國有農場財務危機預警研究.pdf

1、中國農業(yè)大學博士學位論文國有農場財務危機預警研究姓名：陳艷嬌申請學位級別：博士專業(yè)：農業(yè)經濟管理指導教師：喬娟20070601AbstractMoreandmoreenterprisesaretroubledbyfmancialcrisisandevengobankruptinfiercemarketcompetitionwhichposesaseriousthreatnotonlytotheexistenceanddevelopmen

2、toftheenterprisesbutalsototheinterestofinvestors，creditorsandevenOIIgnationSomestateownedfarmsbasedOllagriculturalproductionhavebeenunderdeficitforalongtimeThecontinuoushappeningsoffinancialcrisiswillbeadversetothesoluti

3、onofAgricultureCoun仃yPeusautproblemtheconstructionofthenewsocialistvillageandthefurtherdevelopmentofournation’SeconomyThereforeitisessentialtostudythefinancialcrisisearlywarninginstateownedfarmsTakingthestateownedfarmsun

4、dertheMinistryofAgricultureasthestudysubjectthepaperproposesthefinancialcrisisearlywarningtheoryofstateownedfarmsbasedOilthecomprehensiveanalysisofrelevantfinancialcrisisearlywarningtheoryanddataofstateownedfarmsWhat’SmO

5、reitanalyzestheinternalandexternalcausesoffinancialcrisisofstateownedfarmsandalsoconstructsanappropriatefinancialcrisisearlywarningmodelforstateownedfarmbasedonfactoranalysisanddiscriminateanalysisofSPSSTakingaboveanalys

6、isasawholethispaperproposesaslateownedfarmfinancialcrisisearlywarningsystemInordertoinsuretheeffectivenessofthesystemthepaperalsoproposestheorganizationaloperatinginstitutiotIandexplainsthefunctionsofiustitutionanditsope

7、ratingprocedureAtlastthepaperanalyzestheimplementingconditionsandthepossibilitiesofthefinancialcrisisearlywarningsystemofstateownedfarmTlmconclusionsofthepaper勰∞follows：(】)thestateownedfarmhasitsownfeaturesintheoperating

8、mechanismandsocialitybesidesthecharacteristicsofthegeneralstateownedenterprisesandtheagricultureenterprisesThereforethestateownedfarmshouldbeconsideredasthespecialstateownedagricultureenterprise(2)Thecausosoffinancialcri

9、sisofstateownedfarms艉variedandcomplicatedFromtheinternalperspective，itinclud∞fivelevelsasthetalentedfinancemanagementgovernancestructure，socialfunctionandsocialstabilitystrategicdecisionExternalcausesincludefourleveisasn

10、aturaldisasterspolicyenvironmentthepriceofagriculturalproductinthemarketandtheindustrycharacteristicUnderthegeneralcircumstance，financialcrisisiscausedbyboththeintemalandextemalcaus囂Insomespecialcas囂，asinglecauseCallalso

11、bfingthestateownedfarmasuddenfinancecrisisTheheavydebtburdenandnaturaldisastersarcthemainreasonsamongalltheinternalandexternalcaus鼢(3)Thispaperconstructsafinancialcomprehensivecapabilityrankingmodelbyutilizingthefactoran

12、alysiswithwhichfinancialcfisisofstateownedfarmscanbepredictedandrankedbythescores；discriminatecapacityisinspectedbytheretumofreservationsampleandprediaionofthepredictingsamplewiththefisherdiscriminatemodelwhichOReisconst

13、ructedbasedondiscriminativeanalysisTheresultprovesthatthefactoranalysisandfisherdiscriminatemodelhavehjghpredictingcapabilityfbrtllcfinancialcrisisofstateownedfarms(4)Basedonallaboveresearchthispapersetupafinancialcrisis