熱帶大氣季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩的預(yù)報(bào)及其對(duì)中國東部冬季降水異常的影響.pdf

1、南京信息工程大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文熱帶大氣季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩的預(yù)報(bào)及其對(duì)中國東部冬季降水異常的影響姓名：朱紅蕊申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：氣候系統(tǒng)與全球變化指導(dǎo)教師：江志紅20090501AbstractUsingtheSingularSpectrumAnalysis(SSA)andAuto—regression(AR)model，ashorttermpredictionaheadoftimeondailymeanindexofMaddenJuliano

2、scillation(MJO)seriesismadeinthecontextofadaptivefilteringinthispaperAndthenusetheindex，thevariationsinthewintertimeprecipitationovereastofChinaandtherelatedlargescalecirculationassociated、航ththeMJOareexaminedTheresultsa

3、resummarizedasfollows：(1)TheSSA—ARmodelisveryefficienttoforecasttheMJOindexforaperiodofadvanced1—20daysFora20dayforecast，thecorrelationcoefficientbetweenthepredictedandvalidatingobservations，asaveragedforthetwoindices，wa

4、s05，whichiSbetterthantheresultofARmodelTherefore，theforecastskillsofthisSSAARpredictionschemearesteadyanditsindependentsampletestandrealpredictionpossesshighprecisionTheSSAAR(A)indicatestheamplitudesofMJOverywell，andtheS

5、SAAR(B)isbetter塒t11theeastwardpropagationIFwerevisefurthertheSSA—ARschemethenitispossiblethatitbecomesanefficientmodelofoperationalforecastforMJO(2)TheMJOsignificantlymodulatesthedistributionofwintertimeprecipitationover

6、eastofChinaTheprecipitationratedifferencebetweenwetanddryperiodsovereastofChinawhichisobviouslyCanbefoundinphase2—3andphase67whenthecentersofMJOconvectiveactivitiesarelocatedovertheIndianOceanandwesternPacific，respective

7、ly，reaches1525mmday～，whichcorrespondstotheclimatologicalwintermeanvalueThefrequenciesofrainydays(daysonwhichthedailyrainfallisgreaterthanO1mm)andheavyraindays(daysonwhichtherainintensityiswithinthetop10％amongalltherainyd