法學專業(yè)外文翻譯--紐約犯罪率減少的原因

1、<p>　　紐約犯罪率減少的原因</p><p>　　“警察們通過調查一致認為減少罪行拘捕率的原因是什么？在90年代，重罪拘捕率（除了機動車偷竊案件以外）從50%上升到70%。在夜賊拘捕率增加到10%的時候，搶劫的數量則從3.2%減少到2.7%。在強盜的拘捕率上升到10%的時候，盜竊案件的數量則從5.9%減少到5.7%?！?lt;/p><p>　　90年代期間，與美國整體相比，紐約的

2、犯罪率顯著下降。在紐約，暴力犯罪率下降56%以上，與整個國家相比較大約下降28%。在紐約與物產有關的犯罪中，其犯罪率達到65%，但全國的犯罪率卻下降了26%。</p><p>　　紐約罪行減少的原因在很大程度上應歸因于前魯道夫朱利安尼市的市長提出并實施的“采取強制手段”的政策．他的政策最突出的變化是維護社會底層的治安，打擊預防小的犯罪。這種政策被稱為“消除隱患政策”。就這個理論來分析，小混亂或小事件是可以導致更大

3、的罪行的，所以不僅要“治患于已然”更要“防患于未然”。魯道夫朱利安尼市長先生曾在1998年提出了針對此政策的解釋，“顯然地，非法的街墻畫和謀殺是兩種程度完全不同的犯罪行為，但他們同樣都是持續(xù)存在無法根除的犯罪行為，并且它們是有可能引發(fā)其他更多的程度不同的犯罪行為?！边@種政策確實有效果，特別是對搶劫和汽車盜竊。政府利用這種“輕罪逮捕措施”來維持治安。</p><p>　　90年代期間，紐約市輕罪逮捕數量增加了70%

4、。輕罪拘捕的數量已經上升了10%，這表明“消除隱患政策”被頻繁地實施了。其顯著效果是，盜竊案件下降了，從3.2%下降到2.5%，而汽車盜竊案由2.1%下降到1.6%。但是作者認為這種數據的下降并不完全是由于在監(jiān)獄中的輕罪犯拘捕數量上升造成的。換句話說，作者經研究認為，增加輕罪拘捕雖然會影響謀殺、襲擊案件和爆炸盜竊案件，而且效果明顯，但從長遠看其效果則會減退。</p><p>　　共同研究的人員找出可能影響犯罪率的

5、幾個因素：</p><p>　　研究警察的增量與囚犯和犯罪行為之間的數量變化之間的因素是必要的。比如，90年代的紐約市，警察增加了35%，囚犯人數上升到24%以上，（這包括人口統計數量的變動和年輕人犯罪數量的下降）。由此可見高犯罪率的城市雇用更多的警察，并不是說警方數量增加導致犯罪數量的增加，而是說犯罪率在很大程度上與警方數量有十分密切的聯系。同樣地，當犯罪正在上升，監(jiān)獄人口數量也趨于上升，換句話說，犯罪率與監(jiān)獄

6、人數也相關，這點并不奇怪。</p><p>　　少年犯罪率的變化與處罰有關。1978年到1993年之間的幾年中，將紐約、休斯敦、洛杉磯幾個城市的犯罪率和其他主要城市進行比較。其結論是：城市的整體犯罪數量均有所下降。雖然整體趨勢明朗，但是飚升的少年犯罪率打破了這一好勢態(tài)。例如，1978年到1993年幾年時間內，即使成年人謀殺罪的拘捕率下降了7%，但少年犯謀殺罪的拘捕率卻飚升到了177%。在同一時間內，被拘捕的暴力犯

7、罪的少年犯數量躍升了79%，而成年人的可比數字僅僅上升了31% 。成績效果研究學院研究人員史蒂文．萊維特仔細地研究了少年違法犯罪和刑罰之間的關系（編號為6191的工作文件中指出）。</p><p>　　他在認真研究了少年犯罪與處罰之間的關系后得出結論：嚴厲地加大處罰少年犯的力度對于青少年犯罪具有特殊的意義和較為深遠的影響。</p><p>　　具體地說，在過去二十年中，青少年犯罪率的增長速

8、度大大超出了成年人的犯罪率。但是，在同一時間，在監(jiān)獄中成年人罪犯的人數急劇增長，而在押解的少年監(jiān)獄中，少年犯的人數卻沒有明顯的持續(xù)的增長。</p><p>　　他的理論是青少年的犯罪率和成年人的犯罪率存在差異是一個很合理的現象。少年犯罪，其中大部分都是由于毫無意義的事件引起的，而且在很沖動的心態(tài)下發(fā)生的，并且此類行為很殘酷。但是與成年人相比，青少年面對處罰更加嚴肅認真。舉個例子，根據一個粗略的統計（同年的情況下，

9、成年人和青少年暴力犯罪率幾乎是相同的），1978年制裁青少年犯罪與制裁成年人同樣嚴厲，但是到1993年制裁青少年犯罪卻相對寬松了，許多量刑或處罰是成年人犯罪制裁規(guī)定的一半。而相對處罰變化后由此導致的結果是，青少年犯罪率比同年情況下成年人犯罪率增加了60%。</p><p>　　這個理論經事實有力地證明了：青少年犯罪率的降低與嚴厲的懲罰成正比。</p><p>　　萊維特并沒有找到一個令人信

10、服的持續(xù)懲罰少年犯罪和將來參與少年犯罪的很好的法律或法規(guī)，它可能是要靠青少年們自覺地努力。萊維特認為，社會的誘惑太多，使青少年容易受到誘惑而作出非法的事情，這就要看青少年人的心理素質，萊維特是謹慎地強調,他的分析并沒有顯示明確的公共政策應需要更多地明確什么可行,什么不可行但是應該更加嚴謹地規(guī)定規(guī)章制度，嚴厲地懲戒青少年人的犯罪。</p><p>　　青年高工資降低平均犯罪率?！?0%的工資減少導致青年人的犯罪率從

11、12%增加到18%”。根據由成績效果研究學院研究員杰弗高葛的最新一項市場研究得出結論：工資和青年犯罪有十分密切的關系（文件編號為5983的工作文件中指出）。工資水平的高低與犯罪行為數量的多少有密切的聯系，這就解釋了過去20年來，工資降低而男青年犯罪率有所增加的原因。這也或多或少地解釋了為什么黑人比白人的犯罪率較高。杰弗高葛主要調查研究80年代出生的14歲至23歲的青年。他指出，這項“80后青年調查”是“十分必要且影響深遠的調查”，其中包

12、括了許多方面的問題，例如包括問受訪者是否曾犯下某些類型的罪行，“他們犯罪所得的利益是多少，工資是多少”等。在這項抽樣調查中，他發(fā)現“無論他們是否參與犯罪，幾乎每個人都是有工作的?！彼贸鼋Y論：“年輕人很順應價值獎勵，應給予起更多的物質鼓勵，使他們可以通過合法手段獲取更多金錢，從而減少他們犯罪的可能。”最后，杰弗高葛指出，“工資水平在很大程度上說明了犯罪的趨勢?！彼f，“隨著人們年紀的增長，他們的謀生能力增加，應給年輕人提供較好的、規(guī)范的

13、勞動力市場機會，從而減少犯罪。”</p><p>　　槍支越少意味著殺人案件越少?！?996年的研究表明擁有槍支的人數減少了，則持槍殺人案件明顯下降了三分之一?！?lt;/p><p>　　根據成績效果研究學院的研究人員馬克狄格最新的研究結果得出結論，人們持有槍支的數量的增加導致更高的持槍殺人案件發(fā)生率。而美國的法律允許公民攜帶或者隱藏槍支等武器，因此，國家卻不能根本地消除槍殺案件的發(fā)生。（編號

14、為0054186的工作文件中指出）</p><p>　　從理論上講,美國對于擁有公民槍支的行為是不反對的，因為他們尊重人權，但是美國又對于持有槍支犯罪嚴厲打擊，因為要維護國家的治安。于是美國政府對于公民持有槍支這一行為呈現出模棱兩可的態(tài)度. 由于國家的嚴厲打擊持槍犯罪行為，假若犯罪分子不敢作案,那么他們則有可能潛在藏匿槍支，而公民們（如受害者</p><p>　?。﹦t更可能迫切地持有槍械（

15、因為想要防衛(wèi)）, 隨后可能導致更多擁有槍支的犯罪活動. 雖然不僅僅是槍支增加犯罪活動的發(fā)生概率, 任何一種形式的行為都有可能引發(fā)犯罪，而槍支的增加只是增加了犯罪率升高的一種可能性,特定或者不特定的人們對于槍械引起的案件的處理會激進，甚至是因對抗而引起流血事件，即會導致被害人死亡, 于是得出結論，增加持有槍支的數量則將使事態(tài)推向犯罪率增加的局勢，而相反的，減少或控制槍械的擁有數量，則會有效地減少或控制槍械殺人案件的發(fā)生.</p>

16、;<p>　　馬克狄格指出,大多數人犯罪所使用的槍支是從二手市場所得到的或者是偷竊來的，人們（無論是犯罪分子還是普通公民）這樣迅速擁有槍支的方式, 再加上罪犯到處都可以買到槍。馬克狄格認為,州和縣一級的犯罪發(fā)生率的變動與擁有槍支數量的變動呈正比的關系。他的調查結果顯示,擁有槍支犯罪的成因, 不僅僅是反映個人購買槍支就會增加犯罪活動。馬克狄格認為,今后要增加監(jiān)督持槍的數量，從而可能降低槍殺案件發(fā)生率，當然，對于非持槍殺人案，

17、則與持有槍械并無相應的關系。他的調查結果顯示,其他的罪類型越來越少,而槍殺案件增多，主要是由于槍支數量增加造成的。應討論是否應立法,允許或者限制個人攜帶隱藏武器,因為這對犯罪率有重要的影響。</p><p>　　預防犯罪意見：你怎樣才能防止犯罪？并非所有犯罪是可以預防的，但是你可以將犯罪機率盡可能地變?yōu)椴豢赡堋?lt;/p><p>　　加強刑罰減少犯罪率?！胺梢?guī)定更長的刑期，已能有效地減低犯

18、罪率。短短的三年間，由于法律涵蓋的深度廣度的加強和擴大，犯罪率明顯下跌8%左右。根據大膽預測，七年后法律變化將帶來更可觀的勢態(tài)，同樣罪行率將下降20%?！?lt;/p><p>　　近年來，幾乎每一個國家都采取了一些法律新形式的“改良”的方式來打擊犯罪。這些法律屬于不同的種類，涉及面也不同，包括判處有期徒刑的法律，累犯慣犯的處罰加強等。不管它們涉及的領域如何，它們都有一個共同的特點：嚴厲懲罰罪犯犯下的嚴重罪行。<

19、/p><p>　　成績效果研究學院研究員丹尼爾斯勒和史蒂文．萊維特共同研究分析得出一個結論：法律規(guī)定更長的刑期，能有效地降低犯罪。（編號為6484的工作文件中指出）</p><p>　　具體來說，當前犯罪率的跌幅——犯罪率大約下降是總體的一半，是由于法律的威懾作用。犯罪分子十分懼怕等待著他們的是嚴厲的判決和長期的服刑，因此降低了犯罪率。</p><p>　　事實上，近幾

20、年來法律的改良持續(xù)穩(wěn)步的增長對于這段時間減少犯罪也是很有幫助的。因為罪犯服刑的刑期較長，多年后，這部法律的改變，帶來的正面影響是，罪犯們仍然被關在監(jiān)獄里，而不是在街頭作案。</p><p>　　在另一方面,我們研究法律改良的另一正面效果：這樣的法律可能導致因犯罪而被監(jiān)禁的犯人長大后,由于他們積極改造多年了，這類的從監(jiān)獄釋放的老人們是起著一個非常有效率地運用資源, 因為個人的年齡的增長，因為心態(tài)的成熟……另犯罪活動

21、迅速下降，事實上,這是發(fā)揮了極其重要的作用。</p><p>　　作者最后總結，在更廣更深范圍的懲罰和較低形式的懲罰中，最終前者更能證明可以有效地打擊犯罪，因為前者更能發(fā)揮威懾作用，實際上也更能強有力的奏效。</p><p>　　What Reduced Crime in New York City</p><p>　　During the 1990s, crime

22、 rates in New York City dropped dramatically, even more than in the United States as a whole. Violent crime declined by more than 56 percent in the City, compared to about 28 percent in the nation as whole. Property crim

23、es tumbled by about 65 percent, but fell only 26 percent nationally.</p><p>　　Many attribute New York's crime reduction to specific "get-tough" policies carried out by former Mayor Rudolph Giul

24、iani's administration. The most prominent of his policy changes was the aggressive policing of lower-level crimes, a policy which has been dubbed the "broken windows" approach to law enforcement. In this vi

25、ew, small disorders lead to larger ones and perhaps even to crime. As Mr. Guiliani told the press in 1998, "Obviously murder and graffiti are two vastly different crimes. But they</p><p>　　Over the 1990

26、s, misdemeanor arrests increased 70 percent in New York City. When arrests for misdemeanors had risen by 10 percent, indicating increased use of the "broken windows" method, robberies dropped 2.5 to 3.2 percent

27、, and motor vehicle theft declined by 1.6 to 2.1 percent. But this decline was not the result of more of those involved in misdemeanors being incapacitated from further crimes by being in prison: prison stays for misdeme

28、anors are short and only 9.4 percent of misdemeanor arres</p><p>　　Co-authors identify several factors that could affect crime rates.</p><p>　　Identifying the causal link between increases in po

29、lice and the number of prisoners and crime is necessary. For example, the police force in New York City grew by 35 percent in the 1990s, the numbers of prison inmates rose 24 percent, and there were demographic changes,

30、including a decline in the number of youths. High crime rates lead cities to hire more police, not that police cause crime. Similarly, when crime is rising, prison populations also tend to rise. This is not surprising.&l

31、t;/p><p>　　Juvenile Crime Rates are Related to Punishment. Between 1978 and 1993,a walk around the streets of New York, Houston, Los Angeles, and just about any other major city confirms what the headlines tell

32、 us: crime is down. Yet the overall good news on crime is marred by a soaring juvenile crime rate. For instance, the rate at which juveniles were arrested for murder rose 177 percent between 1978 and 1993 even as the mur

33、der arrest rate for adults dropped by 7 percent. Over the same time span, the vio</p><p>　　Levitt studies the relationship between crime and punishment for juveniles. The severities of juvenile punishment ha

34、ve some implications for juvenile crimes.</p><p>　　Specifically, over the last two decades, juvenile crime has grown at a much faster rate than adult crime. During that same period, the adult prison populati

35、on has grown dramatically, but the number of juveniles in custody has not.</p><p>　　He asks whether the striking divergence between the adult and juvenile crime rates is a rational response by teenagers to t

36、he likelihood and severity of punishment. For instance, by at least one crude measure (the ratio of adult state and federal prisoners per violent crime committed in that year compared to the corresponding ratio for juven

37、iles), criminal sanctions against youngsters were comparable to those for adults in 1978. But they were only half as severe by 1993. Levitt finds that change</p><p>　　A number of important results emerge in

38、his wide-ranging paper. For instance, state level data strongly suggest that lower rates of juvenile crime are associated with stiffer punishments.</p><p>　　It's hard not to conclude after reading Levitt

39、's paper that stiff sanctions will do the job when it comes to combating youth crime. But Levitt is careful to emphasize that his analysis does not suggest a clear public policy response--more needs to be known about

40、 what works and what doesn't among the different kinds of juvenile treatment programs.</p><p>　　Higher Youth Wages Mean Lower Crime Rates. "...a 20 percent drop in wages leads to a 12 to 18 percent

41、increase in youth participation in crime." According to a recent study on Market Wages and Youth Crime (NBER Working Paper No. 5983) by NBER Faculty Research Fellow Jeffrey Grogger, there is a strong relationship be

42、tween wage levels and criminal behavior, which explains why, over the past 20 years, crime rates for young men have increased while their wages have decreased. This also at least part</p><p>　　Fewer Guns Mea

43、n Fewer Gun Homicides. "About one-third of the gun-homicide decline since 1993 is explained by the fall in gun ownership."</p><p>　　Increases in gun ownership lead to a higher gun-homicid

44、e rate and legislation allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons does not reduce crime, according to a recent NBER Working Paper No.0054186 by Mark Duggan.</p><p>　　In theory, the effect of gun

45、ownership on crime is ambiguous. If criminals are deterred from committing crimes when potential victims are more likely to possess a firearm, then more gun ownership may lead to a reduction in criminal activity. If inst

46、ead guns increase the payoff to criminal activity, or simply increase the likelihood thatany particular confrontation will result in a victim's death, then an increase in gun ownership will tend to increase the crime

47、 rate.</p><p>　　Duggan finds that state and county-level changes in the rate of gun ownership are positively related to changes in the homicide rate. His findings suggest that gun ownership causes crime, and

48、 does not simply reflect individuals purchasing guns in response to increases in criminal activity. In support of this, he finds that increases in gun ownership are positively related to future increases in the gun homic

49、ide rate, but bear no corresponding relationship to non-gun homicides. His findings revea</p><p>　　Crime Prevention Advice: How you can prevent crime? Not all crime is preventable, but there are things you c

50、an do to make it much less likely that you'll be victimised.</p><p>　　Specifically, the immediate decreases in crime -- roughly half of the overall decline -- therefore must be attributable to deterrence

51、. Criminals, fearing the harsher sentences that awaited them, reduced their illegal activity.</p><p>　　Sentence Enhancements Reduce Crime. "The law requiring longer sentences has been effective in lower

52、ing crime. Within three years, crimes covered by the law fell an estimated 8 percent. Seven years after the law changed, these crimes were down 20 percent."</p><p>　　In recent years, almost every state

53、has adopted some form of "sentence enhancements" as a way to fight crime. These laws come under a variety of names including determinate sentencing laws, and repeat-offender enhancements. Regardless of the name

54、, they all share one common feature: stiffer punishments for offenders committing the most serious crimes.</p><p>　　Daniel Kessler and Steven Levitt analyze the outcome of one such law, they find that the la

55、w requiring longer sentences has been effective in lowering crime.(NBER Working Paper No. 6484)</p><p>　　The fact that the impact of the law's change continued to grow steadily over time suggests that in

56、capacitation also helped to reduce crime. Because convicted criminals were serving longer sentences, years after the law's change they were still locked up, rather than out on the streets committing crime.</p>

57、<p>　　On the other hand, if incapacitation is the only effect, then such laws can lead to the imprisonment of individuals long after their active criminal years are over. Such a geriatric prison population is an ex

58、tremely inefficient use of resources, since criminal activity declines rapidly as individuals age. The fact that both deterrence and incapacitation play an important role in reducing crime．</p><p>　　The auth

59、ors conclude that sentence enhancements that are broader in scope and less punitive, may ultimately prove more effective in fighting crime than the three-strikes laws since the former are more likely to actually be enfor