地產(chǎn)行業(yè)改革開 放四十周年系列研究地產(chǎn)篇，四十年風(fēng)雨改革路，行業(yè)在變革中前行

1、正文目錄前言...............................................................................................................................7一、19781997：房改萌芽、探索、試點(diǎn)到深化..............................................................

2、91.1房改萌芽、探索與試點(diǎn)（19781988）.......................................................................91.2改革深化、推進(jìn)階段（19911997）.........................................................................11二、19982003：步入全面商品化階段，漸成國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)

3、支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)...................................132.1步入全面商品化階段，多因素為樓市騰飛助力..........................................................132.2樓市量升價(jià)穩(wěn)，漸成國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)....................................................................16三、2004

4、2013：地產(chǎn)黃金時(shí)代，調(diào)控大幕徐徐開啟.....................................................193.1多因素鑄就地產(chǎn)黃金十年..........................................................................................193.2“831”土改加劇供給不足預(yù)期，房?jī)r(jià)步入上漲快車道...........

5、..........................................233.3調(diào)控大幕徐徐開啟，地產(chǎn)股投資陷入政策博弈..........................................................26四、2014——：周期輪回與行業(yè)新生...........................................................................

6、284.1政策周期再度輪回，投資銷售創(chuàng)歷史新高.................................................................284.2從“研究”到“建立”，長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制漸成政策重心..............................................................284.2中小房企退出與龍頭多元化布局，強(qiáng)者恒強(qiáng)趨勢(shì)延續(xù)................

7、...............................31五、萬科——改革見證者，把握周期奠定業(yè)界龍頭.......................................................325.11998年前：摸索中前行，逐步確立住宅開發(fā)主業(yè).....................................................345.219982008：專注住宅開發(fā)，與行業(yè)共成長(zhǎng)..

8、.............................................................355.320092014：從全國(guó)化到海外布局，規(guī)模持續(xù)上臺(tái)階................................................375.42015年至今：規(guī)模護(hù)城河已筑，多元化布局成效初現(xiàn)..............................................39六、

9、行業(yè)展望與投資建議..............................................................................................416.1地產(chǎn)中期需求仍將維持較高水平...............................................................................416.2盈利能力中樞回歸，品質(zhì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)漸

10、成核心....................................................................426.3地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)中期仍將為房企主要業(yè)績(jī)貢獻(xiàn)....................................................................436.4投資建議..................................................

11、.................................................................43七、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示................................................................................................................43圖表352013年前居民具有加杠桿空間..............

12、..................................................................21圖表3620042013年個(gè)人貸款余額增速飆升......................................................................22圖表3720042013年銷售面積增長(zhǎng)242%..................................

13、.........................................22圖表3820042013年房地產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)554%.......................................................................22圖表39A股上市房企毛利率最高超38%.............................................................

14、................23圖表402007年牛市高點(diǎn)主流房企PE超50倍...................................................................23圖表411994年分稅制改革后地方財(cái)政收入大幅下降..........................................................23圖表42土地出讓收入為地產(chǎn)政府財(cái)政收入重要來源..

15、..........................................................24圖表432004年“831大限”后招拍掛占比逐步上升........................................................24圖表44“831大限”帶來2005年地價(jià)大幅上漲....................................................

16、...........25圖表4520042005年商品房銷售均價(jià)年漲幅持續(xù)超過15%................................................25圖表46擁有資源和資金的房企上漲明顯（20032006）.....................................................26圖表472007年投資客占比達(dá)39.5%........................

17、...........................................................26圖表482003年央行“121”文和國(guó)務(wù)院“18號(hào)”文開啟調(diào)控大幕..................................27圖表492014年以前政策呈現(xiàn)三年一周期的輪回.................................................................27

18、圖表50政策預(yù)期對(duì)地產(chǎn)成交及估值影響傳導(dǎo)鏈條...............................................................27圖表512014年來地產(chǎn)銷售及投資再創(chuàng)新高........................................................................28圖表52去庫(kù)存背景下三四線銷售優(yōu)于全國(guó)（2017年來）...........

19、........................................28圖表532014年政府關(guān)于長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制的表態(tài)............................................................................28圖表542015年來租賃市場(chǎng)相關(guān)政策及表態(tài)...........................................................

20、.............30圖表55多方參與長(zhǎng)租公寓布局............................................................................................30圖表562014年來部分退出地產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)型的上市房企.................................................................31圖表57TOP

21、10市占率持續(xù)攀升...........................................................................................31圖表58開發(fā)商注重規(guī)模同時(shí)關(guān)注多元化布局.......................................................................32圖表59部分主流房企開始多元化布局........

22、.........................................................................32圖表60主流房企成立時(shí)間...................................................................................................32圖表6119922017年萬科營(yíng)收復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)26.6%......

23、.............................................................33圖表6219922017年萬科凈利潤(rùn)復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)27.1%...............................................................33圖表632001年至今銷售額年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)37.2%.........................................

24、...........................33圖表64改革開放以來萬科與行業(yè)共成長(zhǎng)..............................................................................34圖表65萬科逐步確立以城市大眾住宅開發(fā)為主導(dǎo)業(yè)務(wù)........................................................35圖表66逐步聚焦三大核

25、心城市圈.........................................................................................35圖表67三大核心城市群銷售面積占比80%以上..................................................................36圖表68三大核心城市群銷售收入占比90%左右.............

26、.....................................................36圖表69萬科2006年后管理費(fèi)用率顯著下降........................................................................36圖表70萬科20012007年間資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率處于高位.............................................