凱度-2018洞見媒體年度分享會暨genz白皮書

1、,1,,,,,互聯(lián)之力 洞見媒體,Getting media rightThe Power of Connectivity,Jane Ostler凱度洞察全球媒體業(yè)務負責人Global Head of Media Insights Division at Kantar,2,,,互聯(lián)之力The Power of Connectivity,,2,,,,High,High,Low,Great Communication,Meani

2、ngfully Different,,+187%,,,,,,,,,,,,有效溝通能加速品牌成長Strong communication accelerates brand growth,,,,41,,,衡量營銷投資因此對品牌至關(guān)重要,Measuringmarketing investment is critical,Data source: Connect,,,Global average,,,China average,,在中

3、國市場需要更多的媒介觸點構(gòu)建品牌影響力In China, more touchpoints are needed to build brand impact,,,,,80%impact,20% of touchpoints,60% of touchpoints,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,Data source: Kantar Millward Brown global CrossMedia datab

4、ase, April 2017, 798 studies. Contains results from all 4 regions (AMAP, LATAM, Europe and NA). In Europe, Facebook includes other social display & video.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

5、,41,34,28,29,9,9,10,56,6,6,7,6,6,14,13,12,12,15,16,19,21,6,13,14,13,6,4,5,4,Investment,Awareness,Associations,Motivation,,TV,,Social,,Online video,,67Online display,,Outdoor,,Print out,,POS,,Others,,,Channel level co

6、ntribution vs spend for different brand metrics,了解不同媒體渠道對品牌的影響Understanding the impact of media channels,7,,,,,It’s tough to assess how wellbrands perform across channels,Disagree,,Agree,Source: Getting Media Right,

7、衡量不同媒體在跨媒體營銷中的效果實屬不易Marketers though struggle to connect the dots,8,,,,,,,,,8%,85%,What is the most important measure of ROI?,Belief ≠ Action7%,,,,,,,8%,40%,52%,What approach to ROI measurement do you use?,Source:

8、 Getting Media Right, 2018,長期ROI和短期ROI指標都非常重要 實際評估時卻非如此,9,,Mostly short-term sales,,Mostly long-term brand building,,A mix of both,,,,,,Campaign Spend,,Decayed Campaign Spend,,Contribution,,Campaign period value of inc

9、remental transactions,70%,Decayed campaign value of incremental transactions,30%,,100%,Total campaign incremental value,,案例分析：有效衡量營銷活動中品牌及銷售的影響Case Study: Measuring brand effectiveness and sales,10,,,,跨媒體及整合的重要性 Th

10、e importance of integration and media mix,11,,,,,,,Source: Kantar Millward Brown global CrossMedia studies, 2015-2017,Integrated – similar ads, but not well customized to individual,(64),(102),Base,,Notwell integrated

11、,(57),157Integrated and most media were customized well,,131,100,整合和定制程度高的營銷活動顯示威力Integrated and customized campaigns show power,12,,,,,,,,,,Based on 350 XM studies.Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany,

12、 Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Turkey, UK & Ukraine.,Awareness,Association,Motivation,14%21%,23%,正確利用媒體協(xié)同效應高效釋放營銷活動效能Growth is unlocked through me

13、dia synergiesSynergy Uplift,13,,Q020 - AD_LINK_ASSETS: Advertising Link With Assets.,,,,,,,,The most important factors in campaign integrationQ Which of the following most help you realise that ads from a brand in man

14、y different places are linked together?% Endorse,,整合營銷活動中最為重要的影響因素,14,,,,,ADVERTISERS,Source: Kantar Getting Media Right, 2018,,,,AGENCIES,面對媒體整合市場營銷人員和營銷代理商看法不一But marketers and agencies are not aligned on confidenc

15、e in the media mix,14,Not confident45%,Confident55%,Not confident23%,Confident77%,,,OBJECTIVES,ENGAGEMENT,EXECUTIONS,IDEA,CHANNELS,AUDIENCE,Connection 1 Objectives to audience,Connection 2 Audience to relevant chan

16、nels,Connection 6Idea to audience & channel(s),Connection 3Idea to executions,Connection 4 executions to channels,Connection 5 channels to engagement,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,構(gòu)建連接Power of Six,16,,,,案例分析：與GenZ互動 構(gòu)建品牌的

17、連接Case Study: Connecting brand and interaction for GenZ,17,,,,,,,,,,,AI-generated creative,Immersive environments,Connected intelligence,未來增長的驅(qū)動力The next growth drivers,18,,19,,消費新勢力GenZ白皮書聯(lián)合發(fā)布,,,當世界矚目于Z世代，品牌突然發(fā)現(xiàn)他

18、們對這一新興消費人群知之甚少…,It’s time to focus on GenZ (post-95).Yet, there’s a gap with brands’ perception of young people’s consumption power and preferences…,魏力 William Wei凱度華通明略上?？蛻舴湛偙O(jiān)Head of Client ServicingKantar Millwar

19、d Brown Shanghai,2,準備好，迎接"新年輕一代“ 排山倒海的影響力,Expect and prepare for outsized influence from GenZ and youthful markets,22,80位15到24歲QQ系產(chǎn)品月 活用戶上海和西安近一年有購買過新美妝/服裝/首飾/包品牌的女生，或3C/運動裝備的男生,,,定性挖掘,,,,,,1,,虛擬 日記,,,V I R T

20、U A LL A B ?,小組 座談 會,60位從虛擬日記中的選出樣本,1對1深訪,36位15到24歲QQ系產(chǎn)品月 活用戶上海和西安從小組座談會中選出訪談樣 本,在 線 問 卷,3277位15到34歲的QQ月活用 戶全國區(qū)域，覆蓋一/二/三/四 線或以下城市,,,,,,2,,,3,,,4,,,定量評估,Z世代消費力白皮書研究方法Research methodology of ‘GenZ Spending Power W

21、hite Paper’,,Z世代，C位出道，消費實力總覽Overview of GenZ Spending Power,1,23,,24,,,中國的Z世代人 群（15-23歲）最龐大，計1.49億人,,到2020年Z世代將占據(jù)整體 消費力的40%,數(shù)據(jù)來源： Barclays Research、國家統(tǒng)計局，韜映資本整理 ，領英營銷官,Z世代正在成為當下的消費擔當GenZ has become the consumption

22、 powerhouse in China today,,收入高Z世代每月的可支配收入可觀,達 3501元,來源廣19-23歲的在校Z世代，35%有多種收入來源,在校Z世代的各種收入來源,,,,,,,,,,,,,7?,,34?,,40?,,54?,,67?,,賣二手物品,獎學金,校內(nèi)勤工儉學工資,家人提供生活費,校外兼職費用,25,樣本：QQ的Z世代用戶（n=2223）Q. 最近12個月，您平均每個月的收入大概是以下哪個范圍？這里

23、包括 家庭提供的生活費和您的所有收入。樣本：在校的QQ-95后用戶（n=723）Q.請問您現(xiàn)在有收入嗎？除家人/親人給的生活費以外的其他收入樣本：有多種收入來源的在校的QQ-95后用戶（n=252）Q. 請問您每月的花費主要來源于哪里？,,,只有家人提 供生活費65%,有多種收 入來源35%,,,Z世代 - 消費力強，敢賺敢花GenZ’s strong spending power is driven by wide ran

24、ge of income sources,,,,,,,,,,,,,26,,26,,,,,,,,,28?,,,43?,,,31?,,31?31?,,40?,,40?45?,,電腦,穿戴式設備,飾品,彩妝,,,品類滲透率,Z世代95前樣本：所有受訪QQ女性用戶（n=1207）Q.請問在過去12個月內(nèi)，您為自己購買過（或您的家人為 您代買過）以下哪些品類呢？樣本：所有受訪QQ用戶（n=3277）Q.請問在過去12個月內(nèi)，您為自己購

25、買過（或您的家人為您代 買過）以下哪些品類呢？注：飾品包括手鏈,項鏈,戒指,耳環(huán),腕表等,Z世代 - 消費開始得早，主要品類的消費滲透已經(jīng)持平上一代GenZ already reaches similar penetration vs. previous generation,,包包,運動裝&球鞋,3C,27,美妝,飾品,女鞋,數(shù)據(jù)來源：歐睿國際樣本：QQ的Z世代用戶（n=2223）Q.請問在過去12個月內(nèi)，您為自己購買

26、過（或您的家人為您代買過）以下哪些品類呢？Q. 在過去12個月內(nèi)，您購買（XX品類）總計花費多少錢？,,,29%,,,15%,,,22%,,,24%,,,34%,,,17%,Z世代占各品類的市場份額,Z世代 – 在美妝、運動裝&球鞋品類的消費占整個行業(yè)大約三成GenZ accounts for ~30% of spending on cosmetics, sports & shoes categories,,Z世代消

27、費觀 & 消費行為The consumption value & behavior of GenZ,2,28,,,29,,,消費動機1,消費為社交 圈子是買出來的買買買是簡單直白的社交方式、 尋找認同的表達。,,,消費動機2,？,消費為人設 “我是誰”？ “我想成為誰”買買買助力完成自我塑造,,,消費動機3,消費為悅己 再不瘋狂就遲了,買買買帶來當下的爽和幸福感。,Z世代的三大消費動機 The top 3 mot

28、ivations of GenZ consumption,,,30,樣本：QQ的Z世代用戶（n=2223）Q. 您對這些句子的認同程度如何？（7分，選Top3的比例）,,,消費能帶來談資和社交的資 本，吸引圈內(nèi)志同道合的人，成功進入社交 圈。,消費亦幫助Z世代擁有和同伴 們相同的東西，不落伍，才能更好的維系社交 關(guān)系，不被排擠。,“為社交”,是Z世代的重要消費動機,65% Z世代想跟朋友有共同語言,,Z世代的消費動機1:通過消

29、費把圈子 “買”出來GenZ’s consumption motivation #1: BUY FOR SOCIAL,,,31,樣本：QQ的Z世代用戶（n=2223）Q. 您對這些句子的認同程度如何？（7分，選Top3的比例）,,,Z世代不斷探索和嘗試 不同的風格，消費不同的品牌 和產(chǎn)品，體驗不同的生活方式來尋找什么適 合自己。,Z世代通過不斷購買興趣相關(guān)的品牌和產(chǎn)品，來加深興趣相關(guān)領域的鉆研， 建立起人設。,“為人設”,成為

30、驅(qū)動Z世代消費的重要動機,46% Z世代想要有存在感 (vs. 95前 41%),,Z世代的消費動機2:消費助力Z世代完成自我塑造GenZ’s consumption motivation #2: I AM WHAT I BUY,,,32,樣本：QQ的Z世代用戶（n=2223）Q. 您對這些句子的認同程度如何？（7分，選Top3的比例）,,對興趣的深刻見解是Z世代重 要的自我定義方式，也是產(chǎn)生 幸福感的源泉。但興趣養(yǎng)成需要長時間

31、的積累。,在漫長而重復的興趣養(yǎng)成中，Z世代會通過擁有心儀的物品帶來瞬間的快樂，不斷感受到生活中的即時幸福 與美好。,因此，“為悅己”成為Z世代的消費動機,大于 50%,Z世代認同花錢是為了獲得幸福感,,Z世代的消費動機3:消費變成Z世代最直接帶來當下爽和幸福感的方法GenZ’s consumption motivation #3: MY PLEASURE, RIGHT NOW,,,33,,消費幫助Z世代買出共鳴， 吸引同好

32、，更好維系和朋友的共同話題,品牌需要滿足年輕人愛社交的需求，建 立更強的分享意愿，擴大品牌影響力,為社交,,通過消費不斷探索和嘗試，加強自我認知和加深興趣的機會,為人設,品牌需要結(jié)合Z世代的興趣，更好引起他們對 品牌的關(guān)注和種草 意愿,,消費為Z世代帶來即時的滿足，讓他們感受到生活中的幸福感,為悅己,品牌需要借助強社交鏈和社群的影響力， 引導和加速Z世代的購 買決策,,,,Z世代三大消費動機對品牌的啟示Brand i

33、mplications of GenZ’s top 3 consumption motivations, …,,,,讓Z世代買單的營銷嘗試,Generation ZConsumption Power and Behavior,朱家慧 Laura Chu凱度消費者指數(shù)美妝客戶總監(jiān)Account DirectorKantar Worldpannel China,1,羅歡 Tracy Luo伽藍集團市場調(diào)研部高級總監(jiān) Senior

34、Market Research Director Jala Group,,35,,,,,,覆蓋中國1-5線城市； 樣本遍及373個抽樣城市Covers Urban China Tier 1-5 Cities; samples across 373 sample cities,連續(xù)性追蹤4萬個樣本涵蓋15-54歲男女Covers 15-54 year-old females and males; reporting 40

35、,000 individuals’ purchase on personal care/beauty sector continuously,使用掃描條碼的方式采 集消費者購買數(shù)據(jù)；每年超40萬筆美妝購買400,000+ Cosmetics* purchases are collected every year through barcode scanning,,,,,凱度消費者指數(shù) - 中國美妝購買樣組,Kantar w

36、orld panel beauty panel,,36,,所買,Product details,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Omni-channel,,Promotion,,,Frequency,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,所想AttitudesPath to purchase Brand perceptions,所看Media consumption Cross-media ROI,,,,,消費者Demo

37、graphic :AgeGenderIncome Geographic：RegionCity tier,獨特優(yōu)勢 - 同源數(shù)據(jù)；以消費者為中心，連接觸媒習慣、消費者態(tài)度和購買行為Beauty panel unleashes consumer-centric connectivity to link sales (buy) to think (attitude) & see (media)Consumer sp

38、end,,37,,,時尚又花心的Z時代是 美妝發(fā)展的動力之源GenZ is the growth engine of cosmetics,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,20,40,60,80,5%,10%,25%30%,Penetration,Value GR,,Makeup,Facial skin care,Intimate wash,Shampoo,Conditione

39、r,Shower gel,Hand wash,,Body care,Hair colorant,Fragrance,Hair styling,Bar soap,Deodorant,Personal Care Category Performance,38,* Personal Care incl. Skin care, Makeup, Fragrance, Hair Care, Hair Remover, Personal Wash,

40、Female care,Personal careValue GR,*Data source: Kantar Worldpanel Beauty Panel; TTL Urban China; 15~54 y.o, Y2017,,+15%,護膚和彩妝是現(xiàn)階段中國市場最大機會Skin care and makeup are the biggest opportunities within PC sector,,銷15額% 增長率Val

41、ue GR20%,,滲透率Penetration,Fast35%,0%Slow,Low,High,,Data source: Kantar Worldpanel Beauty Panel; TTL Urban China; 15~54 y.o. females,2018P6,39,,,,,,,,,,Y2016,,Y2017,Cosmetics spending by age (RMB),,Value GR,,,,,,,,,,29,33,

42、,15-24,,25-34,,35-44,,45-54,Value contribution by ageTo total cosmetics,美妝市場的增長靠千禧一代，尤以Z世代領先Millennials are the growth engine of China cosmetics market, with 15-24 leading,,Data source: Kantar Worldpanel Usage Panel,,

43、Key + A, Female, Age 13+, 2017,40,,,,,119Crucial to keep up with the trend,Like trendy packaging,*Index=% of GenZ agreeing with statement/% of that in other age group,,112Look for new cosmetics,,118,,116Like fun &

44、 exciting cosmetics,J-beauty,Ampoules,,Joint-design,,Beauty fun catcher,,,Z世代追隨潮流、喜愛嘗新GenZ closely follow the trend and like fun products,,Data source: Kantar Worldpanel Beauty Panel; TTL Urban China; Female 15~54 y.o,

45、Y2018Q3,41,,,,,,,,,,,,AGE 15-24,AGE 25-34,AGE 35-44,AGE 45-54,,No. of Segments,,No. of Brands,,,,,GenZ’s top brands by regime in skincare,Sub-category/brands purchased in skincare,,,,,,Makeup Remover TonerFacial washMo

46、isturizerEssence Eye careMaskMakeup Base Sun care,年輕的Z世代對品牌不忠誠，女生更是品牌混搭滿足需求,They are disloyal to a single brand, mix-and-match behavior is observed led by young females,,,,,42,61%,,,,,UGC platforms – Knowledge e

47、ducation,,,,,*KOL owned brands*Platform owned brandsKOL / Platform recommendation,,Source: GroupM This Year Next Year Spring 2018,Internet includes Mobile Internet, E-commerce, Search, Online Video and Social Media.

48、* Buyer% of GenZ in Social Media / GenZ Population%,Internet share of media2018f,137index*Social media reach GenZ more effectively,數(shù)字媒體花費已占整體超六成、社交媒體持續(xù)演化；用社交媒體與Z世代溝通尤其重要With digital prevalence, social media evolves f

49、rom sharing into experts implanting brands onto consumers’ minds, particularly the young consumers,,Data source: Kantar Worldpanel Beauty Panel; TTL Urban China; Female 15~54 y.o,Y2017,43,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,15-24,25-34,

50、35-44,45-54,Online purchase behaviorFrequencyItems / Trip,,Video live streamBeauty community,,,,,,,,,,,,,WeChat applet offers various interaction with consumers Weibo links directly to T-mall/Taobao sto

51、res,,,,,年輕消費者在各APP中種草拔草，形成多次少量的購買習慣,M-commerce & content APPs create numerous instant purchase occasions that shape the purchase pattern - small but frequent trips of young females,,,44,,通過社交媒體有效提升銷售、溝通效率及及拉新,Socia

52、l media todrive sales, efficiency and recruit new,,,15%,,53%,,32%,電視廣告到達TV reach,,,,,,,100%,數(shù)字媒體廣告到達Digital reach,,,Data Source: Kantar Worldpanel Finding New Shoppers Seminar,跨媒體投放對品牌依然重要，以最大化觸達Cross media investme

53、nt to maximize consumer reach,45,,電視TV,,,數(shù)字媒體Digital,,,等量觸達媒體銷售貢獻指數(shù)Sales Uplift per Unit Reach Index,,,,￥162,,￥100,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Data Source: Kantar Worldpanel Finding New Shoppers Seminar,數(shù)字

54、媒體對等量購物者觸達所拉動的銷售貢獻效率比電視高62%Digital almost 62% more efficient in driving sales uplift per unit reach than TV,46,,,Social,OTV,,,,,+24~34%等量觸達媒體銷售貢獻協(xié)同效果Sales Uplift per Unit Reach Synergy Effect,Data Source: Kantar World

55、panel Finding New Shoppers Seminar,利用媒體協(xié)同作用，最大化效果，社交媒體硬廣和OTV協(xié)同作用顯著Halo effect across different media maximized media impact, especially the OTV and social hard advertising works in best synergy,47,,找到與購物者溝通最優(yōu)頻次點，以有效拉動銷

56、售、減少浪費Communicate with shoppers at optimal frequency to avoid wastage,Data Source: Kantar Worldpanel Finding New Shoppers Seminar,與購物者溝通最優(yōu)頻次,Actual Frequency in Driving Sales Uplift,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

57、,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Campaign 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,,TV,,OTV,,Social,,高 于 平 均 水 平,,低 于 平 均 水 平,Index above average Index below average,Data Source: Kantar Worldpanel Finding New Shoppers Seminar,各媒體都有拉新能力，利用OT

58、V和社交媒體更好地幫助品牌拉新,All media can drive new shoppers - OTV and social especially effective attracting new shoppers,49,,,,50,伽藍案例分享,– 自然堂2018雪潤皙白系列推廣JALA CASE STUDY– Chando Crystal White Line,,TFBoys愛上透粉白，撩動Z世代粉絲；偶像練習生流量加乘

59、When TFBoys meet Crystal White, luring Gen Z fans; Multiplied traffic thanks to “Idol Producer”.,51,#透粉白臉色療愈所#全網(wǎng)媒體覆 蓋沖頂時尚美妝話題榜 TOP2話題聲量突破 4600萬+話題討論量突破 11萬+,,,,,,聚焦消費者痛點，結(jié)合產(chǎn)品特點“自凈化”科技，國內(nèi)首家4D臉色療愈所，帶來創(chuàng)新的沉浸式體驗,52,,,,,,,

60、六大主題臉色療愈區(qū)逐個攻破臉色難題,失戀,熬夜斑點,壓力,生病,曬黑,,“獨一無二”的“黑科技”---- 自凈化技術(shù),偶像練習生化身為透粉白臉色療愈練習生,,,,以諾貝爾生理學與醫(yī)學獎“細胞自噬機制方面 的發(fā)現(xiàn)”為理論依據(jù)，創(chuàng)新運用“自凈化”技 術(shù)，增強細胞自凈化機能。,,,53,熱點流量《偶像練習生》明星站臺，現(xiàn)場氛圍嗨到爆Pop-up stores with idols from “Idol Producers” att

61、racting offline attention,,,,上海新世界大丸百貨200m2的活動場地瘋狂涌入3000+粉絲雪潤皙白系列增長高達 x3倍單柜總銷量暴增 x2倍,,,,,,,聚焦Z世代消費者Be Gen Z-focused抓住這個最大的增長引擎！ 充分利用熱點話題、好玩、 好看元素，精準定位Z世代。Grasp this biggest growth engine!Leverage hot topics

62、, fun elements, and product appeals to lock down Gen Z,掌握Z世代截然不同的購 物模式，協(xié)同社交媒體 投放增加品牌轉(zhuǎn)化Learn the different shopping patterns and trigger points of Gen Z, right mix of (social/content) media touch points to capture

63、the ever more fragmented purchase occasions,打造中國專屬的全渠 道、跨媒體營銷策略China-specific Omni-channel/ Cross-Media Strategy跨平臺打造一致的品牌體 驗，利用引人入勝的內(nèi)容最 大化銷售轉(zhuǎn)化的機會Create coherent brand experience through O&O cross-media integr

64、ation: activate consumer-engaging contents to maximize sales across multiple platforms,關(guān)鍵洞察,Key takeaways,,,,Social Media: Powered by KOLs and Celebrities,社交媒體營銷：意見領袖在社交媒體上 對“新年輕一代”的影響楊超 Coolio YangKantar Media CIC

65、 中國首席執(zhí)行官,55,,數(shù)據(jù)來源：KMCIC研究整理,,,,,,,,功能性導向,,,,衍生社交媒體,,,,,核心社交 媒體用戶關(guān)系,平臺 內(nèi)容,2018年以前,2018年,當下社交媒體- 雙格局社交媒體生態(tài),56,,Z世代常用的社會化媒體平臺The social media platforms commonly used by GenZ,數(shù)據(jù)來源：極光大數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布的《2018年4月大學生群體app行為研究報告》，以及易觀發(fā)布的額

66、《2018年 上半年95后網(wǎng)民行為分析》KMCIC研究整理,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,衍生社會化媒體平臺,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,核心社會化媒體平臺,,……,……,57,,數(shù)據(jù)來源：KMCIC研究整理,,核心社會化媒體Core Social Media,衍生社會化媒體Derivative Social Media,用戶更加偏向使用單向交流的關(guān)系模式，即 從內(nèi)容生產(chǎn)者處獲取信息，例如意見領袖、 公眾媒體甚至是平臺本身

67、的算法推薦結(jié)果。,雙向共享的用戶關(guān)系，用戶與用戶之間更加 頻繁地交換各自的生活體驗或其他信息。,58,,當下，意見領袖由去中心化發(fā)展為“再中心化”的變遷KOL has transformed from de-centralization to re-centralization”,數(shù)據(jù)來源：KMCIC研究整理,,社會化媒體的出現(xiàn)使得傳播變得“去中心化”， 每個民眾都能自由地發(fā)聲并傳播信息。,,部分網(wǎng)民把握了大眾的需求，帖合當下熱點，

68、脫穎而出成為了意見領袖。,,,,,,社會化媒體的出現(xiàn)催生網(wǎng)絡,“去中心化”的格局,,意見領袖“再中心化”,準入門檻變高,59,,意見領袖準入門檻逐漸變高，形成線上階層固化The transition to ‘re-centralization’ will gradually raise the threshold of becoming a KOL, causing the online user hierarchy to soli