大壩安全監(jiān)控中若干不確定性問題的分析方法與應(yīng)用研究.pdf

1、河海大學(xué)博士學(xué)位論文大壩安全監(jiān)控中若干不確定性問題的分析方法與應(yīng)用研究姓名：楊杰申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：博士專業(yè)：水工結(jié)構(gòu)工程指導(dǎo)教師：吳中如20060901英文摘要AbstractTheuncertaintyproblemsindamsafHymonitoringwerestudiedinthisdissertationBasedonregardingdamanditsbedrockasalluncertaintysystem，theinter

2、nationalactualityofcorrelativeresearchwasreviewedandthencloselycombiningwithengineeringpracticeumptyanalysesmethodsandtheirapplicationsforuncertaintyproblemsindamsafetymonitoringwerestudiedTheresearchcontentsandmainresul

3、tsacquiredareaSfollows：(1)TheresearchthouthtWasputforwardfortheuncertaintyproblemsstudyingindarnsafetymonitoringandabasicflamesystemforuncertaintyproblemsresearchwassetup，whichtakestheuncertaintydammonitodngsystemasstudy

4、objeet，mainlyutilizesuncertaintymathmatiesasestimationmethods，andregardsthemodelsimulationandforeastofuncertaintyinformationasthecoreofstudyingAtthesalnetimethebasicprinciples，theoriesmodelingmethodsandsteps，modelprecisi

5、onanditsevaluatingstandardswerestudied(2)BasedonuncertaintyinverseanalysesonmaterialparametersthestudiesonfiducialmonitoringstatecorrectionwerecarriedoutABayesianuncertaintyinverseanalysismethodbasedOilPOME(PrincipleofMa

6、ximumEn打opy)wasadvancedforcalculatingoptimizationmaterialparametersofdanaconcreteandthebedrockThenbyutilizingthecorrectingmethodsoffuzzyclusteringandanalogyproposed，theoptimizationmaterialparametersgainedWelt七usedtocorre

7、ctthefiducialmonitoringstates，whicheffectivelyovercomesthedeficiencyofpresentmethodonlyaccordingtoengineersexperienceandsettlesthebasefordamsafetyanalysisandevaluation(3)Aimedatthemulticollinearityamongindependentvariabl

8、efactorsandtherelevantuncertaintyproblemsofdamsafetymonitoringandcontrolmodel，thepartialleastsquaresregressionuncertaintyanalysis伊LSRUA)methodforsyntheticalanalysiswasproposedtosimulateandanalyzeobservationdataThePLSRmod

9、elsimulationmethodwasintegratedwithuncertaintyanalysisofdataconnotationindamsafetymonitoring，whichsolvestheprevalentproblemofaccuracyoftheleastsquaresregressionmodelalwaysbeingaffectedbyindependentvariablesmulticollinear

10、ity(4)ResearchesondistemperdamfailureriskandlifelossforecastfordamuncertaintysystemwerecarriedoutAnanalysismethodofgreystochasticriskprobabilitywasputforwardtoestimatedamfailureriskTheriskprobabilityobtainedfallsinagreys

11、pace，whichsatisfactorilyreflectstheuncertaintyindamfailureriskFurthermore，basedonsystematicalanalysesontheuncertaintyfactorswhichaffectthelifelossforecastindamfailurethelifelosspredictingmethodaccordingtotheestimationofp

12、robabilityvaluesoflifelosswereproposedandthesuggestionvaluesfor15kindsoffloodscenescausedbydamfailureweregived，whichovercomestheforecastshortagesimplyutilizingmathematicsmodelKeywords：uncertainty，damsafetymonitoring，fidu