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1、SWSResearchCo.LtdisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecurities.99EastNanjingRoadShanghai|862123297818IndustryResearchBringingChinatotheWldAfterupgradingoursectratingtoOverweightinJune2016bankingstocksachievedbothabsoluterelat

2、ivepositivereturnsin2H16onthebackofimprovingassetquality.In2017thesectreptedabsolutepositivereturnsthankstostabilisedfundamentals.In2018listedbankspostedrelativepositivereturnsarisingstimulusexpectations.Howeverlookingin

3、to2019weexpecttheperfmanceofbankingstockstobeaffectedbynarrowinginterestmargins(NIMs)increasingassetqualityriskrisingcapitalpressure.AsaresultwedowngradeoursectratingfromOverweighttoEqualweight.NarrowingNIMs.In2017aserie

4、softighteningmeasuresledtointerestratehikes.Since2018howeverChina’smoarypolicyhasimprovedliquidityintheinterbankmarketledtodeclininginterbankratesalthoughloanbondyieldskeptrisingduetoshadowbankingregulation.Givenadeteria

5、tingloanstructureatheeconomicslowdownweanticipatedownwardpressureonloanbondyieldswhilethedownsidepotentialfinterbankratesremainslimited.TherefeweexpecttoseenarrowingNIMsin2019.Givenrisingexpectationsofinterestratecutsaac

6、autiouseconomicoutlookwethinkNIMsmaydeclineby7bpsduetoloanrepricingrigiddemdepositrates.Increasingassetqualityrisk.WenoteAsharecompanies’defaultraterealnonperfmingloan(NPL)ratiokeptdecliningfrom11.5%7.7%in2015to3.2%2.2%i

7、n3Q17respectivelyduetotheimprovedprofitabilityofsectswithexcesscapacity.Since4Q17howeverbothratiosgraduallyroseto3.8%2.6%in3Q18respectivelyduetotightenedregulationstradefrictions.OurmacroteamfecastsGDPYoYgrowthtodecelera

8、tefrom6.7%in18Eto6.4%in19Ewithatroughat6.2%in1Q19Eduetoweakexptsinvestmentgrowth.Assumingtotalloansgrowthof12%YoYNPLgrowthof30%YoYweexpecttherealNPLratiotoincreaseto3.2%asofend2019E.Wealsonoterisingassetqualityuncertaint

9、yfromprivatemicrosizedfirms.AccdingtoPBoCnewloansofferedtoprivatecompaniesaccountedf15%ofnewcpateloansin2016.TheaverageNPLratiooflargemediumsmallmicrosizedcompaniesreaches1.10%2.52%2.69%2.62%respectively.Indertoraisethep

10、roptionofnewloansofferedtoprivatefirmsto50%bankswillhavetoofferRmb13.5tninadditionalloanstoprivatecompaniesoverthenextthreeyearswhichmayleadtorisingliquiditycreditrisks.Risingcapitalpressure.InNovember2015theFinancialSta

11、bilityBoardraisedcapitalrequirementsf“globalsystematicallyimptantbanks”(GSIBs)imposingatotallossabsbingcapacity(TLAC)ofatleast20%fIndustrial1398:HK–Notrated)19.5%fChinaConstructionBank(CCB939:HK–Notrated)19.5%fAgricultur

12、alBankofChina(ABC1288:HK–Notrated)20%fBankofChina(BOC3988:HK–Notrated)byend2025atotalcapitaladequacyratio(CAR)ofatleast14.81%fICBC16.23%fCCB14.99%fABC14.16%fBOCbyend3Q18.UnderourbasecasescenarioassuminganeightyearprofitC

13、agrof6%adividendpayoutratioof30%aneightyearriskweightedassetsCagrof7%theCARofthefourlargebankswouldbelowerthantherequirementby4.15pptsonaverageinend2025(equivalenttoRmb941bn).Assuchweexpectthefourbanks’refinancingdemtoav

14、erageRmb134bneveryyearleadingtomarketconcernsaboutdeceleratingassetgrowthdecliningdividendpayoutratiosrisingrefinancingpressure.DowngradetoEqualweight.HongKonglistedbanksaretradingat0.69x18EPB0.62x19EPBvs0.46xinFebruary2

15、0160.52xinMarch20140.59xinOctober20110.64xinOctober2008.GivenChina’seconomicslowdownthemoderatingmarginaleffectofpolicyrelaxationweexpectsectvaluationrecoverytobelimitedin2019.Werecommendinvestslookatpairtrades.Wefavourb

16、ankswithprudentassetptfoliosriskmanagementaswellasstrongcapitalpositionslikeChinaMerchantsBank(CMB3968:HK–Outperfm)CCBstateownedbankswithlowvaluationslikeBankofCommunications(BOCOM3328:HK–Notrated)ChinaCITICBank(998:HK–O

17、utperfm).HoweverwearecautiousaboutbankswithaggressiveassetptfoliosweakriskmanagementlikeChinaMinshengBanking(CMBC1988:HK–Hold).18Dec2018IndFig2:Decliningnonstardizedfinancing3000250020001500100050001400120010008006004002

18、000200400600800IncrementalRMBloansTotalnonstardizedfinancing(RHS)Source:WindSWSResearchTheaverageincrementallongtermenterpriseloansin11M18reachedRMB491bnascomparedtomonthlyaverageofRMB532bnin2017RMB348bnin2016whiletheave

19、rageincrementallongtermhouseholdloansreachedRMB422bnascomparedtomonthlyaverageofRMB442bnin2017RMB473bnin2016.AverageshttermhouseholdloansincreasedtoRMB205bnascomparedtomonthlyaverageofRMB153bnin2017RMB54bnin2016.Averageb

20、illsdiscountincreasedtoRMB141bnascomparedtomonthlyaverageofRMB132bnin2017RMB75bnin2016.Fig3:Decliningnonstardfinancing160014001200100080060040020002004002016201711M2018Source:WindSWSResearchRMBbnRMBbnIncrementalRMBloansH

21、ouseholdshtHouseholdlongInstitutionalshtDiscountedbillstermloanstermloanstermloansInstitutionallongtermloans(RHS)Jan08May08Sep08Jan09May09Sep09Jan10May10Sep10Jan11May11Sep11Jan12May12Sep12Jan13May13Sep13Jan14May14Sep14Ja

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