電氣設備行業(yè)回歸產(chǎn)業(yè)本源，抓住升級紅利

1、目錄新能源車：全球電芯頭部效應加強，電芯升級材料體系全面跟進...................................3下游：全球禁售燃油車風起，中國雙積分為后續(xù)發(fā)展助力.....................................3銷量：中國全年銷量預計輕松突破百萬輛..................................................4電芯：中日韓三國鼎立，韓國高鎳電池量產(chǎn)時點后

2、延.........................................6正極：高鎳趨勢臨近，壁壘提升將導致格局優(yōu)化...........................................13負極：負極格局穩(wěn)定，布局石墨化提升盈利...............................................16電解液：降價洗牌集中度提升，價格觸底預期向好.....................

3、....................17隔膜：濕法隔膜集中度提升，后續(xù)競爭仍然激烈...........................................18投資建議：鎖定電芯及材料龍頭，關注產(chǎn)業(yè)升級及海外供應鏈紅利............................19光伏：短期預期轉(zhuǎn)好機會再現(xiàn)，長期把握技術(shù)升級主線..........................................20政策：預期

4、轉(zhuǎn)好，機會再現(xiàn)強烈看多.....................................................20裝機：國內(nèi)持續(xù)超預期，海外市場發(fā)展迅猛...............................................20價格：沖擊已過，未來看好高效單晶.....................................................21產(chǎn)能：優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)能大舉擴張....

5、...........................................................23投資建議：關注各環(huán)節(jié)龍頭，強烈推薦硅料、單晶硅片與電池環(huán)節(jié)............................25風電：配額與競價開啟成長新時代...........................................................27政策：政策落地，配額競價時代開啟........

6、............................................27空間：破解棄風與搶裝周期，行業(yè)重回成長時代...........................................30價格：風機招標均價觸底回升，上游原材料見頂回落........................................32投資建議：關注下游中游龍頭，精選上游零部件......................

7、.....................32電力設備：特高壓帶來年超千億投資，電力設備重回景氣周期....................................34投資建議：推薦設備供應商，長期關注配網(wǎng)投資機會........................................34風險分析...............................................................

8、..................35請參閱最后一頁的重要聲明圖表40：組件封裝成本占比增加............................................................23圖表41：預計未來組件價格將進一步下降（元W）...........................................23圖表42：全球主要硅料產(chǎn)能統(tǒng)計（萬噸）........................

9、............................23圖表43：2018年19月硅料進口情況（噸）..................................................24圖表44：全球單晶與多晶硅片產(chǎn)能（GW）..................................................24圖表45：全球硅片產(chǎn)能統(tǒng)計（GW）...........................

10、.............................24圖表46：中國主要PERC產(chǎn)能統(tǒng)計（GW）..................................................24圖表47：光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈技術(shù)發(fā)展趨勢圖........................................................25圖表48：配額制第三次征求意見稿約束性指標折算風電新增裝機量（假設非水電量缺口的一

11、半由風電裝機滿足）.................................................................................28圖表49：全國風電利用小時數(shù)與棄風率......................................................28圖表50：此前紅六省最新棄風率.......................................

12、.....................28圖表51：陸上風電標桿電價................................................................29圖表52：海上風電標桿電價................................................................29圖表53：海上風電競價價格與競價得分圖....................

13、................................29圖表54：陸上風電競價價格與競價得分圖....................................................29圖表55：十三五規(guī)劃海上風電目標..........................................................30圖表56：地方政府海上風電規(guī)劃目標....................

14、....................................30圖表57：中國風電裝機歷史................................................................31圖表58：中國風力發(fā)電量及占比............................................................31圖表59：季度公開招標容量（GW）.........

15、...............................................31圖表60：金風月度公開投標均價（元kW）..................................................32圖表61：環(huán)氧樹脂與中厚板價格變化（元噸）.................................................32圖表62：風電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈.................