中國房地產(chǎn)市場中期校正和長期增長【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　　中文4092字</b></p><p>　　外 文 翻 譯</p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p><p>　　China’s Real Estate Market：</p><p>　　Mid-Term Correction and Long-Ter

2、m Growth</p><p>　　Along with China’s economic slowdown and policy tightening, the real estate market has been experiencing a mid-term correction since late 2007. This round of property sector downturn is cyc

3、lical rather than secular and will last from two to two and a half years (September 2007–early 2010). From a longer-term perspective, the factors for sustainable growth of the housing market remain sound. These include r

4、elatively strong economic growth, positive demographic trends, urbanization, and upgrades i</p><p>　　Along with the credit crunch and global economic recession in the United States, China’s gross domestic pr

5、oduct (GDP) growth started to slow down in the second half of 2007 with the real estate market experiencing a mid-term correction since late 2007. Understanding the development and current state of this sector is importa

6、nt in answering questions regarding the pace of China’s overall growth and the likely government policies in the coming years.</p><p>　　China’s Real Estate Market Development</p><p>　　The real e

7、state market began to take form after China’s Constitution was changed to permit transfer of state-owned land-use rights in 1988. Since the housing market reform from 1998 to 1999, commodity housing has come to China’ s

8、property market, replacing and mainstreaming state-provided housing. Being market-oriented, private developers built mainly commodity housing, selling to a middle- to high-income group.</p><p>　　The private

9、sector’s incentive in the development of low-end housing is low due to lower profitability, lack of competition, and payment of a penalty for being lean and efficient. Therefore, government needs to take the initiative i

10、n the development of housing for the low- to middleincome group which would be considered as “quasi-public goods.” </p><p>　　Real estate has become a political football, kicked in different directions by com

11、peting interest groups. Regulators find themselves in multiple positions, enjoying revenues from land sales and property taxes, but are under great pressure to cool off the market when it is overheating and to revive the

12、 market when it is falling sharply.</p><p>　　The current real estate market downturn started with a policy tightening in late 2007. In the first half of 2007, China’s GDP growth reached a fiveyear record hig

13、h of 12.1 percent, with investment and lending expected to accelerate. Along with the global energy and commodity bubbles,inflation was increasing rapidly, and complaints about rising housing prices and declining afforda

14、bility became widespread. The American subprime crisis left a profound warning about the danger of a housing bubble an</p><p>　　The most important component of China’s macroeconomic tightening policy package

15、 launched in late 2007 was the austere measures imposed on the property sector. These can be summarized as: (1) tightening land policy to prevent land hoarding and improve efficiency of land use; (2) tightening mortgage

16、policy to reduce speculative investments; (3) tightening lending standards to reduce developer leverage; (4) increasing the supply of smaller and cheaper housing units to lower the average prices of re</p><p&g

17、t;　　Another macroeconomic factor was the influence of wealth originating from the stock market. This may have contributed to rising property prices, but it also contributed to the succeeding downside bust. The Shanghai A

18、-share composite index went up by 473 percent between January 2006 and October 2007, then subsequently fell by more than 60 percent. </p><p>　　The driving forces of the sharp correction in the stock market i

19、nclude: (1) interest rate hikes, as well as other credit and investment tightening measures, reducing liquidity coming into the stock market; (2) the negative external outlook; (3) the prospect of a surging supply of sha

20、res produced by the unfreezing of nontradable shares and new share issuance.</p><p>　　The property sector had been hit hard. Consequently, real estate investment year-to-date (YTD) growth slowed substantiall

21、y from 33.5 percent to 22.7 percent year-to-year in the period from January to November 2008, and in the low single digits in the period from July to November 2008. It has triggered diminishing demand for key constructio

22、n materials, such as steel, cement, and aluminum, and housing-related consumer durable goods. The slowdown in production of key materials has been exacerbated </p><p>　　Three factors caused the rather sharp

23、slowdown, including (in order of importance): (1) cooling down in real estate investment; (2) massive destocking of raw material inputs; (3) slowdown in external demand. In our view, weakening external demand is not the

24、primary reason for the sharp deterioration because deceleration in exports has been taking place gradually since mid-2007. It would have been an “imported soft landing” in action had there not been the heavy-handed tight

25、ening measures against</p><p>　　The policy-induced decline in real estate investment growth gives rise to risks of a “domestic-made hard landing.” Against this backdrop, the authorities made a drastic change

26、 in policy orientation in the fourth quarter of 2008 by implementing expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, as well as rolling back a majority of the austere measures imposed on the property sector.</p><p&

27、gt;　　On November 9, 2008, the State Council announced a RMB4 trillion fiscal stimulus package with RMB900 billion to be invested in social welfare housing. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China announced four consecutive

28、 interest rate cuts in the prior three months. The real mortgage rate went as low as 4.28 percent, the lowest in the past five years.</p><p>　　More favorable policies regarding China’s property sector were u

29、nveiled on December 17, 2008. </p><p>　　Three-Stage Mid-Term Correction</p><p>　　We believe that the property sector downturn is cyclical rather than secular. Along with China’s economic slowdow

30、n and A-share market decline, a mid-term correction period is expected in the physical property market, lasting for two to two and a half years (September 2007–early 2010).</p><p>　　China’s property market h

31、as passed Stage 1, from September 2007 to September 2008. In Stage 1, the sector struggled in a tough operating environment. Housing sales and land purchases fell, and prices in some cities dropped, the most notable case

32、 being in Shenzhen, where average home prices fell by 10 percent from their peak. Real estate investment growth dropped sharply to 13 percent in July 2008, and even slower growth in the subsequent months, and continued l

33、iquidity tightening among developer</p><p>　　Stage 2 lasted from October 2008 to March 2009. In the last quarter of 2008, Chinese real investment experienced a “heart attack,” a disastrous result for fixed a

34、sset investment growth, eventually dragging down GDP growth. The housing price dropped sharply by 2.35 percent in the last quarter of 2008. The Chinese central government understood the importance of the real estate sect

35、or to economic growth and applied an “electric shock” to get real estate investment beating again.</p><p>　　In Stage 2, more supportive measures have been issued. However, given the deteriorating economic co

36、nditions around the globe, the transaction volume should be revived but not the selling price. Most developers have to be more realistic and cut prices to protect their sales volume from being squeezed further, especiall

37、y with the risk of sizable inventories of social welfare housing coming into the market. Therefore, we saw property selling prices decline by 0.93 percent and the transaction volume</p><p>　　Stage 3 marks th

38、e period of recovery and rebound. China’s economy rebounded more swiftly from the global downturn than any other big economy, thanks largely to its enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus. According to National Bureau of S

39、tatistics, China’s GDP grew by 8.7 percent in 2009 as a whole and 7.9 percent, 9.1 percent, and 10.7 percent in the last three quarters respectively. And China’s home prices in 70 large- and medium-size cities, a housing

40、 price trend barometer, rose 3.01 percent, 2</p><p>　　Long-Term Growth and Prosperity</p><p>　　From the long-term perspective, the cyclical downturn and upturn from September 2007 to early 2010

41、in China’s property market can be viewed as a mid-term correction in a long-run story of growth and prosperity. The factors that underpin sustainable growth of the housing market remain sound, such as relatively strong e

42、conomic growth, positive demographic trends, urbanization, and upgrades in living standards.</p><p>　　In the next few years, China can achieve GDP growth of 8 percent, which together with other stable macroe

43、conomic conditions will offer a favorable macro environment for its property sector. China is expected to continue experiencing several demographic trends over the next decade. This will have many positive implications f

44、or all types of real estate. First, China’s 1.3 billion population is expected to increase by 2 percent to 1.31 billion by the end of 2014. There is a bulge in age distributio</p><p>　　More important, China

45、is at an early stage in the urbanization process. China’s burgeoning economic success has resulted in a historically unprecedented surge of urbanization that will continue.</p><p>　　It is expected that urban

46、ization will maintain a growth rate of 1 percent per annum for the next five years with the urbanization rate increasing to 50 percent by the end of 2013. If the current trend holds, by 2025 nearly one billion people wil

47、l live in urban areas. China will have 221 cities with more than a million inhabitants—compared with 35 in Europe today. In all likelihood continuing urbanization will ensure that China will fulfill the ambitious economi

48、c growth target, set out at the sev</p><p>　　Conclusion</p><p>　　The long-term fundamentals of China’s property market look solid and bright, and the government would like to see a stable and he

49、althy development of the housing sector. With that in view, long-term governmental objectives would include: (1) keeping the property sector a pillar industry and a growth engine; (2) increasing housing ownership as part

50、 of the effort to build a harmonious society; (3) preventing and reducing the risk of a housing sector bubble; (4) preventing housing prices from risin</p><p>　　Given these considerations, we think that the

51、government is likely to adopt the following policy measures in the coming years: (1) properly control land resources and contain speculative investments; (2) ease investment approval and increase bank lending to support

52、economic housing; (3) increase government spending to build more economic and low-end rental housing; (4) speed up urban area expansion and urban center renovation.</p><p>　　SOURCE: Xi Rao,Yinggang Zhou，2010

53、，“China's Real Estate Market: Mid-Term Correction and Long-Term Growth”，The Chinese Economy, vol. 43, no. 2, March–April 2010, pp. 23–32</p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　中國房地產(chǎn)市場：中期校正

54、和長期增長</p><p>　　隨著中國經(jīng)濟的增長放緩,政策緊縮,房地產(chǎn)市場自2007年下半年開始經(jīng)歷了中期校正時期。這一輪的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)具有周期性的低迷而不是長期的，這種低迷將會持續(xù)兩年到兩年半，即從2007年9月開始至2010年初左右結(jié)束。從長期的角度來看,影響房地產(chǎn)市場可持續(xù)發(fā)展的因素仍然是良好的。這些因素包括相對較強的經(jīng)濟增長,積極的人口發(fā)展趨勢，城市化和人民生活水平的日漸提高。</p>&l

55、t;p>　　隨著信貸的緊縮和全球經(jīng)濟的不景氣,從2007年下半年開始在房地產(chǎn)市場經(jīng)歷了中期校正的影響下，中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增長率放慢了腳步。解析房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)這一領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展前景和現(xiàn)處狀況，最重要的是回答關(guān)于中國總體各項增長率的增長速度和政府在未來幾年即將推出和發(fā)展的政策。</p><p>　　中國房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展</p><p>　　自從在1988年中國的憲法改變成為允許國有土

56、地使用權(quán)的轉(zhuǎn)讓，中國的房地產(chǎn)市場就開始成型了。從1998年至1999年住房市場的改革以來，商品房就已經(jīng)進入到中國的房地產(chǎn)市場,成為中國房地產(chǎn)市場的主流化房屋經(jīng)濟，并代替了舊式的由政府提供住房的政策行為。本著以市場經(jīng)濟為導向的原則，私有的開發(fā)商們?yōu)榱烁N近市場,他們把土地主要用來建設(shè)商品房，然后銷售給那些中產(chǎn)——高收入的群體。</p><p>　　這些私有化的經(jīng)營部門把對于發(fā)展低端住房市場所投入的資源少的狀況，歸結(jié)

57、于低端住房市場較低的利潤,低端住房市場缺乏競爭,和他們要為管理的精簡和工作的高效支付多余的費用等借口。因此,政府需要采取積極的措施來為那些將要購買住房的中低收入團體發(fā)展低端的住房市場。</p><p>　　房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)成為了一場政治足球比賽，它被對于房地產(chǎn)市場有興趣的房地產(chǎn)競爭商們在各種不同的方向上踢來踢去。監(jiān)管的機構(gòu)們發(fā)現(xiàn)他們自己在多個位置方面上,享受著出售土地所帶來的收入和財產(chǎn)稅方面得到的稅收收入,但是這一

58、切的享受都是建立在當房地產(chǎn)市場過熱時以及房地產(chǎn)市場交易大幅度下跌時你必須想法設(shè)法去冷卻它的這種巨大壓力之下。</p><p>　　現(xiàn)在的房地產(chǎn)市場的低迷狀況是從2007年下半年出現(xiàn)的政策緊縮影響之下開始的。在2007年的上半年,中國的GDP增長率以12.1%的成績達到了其五年來創(chuàng)紀錄的突破，緊跟著投資和貸款也將加速增長。伴隨著全球能源缺乏和商品泡沫經(jīng)濟,通貨膨脹正在迅速加重它的危害,而抱怨房價上漲以及人們購買力的

59、下降將要變得流行起來。美國的次貸危機留下了深刻的危險，并且向我們發(fā)出房地產(chǎn)泡沫經(jīng)濟會帶來嚴重危害的警告,與此同時警惕我們對于更正房地產(chǎn)泡沫經(jīng)濟是刻不容緩的。 正是在這種背景之下,政府部門不得不逐步加強政府的宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)控政策以及在整個宏觀政策緊縮的情況之下把房地產(chǎn)業(yè)單獨挑出來作為政府政策制定的獨立行業(yè)。</p><p>　　組成中國宏觀經(jīng)濟緊縮政策最重要的部分就是在2007年下半年政府推出了嚴厲的政策措施來阻止和減

60、緩在房地產(chǎn)市場橫行的這股歪風。這些可以概括為:(1)推出了土地緊縮政策，是為了防止土地的囤積居奇并以此來提高土地高效的利用率;(2)抵押貸款的收緊政策,是為了降低投機取巧的投資者們;(3)信貸標準的嚴格制定和縝密監(jiān)督，是為了減少不良的開發(fā)商們對土地的盲目不當?shù)拈_發(fā)利用;(4)面積越來越小，價格越來越便宜的住房單位的供應(yīng)數(shù)量將會增長以用來降低住宅市場的平均房屋價格。</p><p>　　另一個影響宏觀經(jīng)濟的因素是來

61、源于股票市場的財富影響因素。這個因素有可能會導致房地產(chǎn)價格的上漲,但與此同時它也帶來了大幅度的突然性下降。上海A股綜合指數(shù)在2006年1月份至2007年10月份期間上升到了473個百分點，但是緊接著又大幅度的下降了超過六十個百分點。</p><p>　　關(guān)于要對股票市場進行激烈調(diào)整的強大推動力包括:(1)增加利率，以及對其他信貸和投資也采取相應(yīng)的緊縮措施,同時減少流動性資金進入到股票市場；(2)負面的外部性前景；

62、(3)由未凍結(jié)的股票和新股票發(fā)行所產(chǎn)生的股票供應(yīng)市場飆升的預(yù)測。</p><p>　　房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)受到了嚴重的打擊。因此，年復(fù)一年日復(fù)一日的房地產(chǎn)投資者的增長速率開始在2008年1月至11月期間從原本的33.5%放緩到22.7%，在2008年的7月至11月期間增長速率更降低到了個位數(shù)的程度。它引發(fā)了重點建筑材料需求的減少,例如鋼鐵材料、水泥材料、鋁材料以及與住宅消耗相關(guān)的耐用消費貨品等的減少。關(guān)鍵建筑材料生產(chǎn)的

63、放緩加劇了大宗商品價格上漲這一狀況的突然解體。在一般性的情況下，這是由于全球的金融危機所造成的, 但是自2008年9月以來加大力度降低杠桿風險這一行為的特殊影響下,導致了對儲量緊縮的原材料進行了一場大規(guī)模的進口輸入。一場巨大的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展放緩危機就是在2008年下半年度的這種狀況下發(fā)生的。</p><p>　　三大因素造成了相當急劇的經(jīng)濟衰退,其中包括有(按因素的重要性進行排序)：(1)房地產(chǎn)投資市場的投資冷卻；(2

64、)大量原材料的進口輸入；(3)外部需求的放緩。在我們看來，外部需求疲軟開始急劇惡化的主要原因不是因為在2007年中期就已經(jīng)發(fā)生的出口外貿(mào)商品逐漸減少的這一經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象。它將會造成“進口傾銷”這一狀況，而且與財政部門對抗的那些緊縮政策也已經(jīng)不再管用了。</p><p>　　在房地產(chǎn)投資市場出現(xiàn)的政策性下降帶來了相關(guān)風險的增長。在這種背景下,當局于2008年第四季度在政策取向方面做了一個巨大的改變，此項重大改變決策的實現(xiàn)

65、是通過實施擴張性的貨幣和財政政策,以及采取大量嚴格的措施來抑制住房地產(chǎn)市場橫行多年的歪風惡習。</p><p>　　2008年11月9日,國務(wù)院公布了一項4萬億元人民幣的財政刺激方案，其中有 900億元人民幣是用來投資社會福利住房的。與此同時,中國人民銀行宣布前三個月期間將連續(xù)四次進行降息。真正的優(yōu)惠是按揭利率低至4.28%,達到了過去五年來的最低利率。</p><p>　　更多關(guān)于中國房

66、地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的優(yōu)惠政策已經(jīng)在2008年12月17日得以公布了。</p><p>　　三個階段的中期修正 </p><p>　　我們認為，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)不景氣是周期性的，而不是持續(xù)性的。隨著中國經(jīng)濟的放緩和A股市場的下跌，預(yù)計在房地產(chǎn)市場進行中期調(diào)整的調(diào)整期會持續(xù)兩年到兩年半（2007年9月，2010年年初）。</p><p>　　中國的房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)歷了第一階段，即從200

67、7年9月至2008年9月。在第一階段，該行業(yè)在艱難的經(jīng)營環(huán)境中掙扎。房屋銷售和土地購買都減少了，一些城市的房價也下降，其中最顯著的例子在深圳，平均房價從峰值下降了10%。房地產(chǎn)投資增長速度在2008年7月也大幅下降至百分之十三，甚至在隨后的幾個月增長緩慢，繼續(xù)開發(fā)的房地產(chǎn)人員之間的流動性也相應(yīng)緊縮了。</p><p>　　第二階段從2008年10月持續(xù)到2009年3月。在2008年最后一個季度，中國實際投資經(jīng)歷了

68、“心臟病發(fā)作”這一危機，為固定資產(chǎn)投資增長帶來了災(zāi)難性后果，最終拖累了GDP的增長。在2008年最后一個季度，住房價格大幅下降了2.35%。中方體會到中央政府的房地產(chǎn)部門對經(jīng)濟增長的重要性，所以采用了“觸電”政策使房地產(chǎn)投資獲得再次跳動。</p><p>　　在第二階段，更有利的措施已經(jīng)發(fā)出。然而，鑒于全球日益惡化的經(jīng)濟條件，首先應(yīng)當恢復(fù)交易量而不是售價。大多數(shù)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)人員必須接受現(xiàn)實，降低房屋價格，以防止進一

69、步受到擠壓，特別是隨著龐大的社會福利性住房投放到市場，他們的房屋銷售量將面臨存貨風險。因此，我們看到房屋銷售價格下降了0.93%，交易量開始在2009年第一季度趨于穩(wěn)定。</p><p>　　第三階段標志著恢復(fù)和回升期。中國的經(jīng)濟比其它任何大型經(jīng)濟體制都更迅速的反彈，這主要得益于其巨大的貨幣和全球經(jīng)濟衰退的財政刺激。根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局統(tǒng)計，中國的GDP增長以2009年作為一個例子，7.9%，9.1%，10.7%，在過

70、去三個季度分別增長了8.7%。而在70個大型和中型城市中，住房價格走勢的圖表表示在2009年3月以來的三個季度中國的房價分別上漲了3.01%，2.98%，2.06%。住宅物業(yè)價格的急劇增長加速了政府的擔憂，一個全國性的房地產(chǎn)泡沫正在形成。中國政府開始采取措施，縮小泡沫。 2010年1月20日，國務(wù)院辦公廳發(fā)出通知，需要中央政府部門和地方政府加強管理，穩(wěn)定市場預(yù)期，促進房地產(chǎn)市場穩(wěn)定健康的發(fā)展。該通知列出的11項具體措施包括增加對低收入家

71、庭和普通居民住宅的低成本住房供給的措施，鼓勵的同時又抑制投機和投資購買，加強房地產(chǎn)項目貸款風險管理和合理購房的市場監(jiān)督，并指出地方政府的責任。我們預(yù)計物業(yè)價格和交易量在2010年再次穩(wěn)定。</p><p><b>　　長期增長和繁榮</b></p><p>　　從長遠的角度來看，周期性衰退和復(fù)蘇，從2007年9月上旬的中國房地產(chǎn)市場情況來判定2010年的中國房地產(chǎn)市場

72、可以被看作是在一個增長和繁榮的中期調(diào)整期。房屋市場的可持續(xù)增長依然良好是支撐房地產(chǎn)市場的因素，例如相對強勁的經(jīng)濟增長，積極的人口趨勢，城市化，以及生活水準的升級也是支撐的因素。</p><p>　　在未來的幾年里，中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值可以增長百分之八，連同其他穩(wěn)定的宏觀經(jīng)濟條件將給房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)提供一個有利增長的宏觀環(huán)境。中國預(yù)計在未來幾十年將繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)人口發(fā)展趨勢。這為所有類型的房地產(chǎn)帶來了許多積極的意義。首先，中國擁有

73、13億人口預(yù)計2014年底將增加百分之二。有一個25-39歲的人口年齡分布會隆起，提供了大部分置業(yè)人士。第二，家庭的數(shù)量可能會大幅增加，到2013年，以目前的平均家庭規(guī)模預(yù)計，會快速下降到每家三口人。這應(yīng)該造成對新住房有強勁的需求。第三，工作年齡人口預(yù)計將增加。在失業(yè)率不變的水平，這應(yīng)該有助于鞏固經(jīng)濟增長和加強對房地產(chǎn)的潛在需求。</p><p>　　更重要的是，中國正處在城市化進程中的初期階段。中國蓬勃發(fā)展的經(jīng)

74、濟已導致了城市化進程將繼續(xù)史無前例的前進。</p><p>　　預(yù)計，城市化在未來五年將保持以每年百分之一的增長速度增加，到了2013年底會達到百分之五十的比率。如果按照目前的趨勢發(fā)展下去，到2025年將近10億人口將居住在城市地區(qū)。中國將有221個城市擁有超過一百萬的居民，相比之下，歐洲目前只有35個城市而已。在所有的可能性下，繼續(xù)城市化進程將確保中國將履行在2007年黨的十七大雄心勃勃定下的經(jīng)濟增長目標即到2

75、020年人均國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值翻兩番。對于房地產(chǎn)而言，能實現(xiàn)中國有大量新的城市房屋這個加速中國城市化規(guī)模的承諾。</p><p><b>　　結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　中國的房地產(chǎn)市場長期保持穩(wěn)定，明亮，政府希望看到住房部門的一個穩(wěn)定，健康的發(fā)展。有了這個觀點，政府的長期目標將包括：（1）保持房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)和增長引擎，（2）為努力建設(shè)一個和諧社會而增加一部分房

76、屋的所有權(quán);（3）預(yù)防和降低了住房部門的泡沫風險;（4）防止上漲過快，防止投機者的炒賣，這會影響社會住房價格的穩(wěn)定。</p><p>　　鑒于這些考慮，我們認為政府可能會采取在未來數(shù)年采取以下政策措施：（1）適當控制土地資源，遏制投機性投資;（2）緩?fù)顿Y審批和增加銀行貸款，以支持經(jīng)濟適用住房;（3）增加政府支出，以建立更多的經(jīng)濟和低端租住房屋;（4）加快城市面積的擴大和城市中心維修。</p><