎng)確定性更高..................................251、進(jìn)口依賴度過(guò)高，油氣資源接續(xù)能力不足，我國(guó)能源安全面臨巨大挑戰(zhàn)...........................262、油服需求由油氣公司資本開(kāi)支及上游勘探開(kāi)發(fā)支出占比決定.................

5、....................27（四）高端產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)，或?qū)⑼瑫r(shí)在中國(guó)發(fā)生..........................................291、半導(dǎo)體——行業(yè)景氣程度向上，設(shè)備需求復(fù)蘇.................................................302、顯示面板——國(guó)內(nèi)顯示面板迎投資高峰，設(shè)備率先受益.............................

6、............373、工業(yè)機(jī)器人——產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)自動(dòng)化大勢(shì)所趨，行業(yè)景氣國(guó)產(chǎn)化替代加速.............................40三、建議關(guān)注公司.......................................................................................................................................

7、.........43（一）軌交裝備................................................................................431、中國(guó)中車(chē)：軌交裝備王者，主業(yè)強(qiáng)勢(shì)回歸，國(guó)際化提供長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)空間.............................43（二）工程機(jī)械..................................................

8、..............................441、三一重工：工程機(jī)械行業(yè)龍頭，營(yíng)收持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，盈利彈性以及經(jīng)營(yíng)情況改善.......................442、恒立液壓：盈利能力提升，泵閥業(yè)務(wù)快速放量，費(fèi)用率顯著下降.................................44（三）能源裝備........................................................

9、........................451、中海油服：油價(jià)回暖，海油經(jīng)濟(jì)性拐點(diǎn)顯現(xiàn)，海上油服龍頭有望受益.............................452、杰瑞股份：民營(yíng)油服龍頭有望受益行業(yè)崛起...................................................463、石化機(jī)械：跨越油價(jià)震蕩期，設(shè)備龍頭迎來(lái)確定性增長(zhǎng)空間.............................

10、........46（四）泛自動(dòng)化行業(yè)............................................................................471、中環(huán)股份：大硅片業(yè)務(wù)厚積薄發(fā)，半導(dǎo)體材料龍頭乘風(fēng)起航.....................................472、北方華創(chuàng)：IC前道制造設(shè)備龍頭，設(shè)備布局完善，已實(shí)現(xiàn)批量應(yīng)用........................

11、......473、精測(cè)電子：國(guó)內(nèi)面板檢測(cè)龍頭，未來(lái)料將向半導(dǎo)體進(jìn)軍.........................................484、克來(lái)機(jī)電：專(zhuān)注汽車(chē)領(lǐng)域，在細(xì)分市場(chǎng)有優(yōu)勢(shì).................................................49（五）傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí).............................................................

12、...............501、杭氧股份：空分設(shè)備工業(yè)氣體運(yùn)營(yíng)龍頭，下游回暖公司設(shè)備、氣體業(yè)務(wù)雙超預(yù)期..................502、華測(cè)檢測(cè)：第三方民營(yíng)檢測(cè)龍頭，享受檢測(cè)行業(yè)千億市場(chǎng)空間...................................50：證監(jiān)許可（20圖表332018年基建投資增速下滑，房屋新開(kāi)工面積增速維持高位......................................23圖

13、表34小松開(kāi)機(jī)小時(shí)數(shù)...........................................................................23圖表35近期政策梳理.............................................................................23圖表36近期政策梳理..................................

14、...........................................24圖表37挖機(jī)行業(yè)集中度提升.......................................................................25圖表38挖機(jī)行業(yè)國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌份額提升.................................................................25圖表39油服

15、行業(yè)投資邏輯推演.....................................................................25圖表40我國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量連續(xù)兩年錄得下降.............................................................26圖表41三桶油勘探開(kāi)發(fā)資本支出呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì).......................................

16、................26圖表42三桶油原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)（億噸）...............................................................26圖表43我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣產(chǎn)量趨勢(shì)（億方）...........................................................26圖表44三桶油總資本支出規(guī)劃（億元）......................

17、.......................................27圖表45中石油2018H1資本支出拆分...............................................................27圖表46中石油勘探開(kāi)發(fā)資本支出預(yù)測(cè)（億元）.......................................................28圖表47主要油服公司業(yè)務(wù)梳理...

18、..................................................................28圖表48歷史上發(fā)生的幾次產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移.................................................................29圖表49韓國(guó)不同制造業(yè)對(duì)實(shí)際GDP同比增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng).............................................

19、.....29圖表50中國(guó)將同時(shí)發(fā)生向高端新興產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展及傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)自動(dòng)化升級(jí)..............................................30圖表51日、韓、臺(tái)半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展離不開(kāi)政府的支持.................................................31圖表52《綱要》提出的發(fā)展目標(biāo)及政策支持........................................

20、.................31圖表53大基金部分投資項(xiàng)目.......................................................................32圖表54一期大基金投資領(lǐng)域分布...................................................................32圖表55國(guó)內(nèi)在建規(guī)劃中的12寸晶圓廠.............

21、................................................32圖表56全球半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備銷(xiāo)售額(億美元）............................................................33圖表57已進(jìn)入量產(chǎn)產(chǎn)線的28nm設(shè)備...............................................................33圖表58已進(jìn)

22、入產(chǎn)線進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證的14nm設(shè)備...........................................................33圖表59半導(dǎo)體硅片供需失衡.......................................................................34圖表6012寸硅片需求（萬(wàn)片月）...........................................

23、.......................35圖表618寸硅片需求（萬(wàn)片月）...................................................................35圖表6212寸硅片下游需求（萬(wàn)片月）..............................................................35圖表6312寸硅片下游需求增速..............

24、......................................................35圖表648寸硅片下游需求（萬(wàn)片月）...............................................................36圖表658寸硅片下游需求增速....................................................................