基于廣義Pareto分布理論下的高溫閾值選取.pdf

1、目一錄中文摘要1Abstract2第一章引言411研究現(xiàn)狀412本文主要研究工作5第二章廣義Pareto分布理論721經(jīng)典的極值理論722廣義Pareto分布。lO第三章廣義Pareto分布的參數(shù)估計及閾值選取。1331基于廣義Pareto分布的罰函數(shù)法的參數(shù)估計1332基于廣義Pareto分布的閾值選取1433模型檢驗的方法15第四章閾值模型在氣候中的應(yīng)用及重現(xiàn)水平1741重現(xiàn)水平圖1742模型在極端溫度方面的一些應(yīng)用17參考文獻24

2、致謝27揚州大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文TheChoiceofTheTemperatureThresholdValueBasedonTheGeneralizedParetoDistributionAbstractAccordingtecentstatistics，theeconomiclossescausedbyglobalclimatechangeandrelatedextremeweatherandclimateeventshaveincrea

3、sedbyanaverageof10timesinthepast40yearsAsfarasChinaiSconcerned，duetoextremeweathereventsandweatherdisasterscausedbynaturaldisastersaccountedfor70％oftheaboveTheresultsshowthattheglobalwarmingcausedbyhumanfactorsalmostthes

4、anleasnaturalfactors，evenmorethantheamplitudeofnaturalclimatesystemThefrequencyandintensityoftheextremeweathereventarechangingHowever，foralongtime，thereisalittleresearchonextremehappenedSOthatthefieldisasaweaklinktothecl

5、imatechangeresearchAsaseriesoftheextremeclimateshappened，peopletrytomaketheaccuratejudgmentsandprojectionstotheextremeeventsTodeterminethresholdvalueUiscriticalItisa：：，lprerequisitetoestimateparametersforfurtherstudyThea

6、rticlebased011thegeneralizedParetodistributiontheorytochoicethethresholdvalueHoweverintheGPDmodel，howtoselecttheappropriatethresholdvalueisaproblemIfthresholdvalueistoosmall，theamountofdatabeinganalyzedwillincreaseestima

7、torwillbebiasedestimateOntheotherhand，thethresholdvalueistoolarge，theamountofdataforanalyzingwillreduce，thebiasofanalysiswillreducethedataistooliRletoincreasethevarianceofestimationHowtoselecttheappropriatethreshold，itis

8、atroublehasbeenplaguedwithextremeresearchersAtfirst，thisarticlemainlyintroducedthethreelimitdistributionsofextremevaluetheoremandthecorrelationcontents。thenintroducedmodelingthresholdexcesses，basedontheGeneralizedParetoD

9、istributiontheoryThen，weintroducetheparameterestimationmethodofpenaltyfunctions，estimatedtheparametersofdensityfunctionofthegeneralizedParetodistributionWiththeaverageremaininglifefigureandautomaticselectionmethodtochoic

10、ethethresholdvalue，comparedtheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofbothmethods，andapplyingtoactualtemperaturedatagetthedesiredresultsCurrentlytheinternationalclimatechangeresearchintheextremeisthemostcommonvalueof5％thresholdasane