氣候改變對(duì)斯里蘭卡茶產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　VULNERABILITY OF SRI LANKA TEA PRODUCTION TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE</p><p>　　Material Source: The Research

2、Institute Research Advisory and Extension Centre Ratnapura, SriLanka </p><p>　　Author: M.A. WIJERATNE</p><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　Although industria

3、l exports such as textiles and garments bring in a higher percentage of foreign exchange, a~-iculture is the highest net foreign exchange earner in Sri Lanka. Of the agricultural exports, tea alone contributes about 15-2

4、5% of the total exchange earnings and, hence, plays a key role in the Sri Lankan economy. About 30% of the employees of the public sector (government and semigovernment) are manual workers on estates, and the majority of

5、 these are employed on tea plantations. Mo</p><p>　　In spite of the expansion of the small holdings sector, in Sri Lanka, the total area of tea plantations has decreased since the 1930s, i.e., from about 0.4

6、4 to 0.23 x 10 s ha. The decline in the estate sector tea lands began early in the 1960s, because of low productivity brought about by soil and bush debilitation. Many of the midcountry (600-1,200 m elevation) tea planta

7、tions have now become marginal, warranting crop diversification. Adversities of weather and poor management practices have be</p><p>　　Being a rainfed plantation crop in Sri Lanka, tea depends greatly on wea

8、ther for optimal growth. Therefore, changes in weather conditions would undoubtedly affect tea production. The relationship between tea yield and weather has been discussed by many researchers (e.g., Devanathan, 1975; Ka

9、ndiah and Thevadasan, 1980; Carr and Stephens, 1992). The findings of this study differ from those of the Sri Lanka country report (ADB, 1994). This could be due to the different models used to predict tea yi</p>

10、<p>　　Droughts inflict irreparable losses to the tea industry and hence to the economy of Sri Lanka. The consequences of the droughts in 1983 and 1992 are good examples (Central Bank, 1983; 1992). The decline in pro

11、duction due to drought in early 1983 was about 4% over the previous year, and the drought in 1992 reduced tea production by about 26% compared to that of 1991. It also increased the costs of production by 19%, depriving

12、the country of about 3 billion rupees (US$70 million) of foreign exchan</p><p>　　Heavy rainfall also causes considerable damage to tea plantations through soil erosion, poor growth due to lack of sun, and in

13、creases in disease incidence. Poorly covered old seedling tea fields, pruned tea fields, and young tea fields during the first two years are more vulnerable to soil erosion due to inadequate ground cover. It has been est

14、imated that more than 30 cm of top soil has already been lost from Sri Lanka's tea plantations, especially in the uplands (Krishnaraj ah, 1985). Landslide</p><p>　　Climate Change and Methods</p>&

15、lt;p>　　According to climate change scenarios, the increases in global atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and temperatures by 2100 could be in the range of 600-700 ppm and 1.0-3.5 °C, respectively, </p><p&

16、gt;　　compared to 1990, depending on different scenarios of variations in greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N20 ) and oceanic changes (Houghton et al., 1996). </p><p>　　The consequences of climate change wi

17、ll differ from one country to another. In the recently published Sri Lanka country report (ADB, 1994), it was shown that Sri Lanka will experience frequent droughts, wanner spells, and extreme rainfall events as a result

18、 of the climate change. Scenarios &temperature changes for Sri Lanka show an increase in temperature of 0.4-3.0°C by 2070 (ADB, 1994). Moreover, climate change scenarios presented for Sri Lanka have shown that t

19、he frequency and severity of suc</p><p>　　In many other countries, vulnerability assessments on different economically and socially important areas are being conducted to inform policy makers about suitable

20、adaptation measures that could be implemented. Hence, it has become a current need to address the possible impacts of global climate change on the tea industry in Sri Lanka. </p><p>　　In this study, the effe

21、cts of environmental factors on growth and yield of tea were studied using data on annual variation of climatic factors and yield parameters of tea. The relationship between the climatic factors and tea yield was analyze

22、d using linear regression analysis. </p><p>　　Results and Discussion</p><p>　　As described previously, since there is no irrigation, tea yield is greatly influenced by weatherl Tea grows well un

23、der air temperatures in the range of 18-25 °C (Carl 1972; Watson, 1986). A well-distributed rainfall of about 1,300-1,400 mm per year is generally considered adequate for the growth of tea in Sri Lanka. It is also r

24、eported that an annual rainfall of about 2,500-3,000 mm is optimum for tea cultivation (Fuch, 1989; Watson, 1986). There is a wide variation in temperature and rainfall </p><p>　　Although the relationship be

25、tween weather and tea yield has shown that increases in rainfall and temperature increase tea yield (Devanathan, 1975; Squire, 1990), recent observations have shown that at higher temperature regimes (>25-26 ° C)

26、, the yield components of tea (shoot population density, shoot weight, and shoot extension rate) tend to decrease with increasing temperatures: </p><p>　　SW = 0.647 (4-0.059)- 0.017 (4-0.002) T</p>&l

27、t;p>　　R 2 = 40%, p < 0.001 ,</p><p><b>　　and </b></p><p>　　SER = 225 (±38)- 6.62 (±1.37) T</p><p>　　R 2 = 29%, p < 0.001 ,</p><p>　　where

28、 SW, SER, and T are the shoot dry weight (g/shoot), shoot extension rate (mm/week), and temperature (°C), respectively. Low R 2 values were obtained because this experiment was conducted under field conditions where

29、 none of the environmental factors were controlled. </p><p>　　Figure 2 shows the relationship between tea shoot population density and temperature for TRI 2025 and TRI 2023, two common tea clones (cultivars)

30、 in Sri Lanka. </p><p>　　Experiments under controlled environments have shown that shoot extension rate increases with increasing temperatures up to 22°C, and fitrther increases in temperature up to 34&

31、#176;C result in a decline in the extension rate (Figure 3; the dashed lines below 15 °C in the figure are extrapolations of the linear relationship to obtain the base temperature above which tea grows). </p>

32、<p>　　The adverse effects of climate change are expected to be greater in the low country tea growing regions (<600 m above mean sea level) where the mean air temperatures are usually higher than 25°C and d

33、rought damages are greater. However, this is the region where the majority of tea production enters the market (Figure 4). Further, most of the small holdings are concentrated in the low country districts. </p>&l

34、t;p>　　The effects of drought on tea plantations are well known (Wijeratne and Ekanayake, 1990; Navaratne, 1992; Yatawatte, 1992). Increases in temperature, soil moisture deficit, and vapor pressure deficit create a pl

35、ant water deficit, which leads to growth retardation. Experimental results in the low country have shown that clonal tea yields could be adversely affected at temperatures >26°C, soil moisture deficits >30-50

36、mm, and saturation vapor pressure deficits >1.2 kPa (Wijeratne, 1994). Given the</p><p>　　Extreme rainfall events within a short period of time also cause considerable damage through erosion. Loss of fert

37、ility, reduction in water holding capacity because of an increase in graveliness, exposure of hard pans, exposure of root systems, and reduction in microbial activities due to loss of organic matter are some of the negat

38、ive consequences of soil erosion, adversely affecting the growth and yield of tea. With the loss of top soil, cultivable lands may become barren or unproductive and c</p><p>　　When these facts are considered

39、, it is clear that the predicted climate change in Sri Lanka, i.e., recurrent warm seasons, droughts, and heavy rains with erratic distribution, will undoubtedly affect the tea industry. Tea needs an even distribution of

40、 rainfall to ensure continuous production. Although increased atmospheric CO 2 levels can enhance photosynthesis, this beneficial effect cannot be expected to offset the negative impacts expected because of limitations s

41、uch as high temperatures and </p><p>　　Currently, more than 50% of Sri Lanka's tea fields are seedling fields with poor ground cover. Although these seedlings are generally more adaptable to environmenta

42、l stress, their ability to withstand dry weather is being degraded by poor soil and poor management. Most of these fields are planted along the slope (but not on contours) and hence are also vulnerable to soil erosion. R

43、ecent observations have shown that even seedling tea fields are subject to drought damage due to poor shade and poor</p><p>　　considerable damage from climate change. </p><p>　　Shade is an essen

44、tial requirement in tea plantations: shade trees reduce temperature, conserve </p><p>　　soil, and increase relative humidity. After the abrupt removal of shade trees in the early 1960s (shade was removed wit

45、h the hope that an increase in light intensity would enhance the assimilation of tea), shade management in Sri Lanka's tea plantations was very poor. Under such conditions, vulnerability of the tea industry to global

46、 warming and soil erosion will be much greater. </p><p>　　As a result of the poor management of shade trees and of green manure crops, the addition of organic matter to Sri Lanka's tea lands is currently

47、 inadequate. Higher temperatures in the years to come will quickly degrade organic matter, leaving unfertile soil with poor physical and chemical properties, especially in the low elevations. Further, increased soil eros

48、ion will also reduce the soil's organic carbon levels……</p><p><b>　　譯文</b></p><p>　　氣候改變對(duì)斯里蘭卡茶產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響</p><p>　　資料來(lái)源:The Research Institute Research Advisory and Extens

49、ion Centre Ratnapura, SriLanka </p><p>　　作者: M.A. WIJERATNE</p><p><b>　　引論 </b></p><p>　　雖然紡織品和服裝類(lèi)工業(yè)的出口帶來(lái)了很高比例的外匯，但是，在斯里蘭卡，農(nóng)業(yè)出口是最高的凈外匯收入來(lái)源。而在

50、農(nóng)業(yè)出口中，單單茶葉就占了整個(gè)外匯收入大約15 至25%的比例。因而在斯里蘭卡經(jīng)濟(jì)中起了決定性的作用。在公共部門(mén)（政府和半政府）中，大約30%的雇員是工廠的手工工人，其中，大部分在茶葉種植廠里就職。而且， 大約 239000 茶葉小廠家提供了大量的國(guó)內(nèi)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。相應(yīng)地，多于700000 的工人和他們的家庭都依賴(lài)于茶產(chǎn)業(yè)。這些數(shù)據(jù)充分顯示了茶產(chǎn)業(yè)在斯里蘭卡社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要性。</p><p>　　自從20世紀(jì)30

51、年代以來(lái)，盡管一些小廠家得到了擴(kuò)張，但是在斯里蘭卡，茶業(yè)種植的總體區(qū)域是呈現(xiàn)縮減趨勢(shì)的，比如說(shuō)，從0.44 *10 到0.25 * 10 （）。由于土地和灌木叢無(wú)力而導(dǎo)致的生產(chǎn)力低下，茶產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)的土地占有率從20世紀(jì)60年代開(kāi)始減少。很多國(guó)家中部的 （600到1200 米的高地）茶葉種植區(qū)已經(jīng)趨于邊際，作物出現(xiàn)多樣化。惡劣的氣候和管理實(shí)踐水平的低下是造成這種情況的主要原因。20世紀(jì)60年代初，在陰影區(qū)消除之后，茶葉種植區(qū)的氣候變化已經(jīng)影

52、響了茶樹(shù)的生產(chǎn)力 (Fuch, 1989)。20世紀(jì)70年代，茶生產(chǎn)的國(guó)有化所產(chǎn)生的一些副作用，比如對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)實(shí)踐的忽視，導(dǎo)致了私有部門(mén)生產(chǎn)力的降低 (Fuch, 1989)。作為一個(gè)斯里蘭卡雨養(yǎng)地生產(chǎn)作物，茶產(chǎn)業(yè)的最優(yōu)生長(zhǎng)很大程度上依賴(lài)于氣候。氣候和茶產(chǎn)量的關(guān)系已經(jīng)被很多研究者討論過(guò) (比如 比如Devanathan, 1975; Kandiah 和 Thevadasan, 1980; Carr 和 Stephens, 1992)。在

53、 M.A.WIJERATNE在他的報(bào)告中關(guān)于水資源，空氣和土壤污染的發(fā)現(xiàn)和斯里蘭卡的國(guó)家報(bào)告是不一樣的(</p><p>　　大量的降雨也通過(guò)土壤流失，缺少陽(yáng)光而導(dǎo)致低生產(chǎn)，疾病發(fā)生率的提高，給茶生產(chǎn)帶來(lái)了巨大的損壞。由于土壤覆蓋面的不足，在頭兩年里，一些土壤表皮很薄弱的茶地，修理過(guò)得茶地，以及一些新的茶地很容易受土壤流失的影響。在斯里蘭卡，經(jīng)估計(jì)，大于30厘米的茶種植地表皮已經(jīng)流失，尤其是在高地(Krishna

54、raj ah, 1985)。山崩滑坡也對(duì)種植有負(fù)面的影響，同時(shí)也會(huì)危害在斜坡面工作的工人的生命。</p><p><b>　　氣候變化和方法</b></p><p>　　根據(jù)氣候變化記錄，到2100年，全球大氣中二氧化碳的集中度和氣溫的上升將分別在600到700ppm，以及1.0到3.5攝氏度的范圍之間。</p><p>　　環(huán)境因素在茶產(chǎn)量和

55、生長(zhǎng)系數(shù)上的影響力在這個(gè)研究中做了分析，主要采用氣候因素和茶葉的產(chǎn)量系數(shù)的年變化數(shù)據(jù)。氣候因素和茶葉的產(chǎn)量系數(shù)之間的關(guān)系通過(guò)線性回歸分析。</p><p><b>　　結(jié)論和討論</b></p><p>　　在先前描述過(guò)，由于沒(méi)有灌溉，茶葉產(chǎn)量在很大程度上受氣候影響。在18度到25度的溫度范圍內(nèi)，茶葉生長(zhǎng)良好(Carl, 1972; Watson, 1986)。良好的

56、雨水分布，每年大約在1300到1400毫米左右，是足夠供斯里蘭卡的茶葉生長(zhǎng)。有報(bào)道指出，2500到3000毫米左右的年雨水量能夠促成茶葉種植的最優(yōu)（Fuch,1989;Watson, 1986）。在斯里蘭卡，不同地區(qū)的氣溫和降雨量有很大的差異。</p><p>　　雖然氣溫和茶產(chǎn)量之間的關(guān)系顯示，降雨量和氣溫的增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致茶產(chǎn)量的增加(Devanathan, 1975; Squire, 1990), 但是最近發(fā)現(xiàn)顯

57、示，越高的氣溫物理環(huán)境(大于25到26攝氏度)，茶葉的產(chǎn)量成分 （嫩枝的密度，重量和稀釋率）將會(huì)隨著氣溫的升高而趨于減少。</p><p>　　SW = 0.647  (4-0.059)- 0.017  (4-0.002) T </p><p>　　R  2 = 40%, p < 0.001，</p><p>　　其中，

58、SW, SER 和 T 分別代表干嫩芽的重量 （克），嫩芽的稀釋率（毫米/周） 以及溫度（攝氏度）。結(jié)果得到較低的R2 是因?yàn)樵搶?shí)驗(yàn)是在沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)環(huán)境因素受控制的情況下進(jìn)行的。</p><p>　　在茶葉低生長(zhǎng)區(qū)域(<海拔600米)，平均空氣溫度一般高于25攝氏度，同時(shí)大旱的破壞力也更大，這些區(qū)域里氣候變化的負(fù)面影響將比預(yù)期更大。但是，這些區(qū)域中的大部分茶葉將進(jìn)入市場(chǎng) （圖4）。而且， 在農(nóng)村區(qū)域的低地，

59、大部分小工廠集中起來(lái)。</p><p>　　大旱對(duì)茶葉種植的影響是眾所周知的（Wijeratne, Ekanayake,1990; Navaratne, 1992; Yatawatte, 1992）。氣溫的變化，土壤水分流失以及水蒸汽壓力的流失產(chǎn)生了大量的水分流失，從而導(dǎo)致了生長(zhǎng)延遲。低地的實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示，在溫度大于26攝氏度，土壤水分流失大于30到50毫米，飽和水汽壓力流失大于1.2kPA的情況下，無(wú)性繁殖的茶葉

60、產(chǎn)量是會(huì)受到負(fù)影響的(Wijeratne, 1994)。給出的這些結(jié)論可以推測(cè)出，斯里蘭卡的預(yù)期氣候變化，比如說(shuō)氣溫升高，氣候變更加干燥 （ADB，1994），都將不利于茶葉的生產(chǎn)。</p><p>　　在一個(gè)短時(shí)間里，極端的降雨事件也會(huì)因水土流失而導(dǎo)致不可計(jì)量的破壞。肥沃力的破壞，雨水儲(chǔ)存能力的下降，硬土層的暴露，根部的暴露以及微生物活動(dòng)的減少，都是一些水土流失的負(fù)面結(jié)果，都不利于茶葉的生長(zhǎng)和產(chǎn)量。隨著土壤表皮

61、的流失，可種植的土壤會(huì)變成禿地或者是無(wú)生產(chǎn)力的土地，這些土地既不能用于茶葉再種植，也不能用于其它農(nóng)業(yè)用途。并且，這些土地的修復(fù)需要很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，極有可能是不經(jīng)濟(jì)的。此外，由于陽(yáng)光的不足和疾病發(fā)生率的增加，比如說(shuō)茶樹(shù)也會(huì)因?yàn)榇罅康慕涤隃p少生長(zhǎng)。很明顯，在斯里蘭卡，預(yù)期的氣候變化，比如說(shuō)周期性的暖季，干旱和不穩(wěn)定分布的強(qiáng)降雨，毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)得都會(huì)影響茶產(chǎn)業(yè)。茶葉需要均勻的降雨分布來(lái)保證持續(xù)的生產(chǎn)力。雖然大氣二氧化碳水平的增加會(huì)加強(qiáng)光合作用，但是由于

62、比如高溫和劣質(zhì)的土壤條件，這個(gè)有利影響不能夠用來(lái)彌補(bǔ)預(yù)期的不利影響。</p><p>　　現(xiàn)在，大于50%的斯里蘭卡茶地是土壤表層覆蓋薄弱的播種地。雖然這些種子會(huì)逐步地適應(yīng)環(huán)境壓力，但是由于劣質(zhì)土壤和不熟練的管理，他們承受干燥氣候的能力正在退化。大部分這樣的土地都沿著斜坡種植（但不是在等高線上），因此，也很容易受水土流失的影響。</p><p>　　最近的研究顯示，即使是播種茶山地，也會(huì)由

63、于不優(yōu)的遮陽(yáng)條件和不良的土質(zhì)而免不了干旱的影響（Yatawatte,1992）。因此，播種茶山地也將因?yàn)闅夂蜃兓艿讲豢晒烙?jì)的危害。遮陽(yáng)是茶葉種植的很關(guān)鍵的一個(gè)要求，遮陽(yáng)樹(shù)能夠減少氣溫，保持土壤，以及增加相對(duì)潮濕度。20世紀(jì)60年代初，在失去了遮陽(yáng)樹(shù)之后（隨著遮陽(yáng)樹(shù)的失去，用于增強(qiáng)茶葉吸收的光線密集度也會(huì)增加），斯里蘭卡的茶葉種植，對(duì)陰涼的管理是很欠缺的。在這種情況下，茶產(chǎn)業(yè)更容易受全球氣溫變暖和水土流失的影響。</p>