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1、The effect of export tax rebates on export performance: Theory and evidence from ChinaChien-Hsun CHEN a, Chao-Cheng MAI b,*, Hui-Chuan YU ca Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, 75 Chang-Hsing St., Taipei 10671,
2、Taiwan b Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics, Tamkang University and Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica, 128 Sec. 2, Academia Rd., Nankang, Taipei 11529, Taiwan c Graduate Institut
3、e of Industrial Economics, Tamkang University, Tamsui 25137, TaiwanReceived 15 October 2004; accepted 1 June 2005AbstractThis paper develops a Cournot quantity competition model to examine the effect of export tax rebate
4、 policy on export performance. The main conclusions drawn are as follows: (i) when a government raises the export rebate rate, the output of final goods for export by the domestic firm increases, while the output of the
5、foreign competitor decreases; (ii) when a government raises the export rebate rate, the profit of the domestic firm increases, while that of the foreign competitor decreases; and (iii) the optimum export rebate rate is p
6、ositive and greater than 1, indicating that the domestic government not only refunds fully the custom duties paid by the domestic firm on imported intermediate goods, but also offers export subsidies for its export of fi
7、nal goods. To corroborate the conclusions drawn based on the theoretical model, empirical analysis was carried out using the statistical data of China from 1985 to 2002. The test results of Spearman rank correlation coef
8、ficient show that China’s export tax rebate policy has significant positive correlation with its exports, final domestic consumption, and foreign exchange reserve. D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.JEL classificat
9、ion: F1; H2; P3 Keywords: Export tax rebate; Cournot quantity competition model; China’s export1043-951X/$ - see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2005.06.001* Corresponding auth
10、or. Tel.: +886 2 2782 1693x130; fax: +886 2 2785 4160. E-mail address: ccmai@gate.sinica.edu.tw (C.-C. Mai).China Economic Review 17 (2006) 226–235that time. Thus from 1997 on, China lifted the rebate rates several times
11、 and implemented a four-tiered rebate system from July 1, 1999 (17%, 15%, 13%, and 5%) with an average rate of 15% in the hopes of boosting exports and easing the pressure of renminbi depreciation. But in October 2003, t
12、he Chinese government implemented an average 3% reduction of export tax rebate rates, from 15.11% to 12.11%, and further announced that a five-rate system, i.e., 17%, 13%, 11%, 8%, and 5%, would be implemented starting i
13、n 2004. The rates of 5% and 13% applied to farm produce remained unchanged, while the rate for farm produce that were deep processed, such as wheat powder and corn powder was raised from 5% to 13%. The rate for some mech
14、anical and electrical products, apparel and cotton textile products dropped from 17% to 13%. The rebate for some natural resource products, e.g., crude oil and log was cancelled, and the rebate rate for some other natura
15、l resources fell from 8% to 5%. Export goods affected most in this latest round of export tax rebate reform are the home appliance, mechanical/electrical, and cotton textile sectors. Furthermore, the rebate is split betw
16、een the central and local governments in the ratio of 75% to 25%. This new measure aims to alleviate the fiscal burden of the central government and the renminbi appreciation pressure. Currently available literatures on
17、export tax rebate policies are scarce. Liu and Weng (1998)utilized a partial equilibrium model to analyze the effect of export tax rebates and found that rebates could expand domestic output, promote exports, and enhance
18、 the ability of foreign suppliers to price intermediate goods. But their study did not take into account the interdependency between domestic firms and foreign suppliers in the final goods market. Chao, Chou, & Yu (2
19、001) used a general equilibrium approach to build a theoretical model and concluded that an export tax rebate policy could boost exports and help expand upstream and downstream industries, but would lead to rising unempl
20、oyment, lower tax revenues, and a lower level of consumer surplus. Chao et al. also used partial analysis to generate an export demand equation for empirical study, in which China’s statistical data (1985–1998) and error
21、 correction model (ECM) were employed to examine the correlation between long-term export demand and the export tax rebate, real foreign income, and relative price index. But the short time series, small degree of freedo
22、m of data, and the relatively small sample size (n =14) made the empirical results lacking in interpretability. Moreover, the two papers mentioned above did not touch upon the issue of optimum export tax rebate rate. To
23、remedy these shortcomings, this study aims to develop a Cournot quantity competition model to examine the effect of lower export tax rebate rates on export performance and derive the optimum rebate rate, and based on the
24、 theoretical model constructed, carry out empirical analysis using the statistical data of China. In the following sections, this paper will develop a Cournot duopoly model to explore the theoretical effect of export tax
25、 rebate, followed by examining the effect of the rebate policy on exports with Spearman rank correlation coefficient in a nonparametric test. In the last section of the paper, conclusions drawn from the study are present
26、ed.2. The effect of an export tax rebate systemFrom a strategic perspective, Brander and Spencer (1985) incorporated an international Cournot duopoly into a bthird marketQ model in which one domestic firm and one foreign
27、 firm produce a homogeneous product and compete in a third country market. They found that an export subsidy is optimal by shifting part of the foreign firm’s profits to the domestic firm and therefore raising the nation
28、al welfare. Based on the theoretical framework of Brander and Spencer (1985), this study builds a simple model to examine the effect of an export tax rebate on export performance.C.-H. Chen et al. / China Economic Review
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