study on risk of logistics and transport

1、<p>　　Study on Risk of Logistics and transport</p><p>　　Abstract. for logistics and transport security status quo， study and proposed transportation security risk evaluation index system； using whitenin

2、g weight function design specific transportation security risk assessment model； verified by an example， that the evaluation method is more scientific and accurate comprehensive evaluationtransportation security situatio

3、n， with the characteristics of the feasibility and operability. </p><p>　　Key words： evaluation； logistics； transportation risk management </p><p>　　1. Introduction </p><p>　　How to

4、 ensure the safety of transport， more and more public concern. But transportation security involves a wide range of influencing factors， and various influencing factors randomness， some factors both objectivity and subje

5、ctivity， it is difficult to quantify， the general safety evaluation method has some limitations. Of man - machine - environment - Principles of management systems， through the use of gray system theory， fuzzy math and ex

6、pert scoring method established transportation safety </p><p>　　2. Transport safety risk assessment model </p><p>　　2.1 Evaluation index system </p><p>　　Transportation Safety Evalu

7、ation， follow the principle of comprehensiveness， highlight， independence and viability. Transportation Security conducted a comprehensive， systematic analysis of the transport system is a human - vehicle - environment -

8、 management system [4]. According to the actual situation of the four elements and the transport of dangerous goods， the analysis of all aspects of transport， to assess all aspects of the level of risk， screening crew fa

9、ctors， the five-level indicators </p><p>　　2.2 Evaluation index weight </p><p>　　The importance degree of each indicator affect safety during transport in transportation security risk evaluation

10、 index system. Given different weights should be based on the level of each indicator of the size of the Transportation Security. Based on various indicators with subjective expert scoring method to get the weight of all

11、 the experts， then the weight average weight requirements so closer to the actual situation of the transport of dangerous goods safety.Assumptions m bits experts are i</p><p>　　， 。Each ，Corresponding to the

12、weights can be obtained by scoring average of all experts， denoted as： </p><p><b>　　（1） </b></p><p>　　Where ， 。Determine the weight of the 21 second evaluation right. Uses the same e

13、xpert scoring， and then averaging method. For example： the same invite experts in the m-bit set to u1） （5） of the two indicators of the first-level indicators （scoring， the result is noted as </p><p>　　，（ Se

14、condary indicators），Then： </p><p><b>　?。?） </b></p><p>　　Wherein each column satisfy： ， ， </p><p>　　By calculating the average for each row of data. Two indicators can b

15、e obtained weights， denoted ，where i is number of expert。Weight according to the same method can be obtained for all other Layer indicators， denoted as： </p><p><b>　　（3） </b></p><p>

16、　　Where ， （i=1，2，…5），ni is second Layer indicators。 </p><p>　　2.3 Transportation security risk evaluation process </p><p>　　This transportation security risk level identified as level 5， namely：

17、 （4） </p><p>　　Five levels following meanings： safety， safer， general safety， more dangerous， dangerous} to five levels， respectively， given the values 1， 2， 3， 4， 5. Higher numbers indicate a greater securi

18、ty risk. When experts believe that one of two indicators of security risk rating is between two adjacent level of risk can be endowed numerical 1.5，2.5，3.5，4.5. Has m experts on indicators of 21 second-level evaluation f

19、or scoring， set the number of experts to k=1，2，…，m， is score of number k expert for uij。</p><p><b>　?。?） </b></p><p>　　Transportation risk level is determined to be 5： 1 - Security，

20、2 - safer - General Security， 4 - dangerous， 5 - dangerous. Serial v= 1，2， ... 5。 </p><p>　　is whitening weight function，then ： </p><p><b>　?。?） </b></p><p>　　Whitening

21、weight function to calculate （5） in the coefficient of the right value， the result is D‘，then： </p><p><b>　　（7） </b></p><p>　　The use of the formula （7） were calculated the secondary

22、 evaluation index weight vector.then： - 1- layer of indicators of risk level， ：2- layer of indicators of risk level，then： </p><p><b>　　， ，is： </b></p><p><b>　?。?） </b><

23、;/p><p>　　an indicator of the weight vector can be calculated through （3） and （8）. Assume that the weight vector is Ai， are： </p><p>　　evaluation value of total logistics security risk rating isT：

24、</p><p>　　Set ，G's size determines that what risk level for the transport of dangerous goods security risk ， and based on the results of analysis of causes and response measures. </p><p>　　3

25、. Results Test </p><p>　　A logistics enterprises， for example， according to the transport of dangerous goods safety risk index system and gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to assess the risk of trans

26、portation safety，by 13 Transportation Security expert interviews and actually research. To collate ， classificate and calculate the data given by these experts，Respectively determine the weight of a layer of evaluation：

27、 　　Table 1 Second layer index weights： </p><p>　　After analysis calculated， =3.255. </p><p>　　Analysis of results： the logistics of the security situation in the general security more dangerous

28、between the two levels， with a certain degree of risk， should take measures to strengthen prevention， especially in the secondary indicators， staffing levels， the level of security risk management generally partialfuture

29、 logistics enterprises should strengthen staff training， improve personnel management levels. The level of the average age of younger managers to comply with the requirements of th</p><p>　　4. Conclusion <

30、;/p><p>　　Logistics is a modern transport with a vital significance， gray system theory and fuzzy mathematics security risk assessment and early warning of dangerous goods transportation， both able to better un

31、derstand the transport safety risk status at the same time be able to be taken according to the results of the evaluationmeasures ，to reduce the level of risk. Therefore， the evaluation method has some scientific and pra

32、ctical value. </p><p>　　Reference </p><p>　　[1]Bruee J Thomson. International co- operation in hazardous materials accident prevention[J]. Loss Prevention in the Process industries，1999，12（3）：21

33、7- 225. </p><p>　　[2]Roberto Bubbico，Cinzia Ferrari，Barbara Mazzarotta.Risk analysis of LPGtransport byroad and rail[J]. Loss Prevention in the Process Industries， 2000，13（1）：27- 31. </p><p>　　[

34、3] MA Jun， WANG Rong. Application of GPS Technology in Vehicle Management： Illustrated with China Merchants Group Logistics [J]. Logistics Technology.2012（6）：89-92. </p><p>　　[4]DWSong， P MPanayides.global s

35、upply chain and port/terminal：integrationandcompetitveness [A]. 2007 InternationalConference on Logistics， Shipping and Port management [C].2007. </p><p>　　[5] DWSong， P MPanayides. Evaluating the integratio