食品飲料行業(yè)白酒名酒需求持續(xù)強勁，啤酒艱難升級

1、請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明2目錄目錄白酒：名酒強者恒強白酒：名酒強者恒強............................................................................................................................................................3白酒營收

2、增速步入合理區(qū)間，產品結構繼續(xù)升級...............................................................................................................3銷售費用率下降....................................................................................

3、..................................................................................4行業(yè)盈利能力繼續(xù)提升，主要為名酒帶動.......................................................................................................................

4、....5行業(yè)議價能力增強，整體現(xiàn)金流良好...................................................................................................................................7啤酒：結構升級是核心的增長動力啤酒：結構升級是核心的增長動力.....................................

5、................................................................................................918年銷量下降，1Q19銷量恢復增長，銷量增長的持續(xù)性有待觀擦................................................................................9行業(yè)整體盈利能力緩慢提

6、升，地域龍頭盈利增長更為顯著.............................................................................................10現(xiàn)金流整體良好........................................................................................................

7、............................................................11圖表圖表圖表1:全行業(yè)及各檔次營收增速...........................................................................................................................................

8、.....3圖表2:全行業(yè)及各檔次毛利率..................................................................................................................................................3圖表3:各個白酒公司營收及YoY.....................................

9、..........................................................................................................4圖表4:各個白酒公司銷售費用情況.................................................................................................

10、.........................................4圖表5:各個白酒公司管理費用情況..........................................................................................................................................5圖表6:全行業(yè)及各檔次凈利潤同比增速.....

11、...............................................................................................................................5圖表7:全行業(yè)及各檔凈利率...............................................................................

12、.......................................................................5圖表8:各個白酒公司歸母凈利及YoY..................................................................................................................................

13、.....6圖表9:各個白酒公司ROE..........................................................................................................................................................7圖表10:各個白酒公司預收賬款及YoY...........................

14、..........................................................................................................7圖表11:各個白酒公司經營性現(xiàn)金流凈額及YoY..........................................................................................

15、...........................8圖表12:龍頭公司營收增速..........................................................................................................................................................9圖表13:龍頭公司營收增速...........

16、...............................................................................................................................................9圖表14:龍頭公司營收和銷量表現(xiàn)............................................................

17、................................................................................9圖表15:龍頭公司毛利率...............................................................................................................................

18、.............................10圖表16:龍頭公司毛利率............................................................................................................................................................10圖表17:龍頭公司費用情況......

19、................................................................................................................................................10圖表18:龍頭公司凈利潤增速............................................................

20、........................................................................................11圖表19:龍頭公司凈利潤增速....................................................................................................................

21、................................11圖表20:龍頭公司凈利潤率........................................................................................................................................................11圖表21:龍頭公司凈利潤率......

22、..................................................................................................................................................11圖表22:龍頭公司經營性現(xiàn)金流凈額情況.....................................................

23、.........................................................................11圖表23:白酒可比公司估值表...................................................................................................................................

24、...............12圖表24:啤酒可比公司估值表..................................................................................................................................................12中金公司研究部中金公司研究部:2019年5月15日請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律

25、聲明請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明4個次高端毛利率的提升，但山西汾酒2018年毛利率下降3.6ppt到66.2%，而1Q19則毛利率恢復增長1ppt到71.9%；地產酒中，順鑫農業(yè)2018年毛利率提升6ppt到39.9%，但由于非酒業(yè)務的拖累，導致1Q19毛利率下滑4.8ppt到38.4%；金種子和迎駕貢酒的毛利率均有小幅下滑。圖表3:各個白酒公司營收及YoY資料來源：公司年報，中金公司研究部銷售費用率下降銷售費用率下降行業(yè)競爭加

26、劇致使銷售費用增加明顯，但茅臺和五糧液是例外。行業(yè)競爭加劇致使銷售費用增加明顯，但茅臺和五糧液是例外。白酒行業(yè)20181Q19銷售費用同比增長1523%；20181Q19銷售費用率為10.79.8%，同比分別下降10ppt，主要因為行業(yè)營收加速增長攤薄費用率。次高端用強促銷帶營收增長，銷售費用率普遍高企。茅臺的強品牌拉力帶來銷售費用和銷售費用率的逆勢下降，20181Q19銷售費用分別下降13.97.8%，且銷售費用率分別下降1.61.2

27、ppt到3.33.9%；五糧液20181Q19銷售費用率分別下降2.60ppt到9.47.2%，五糧液重新定位大眾高端、品質品牌提升正被消費者快速接受。行業(yè)整體管理能力和效率在提升。行業(yè)整體管理能力和效率在提升。全行業(yè)20181Q19管理費用率分別下降10.2ppt到6.65.1%。其中五糧液、汾酒、舍得和今世緣的管理費用率下降較明顯。百萬元百萬元20172018YoY1Q181Q19YoY貴州茅臺610637719926.4%1839

28、52248122.2%五糧液301874003032.6%138981759026.6%瀘州老窖103951305525.6%3370416923.7%名酒總和10164413028528.2%356634424024.1%山西汾酒6037938255.4%3240405825.2%舍得酒業(yè)1638221235.0%52069734.1%水井坊2048281937.6%74893024.2%酒鬼酒878118735.1%26534630

29、.5%洋河股份199182416021.3%95381089014.2%次高端總和305213976030.3%143111692118.2%古井貢酒6968868624.7%2560366943.3%今世緣2957374126.5%1492195531.1%口子窖3603426918.5%125013629.0%老白干酒2535358341.3%738114955.8%金種子酒129013151.9%3072896.1%迎駕貢酒313